Challenge Questions

[timokay]

Part of my reason for wanting to submit more than one claim in the application is to simplify. Both claims could be tested in one day, at one location; I could make just one trip to Florida instead of two; and JREF could be finished with me in one fell swoop.

I was going on the assumption that there's a million-dollar prize for each successfully proven claim, so why not go for it all in one day, and have it over with?

Because you have yet to create a satisfactory protocol for even one of your claims.
Just focus on Claim A first, and do not get sidetracked discussing the other ones. If you succeed in creating a really simple and effective protocol, then you could consider moving on to the next one.

 

[Steven Howard]

It would help me if I knew who would be expected to do the recruiting of subjects. If that would be me, and if the final testing has to be done in Florida, and I don't live anywhere near Florida, it presents quite a logistical problem.

From the main challenge page:

Preliminary tests are usually conducted by associates of the JREF at the site where the applicant lives.

So the preliminary test will take place at a location convenient to you. As for who's responsible for recruiting subjects, I think that's generally spelled out as part of the formal protocol.

 

[oddball]

Strangely, every time I try to quote anyone's post in a reply in this thread, only the Rasmus' #17 appears on the next page.

Timokay, you wrote "If you succeed in creating a really simple and effective protocol, then you could consider moving on to the next one."

Yes. It's just that I'd rather not have to wait a year to do it. Would I be required to wait a year if I win the prize? Would there be another prize to claim if I won on the first go? I need to know these answers before deciding how to proceed.

 

[timokay]

Strangely, every time I try to quote anyone's post in a reply in this thread, only the Rasmus' #17 appears on the next page.

Timokay, you wrote "If you succeed in creating a really simple and effective protocol, then you could consider moving on to the next one."

Yes. It's just that I'd rather not have to wait a year to do it. Would I be required to wait a year if I win the prize? Would there be another prize to claim if I won on the first go? I need to know these answers before deciding how to proceed.

Oddball, I am saying that we should only discuss and help you formulate only one claim at a time. The discussion is going to be derailed by the discussion of your claims regarding cancer and raising from the dead, which, I agree, are more fantastic claims. But claim A is one that has some precedent, so if you work with us, we can help you formulate your protocol.

If you focus the discussion on just one claim at a time, then perhaps you can actually fufill a test protocol, which is the goal right? Once you get just one protocol finished and submitted, then you can work on the next claim.

Whether or not you can test all your claims on the same day, for multiple prizes is a different issue, and could probably be answered by a moderator very simply.

 

[oddball]

This time I used the Reply button instead of the Quote button, and I *still* got the Rasmus post Hmmm .... Maybe that's paranormal right there, and the prize would belong to ... the developers of VBulletin? JREF's web host? Rasmus?

Claim A has some precedent, you say. I'd like to see that.

I can see your point about derailing the discussion. Maybe there should be a thread for each potential Claim But isn't it part of the process in this case to analyze the pros and cons of each proposal in relation to the others?

At this stage I am feeling most inclined toward choosing Claim B, and have a few ideas for making the proposed protocol more workable. One thing is I can agree to wear a blindfold, to exclude the possibility that I was somehow reading body language and/or facial expression well enough to see that "this person looks so gloomy, I bet s/he suspects s/he is doomed, and is in a lot of pain" and thus probably has cancer. Doing so would disable me from writing notes on the cards, but there may be a way around that, such as, after the person walks away, I can sit down in a little curtained-off booth and make notes about them before the next person comes up.

Alternatively - and this might solve a major logistical problem with Claim B - the Referee and someone from JREF could accompany me to a big hospital if the hospital agrees to allow me to be led, blindfolded, from room to room for a quick visit with 60 or more sick people, at least 10% of whom are undergoing cancer treatment. We could pause between visits for me to write my notes. It might even be harder for JREF to cheat doing it that way, as opposed to having the cancer patients gather in a central test location.

It might also be convenient to visit a big hospital for a chance to test Claim C. I think it's a good bet that a lot of people die in hospitals on a daily basis. Some if not all hospitals have autopsy facilities, so there might be a ripe opportunity to test Claim C. I can't really imagine any hospital personnel above the level of janitor agreeing to allow such a test in their facility, but it might be worth looking into.

 

[steenkh]

I could make just one trip to Florida instead of two; and JREF could be finished with me in one fell swoop.

As other have pointed out, you will not need to make any trips to Florida at all.

I was going on the assumption that there's a million-dollar prize for each successfully proven claim, so why not go for it all in one day, and have it over with?

There is only one prize. The only reason why you should want to be tested for more than one claim is if you are not confident that you can perform what you claim.

Also, the JREF will definitely ask you to concentrate on a single claim. We have seen it before.

Take one claim and do it well. Test yourself again and again, as realistically as possible.

 

[nathan]

wrt more than one claim]
See my reply to Rasmus.

I think you may have missed my point.
1) the JREF will accept ONE application from you per year
2) an application has to claim ONE thing

If you apply with two claims, you're either saying 'my claim is that I can do A and I can do B', which is just making it harder for you. Or it is saying 'my claim is that I can do A or I can do B', which is really two separate claims.

In either case a complex claim makes protocol negotiation harder.

I'm not sure it would be so. "A" would require fewer volunteer subjects but might be harder to work out a protocol for. "B" is probably simpler in terms of working out the protocol but might be more difficult to gather enough of the kind of volunteers needed.

I respectfully disagree But, it's going to be between you and the JREF to sort out. Nothing will happen in that regard until you apply.

It would help me if I knew who would be expected to do the recruiting of subjects. If that would be me, and if the final testing has to be done in Florida, and I don't live anywhere near Florida, it presents quite a logistical problem.

That's for protocol negotiation to determine. Nothing will happen in that regard until you apply.

On the other hand, there's a good chance that at least a dozen of the 60 or more needed to test Claim B would be fitting subjects for Claim A, and testing both claims at the same day could take advantage of that factor.

Like I said, that's for you and the JREF to sort out. Nothing will happen in that regard until you apply.

 

[nathan]

Yes. It's just that I'd rather not have to wait a year to do it. Would I be required to wait a year if I win the prize? Would there be another prize to claim if I won on the first go? I need to know these answers before deciding how to proceed.

Um, there's only one prize. If you win it, it's no longer there to be won again.

Whether a new JREF prize is created is unknown. Perhaps the winner of the prize will donate the money to the JREF and they decide to use it for a new prize.

I don't understand why you need to know whether you can reapply after you've won the prize.

You're asking questions only the JREF can answer. That'll only happen if you apply.

As you're determined to make more than one claim on your application, just go ahead and do it. The JREF will do what they will do. They won't do anything until you apply.

 

[nathan]

I can see your point about derailing the discussion. Maybe there should be a thread for each potential Claim But isn't it part of the process in this case to analyze the pros and cons of each proposal in relation to the others?

Yes, that is part of the discussion. That discussion has happened. The overwhelming view is that you should proceed with Claim A first. It is only seems to be you who want to proceed with Claim B first.

You came to this forum for advice about applying. You got that advice, but seem to want to ignore it. That's your call.

At this stage I am feeling most inclined toward choosing Claim B, and have a few ideas for making the proposed protocol more workable. One thing is I can agree to wear a blindfold, to exclude the possibility that I was somehow reading body language and/or facial expression well enough to see that "this person looks so gloomy, I bet s/he suspects s/he is doomed, and is in a lot of pain" and thus probably has cancer. Doing so would disable me from writing notes on the cards, but there may be a way around that, such as, after the person walks away, I can sit down in a little curtained-off booth and make notes about them before the next person comes up. ...

You're already making this protocol complex. You're involving entities outside the JREF, it involve questions of conventional diagnosing of cancer, false negatives of same. I'm fairly sure any any such protocol will require all test subjects to undergo screening for cancer(s).

Your initial description of a protocol for Claim A was very clear, and with the modification I suggested I think it'd take no more than a page to describe robustly.

 

[steenkh]

So, oddball, you have heard our comments to your claims. Do you think you have the information needed to fill in the application form for the challenge?

Remember that you will probably be asked to supply affidavits to show that your claims can also be witnessed by others, and will not just be a waste of time.

If you do write, please post your application and the replies here. The JREF is unfortunately no longer posting the correspondance, and believe me, we are very interested!

 

[drkitten]

I would hope the challenge would continue even if it was won.

Can we expect you to bankroll the next million, then?

 

[Cuddles]

Can we expect you to bankroll the next million, then?

If only academia paid more.

 

[drkitten]

If only academia paid more.

You see the problem, then. I'd love to see the JREF challenge stand as a permanent monument to skeptical thinking and the scientific method....

... and to that end, I pledge Randi and his heirs all the change underneath the passenger seat of my car. Unfortunately I already pledged the driver's seat to the mortgage company, and in exchange they will let me sleep indoors tonight. If I had a couch, I might offer that to the Leaning Tower of Pizza delivery guy so I could eat, too....

 

[Crowbot]

... and to that end, I pledge Randi and his heirs all the change underneath the passenger seat of my car. Unfortunately I already pledged the driver's seat to the mortgage company, and in exchange they will let me sleep indoors tonight. If I had a couch, I might offer that to the Leaning Tower of Pizza delivery guy so I could eat, too....

Got paypal? Dinner is on me.

 

[oddball]

Whether or not you can test all your claims on the same day, for multiple prizes ... could probably be answered by a moderator very simply.

Apparently no moderator has seen my post, or if one has, they didn't take the time to reply. How can I find out who the mods are? I'd like to try sending PMs.

This is an important issue for me. If I can win more than $1m in a matter of a few days, my plans are going to be different than if I know there's only $1m to be won in a given 12-month period, and different still if I know there will never be another $1m to be won from JREF.

Thanks a lot for being so helpful and patient with me so far. I deeply appreciate it.

 

[steenkh]

Apparently no moderator has seen my post, or if one has, they didn't take the time to reply. How can I find out who the mods are? I'd like to try sending PMs.

This is a wrong idea that timokay got started there. The moderators are not involved with the JREF. They are solely here to ensure that the forums are working correctly according to the policy laid out by the JREF.

The only authoritative place you can get some information about how many claims you can test simultaneously is at challenge@randi.org. However, we can tell you with fairly high accuracy that the JREf will test only one claim at a time. James Randi has never said what would happen if the million has been won, but we know that there is approx. 2 million at the challenge account at Goldman Sachs, so it is theoretically possibile that another challenge could be running after the first has been won. At least I think that somebody here said that the latest account statement from Goldman Sachs listed 2 million dollars.

(ETA: There is some possibility that any new challenge would rule out entries from previous winners, so do not hold up your hopes for more than one million)

 

[oddball]

As other have pointed out, you will not need to make any trips to Florida at all.

I'm fairly sure I read somewhere on the website or forum that only the preliminary tests were done at the claimant's location, and the final test requires travel to Florida. If I'm mistaken I wish someone would set me straight on that point.

 

[oddball]

The only authoritative place you can get some information about how many claims you can test simultaneously is at challenge@randi.org.
<snip>
(ETA: There is some possibility that any new challenge would rule out entries from previous winners)

Pardon my ignorance but what does "ETA" stand for?

I'm not too keen on the idea of asking anyone @ randi.org any questions. Maybe things have changed since the first time I tried to communicate directly with JREF but my initial contact was met with such extreme rudeness that I wanted to exhaust other options for getting questions answered before contacting JREF. I sure hope they now have a different person handling email correspondence with applicants.

 

[steenkh]

Pardon my ignorance but what does "ETA" stand for?

ETA: Edited To Add

I edited the post because I had another small point to add, and I thought it was not worth firing off another post withing 20 seconds!

 

[webfusion]

I'm not too keen on the idea of asking anyone @ randi.org any questions.

Uh-Oh. This is a bad harbinger of how oddball intends to approach things.
No application has been formulated yet, and already he's providing the best possible "out" ----- Randi's brusque style (AKA: rudeness).

oddball actually states that:

Maybe things have changed since the first time I tried to communicate directly with JREF but my initial contact was met with such extreme rudeness that I wanted to exhaust other options for getting questions answered before contacting JREF. I sure hope they now have a different person handling email correspondence with applicants.

1. This indicates that oddball has failed to read http://www.internationalskeptics.co...nge thread dealing with the topic in question ---

2. Oddball opened another thread, for ideas and discussion on how to prepare the Application and what to focus on ----- yet, after a few pages, he decided that the thread should be closed
[url="http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1929230&postcount=77]In post #77[/url] ---
"Guys and gals, let's close this thread.... It has become a waste of my time."

3. Rather than do so, he wastes our time further, with posts # 79 and 81 in that thread, and then offers the final words:

"NO THANKS"


Oddball, you have reached the point where it is appropriate (I repeat) for you to take the best advice of all:
Apply or go away.

AGA.

(ps- for the record, AKA = Also Known As)