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Challenge applications

Re: http://dowserdon.blogspot.com/

I don't have an account there, so I'll give my comments here.

The detailed instructions as to how the walkways will be constructed and the trenches dug and filled seem fine to me, though I'm hardly an expert. I do, however, have some questions/issues.

1. You don't give a chronological step-by-step protocol for the whole test.

2. You don't mention anything about the observers also acting as a control group for identifying the trench from any visual clues inadvertantly left. You don't, of course, have to pay attention to this information when judging whether the results of the test justify you proceeding with your application if you don't want to, but I trust you have no problem with us doing it anyway?

3. Having the card chosen beforehand and brought to the site in a sealed envelope seems an unnecessary complication. Maybe I'm missing something, but having the digging party themselves select a card at random to tell them which spot to dig just before they dig it seems adequate to me.

4. Your seem to be describing your intention to do an initial blinded test with two spots, before then going on to the 10 spot one. You can of course do that if you like, but you will then need a third area with a third trench under it for the unblinded test which will still need to be done before you do the 2-spot blinded test. Bear in mind that the unblinded test is to verify that you get a response to your dowsing when you know for certain there is a trench under the spot you are dowsing, it is not a practice run for the 10-spot test.
 
Some further thoughts on the full protocol for the preliminary and final tests, rather than the 25th March pre-test.

You are still talking about using 10 spot walkways with a single trench under each, which will require a great deal of space and plywood when scaled up so that you can beat odds of 1:1000 in the preliminary test (and possibly even greater for the final test). Is there any particular reason why you have rejected the suggestion to have a random number of trenches, say between 0 and 3, under each walkway? It would considerably reduce the amount of space and resources needed to reach the required odds.

You are assuming that you will need to beat odds of 1:1,000,000 in the final test. Whilst some people anticipate that JREF would increase the odds from the 1:1000 required for the preliminary test if anyone ever gets that far, I would be very surprised if they increased them to more than 1:10,000. That would make the total odds beaten across both tests 1 in 10 million, more than high enough I would have thought.

You are also assuming that you will need to travel to the US for the final test. When JREF waived the requirement for a preliminary test for the BBC Horizon team's homeopathy test, that final test was run in the UK. Once JREF had approved the protocol a JREF representative (Randi himself) flew over to observe, with a cheque in his pocket. I see no reason to think similar arrangements could not be made for you if you pass the preliminary test.
 
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Thanks Pixel 42 for the crit.
I've updated some of the wording in the blog to include anyone from the observers to walk slowly along the walkways before I dowse. I suggest that observations are recorded on paper. At the end of the morning we can see my score by dowsing with everyoneelse's score by picking up any subliminal clues from the site. This is important for me too. It is a test of the protocol and if its execution still leaves room for doubt then the protocol will need to be improved before further tests.

Chronology. 1) Anyone who knows where the trenches have been dug is asked to leave the area.
2) Independent witnesses, as above, walk all three test walkways and record their hunches for trench location. I do not watch.
3) In view of all witnesses I walk across the 2-point standard sheets of ply. This shows how the rods move. Videos are taken. I can repeat this until the photographers are happy that they can zoom in to record the rods movement.
4) I dowse the three walkways and others record where I indicate success in finding a hidden trench. Videos to be taken
5) Anyone who was barred from watching me dowse due to their knowing where the trenches were is invited back. I can do a second dowsing demo for them.
6) The plywood is turned back to disclose where the trenches had been dug and where the soil was undisturbed.
7) My success at trench location is assessed.
8) The success of non-dowsers is assessed.
9) If non-dowsers success is significantly better than chance, the protocol needs to be re-assessed before it can be used for a proper JREF trial.
10) Professor French will be asked to assess the dowsers performance.
11) Anyone who is interested can try dowsing, first over the "standard" trench then around the paddock where there are hidden land drains and the route of a hidden water course that until a few years ago, when drought became severe, fed a pond. I'll bring spare dowsing rods.
12) Discussions will decide what the next steps will be.
13) Copies of videos should be made available to me for assessment and use.

Location selection. The use of playing cards like this is similar to the process used by Banachek when testing Sonne. I do not consider it worth trying to change unless it is not rigorous enough.

Why one trench per ten possible locations. I am not without nerves. I'd feel queasy and uncertain if I failed to find a trench in a walkway, even if that was the logical interpretation of my not having had a response from my rods. I do not claim to be the best dowser around but knowing that I should find one trench in a walkway is a comfort. If I missed finding any I would repeat until I found something. Whether that location was correct would be shown when the plywood was removed.
Required odds and country of final test I'm prepared for the worst. If the test is simplified, I'll accept it. If Randi wants to come to the UK to test me that is OK too. He may have more sway with the BBC than I do. No TV producer has shown interest so far. Perhaps videos made on 25th March will interest someone.
 
As "New Blood" I cannot post links to URLs or upload images.
When that tag is removed, can someone advise me whether I could then upload the text and images from blogspot to this forum?
Thanks
 
DowserDon said:
I've updated some of the wording in the blog to include anyone from the observers to walk slowly along the walkways before I dowse.
Click to expand...
Thanks. As I said above, in the formal tests where signs of digging are removed more diligently this control group should not be necessary, but it's a useful sanity check on the blinding for the first use of the protocol.

3) In view of all witnesses I walk across the 2-point standard sheets of ply. This shows how the rods move. Videos are taken. I can repeat this until the photographers are happy that they can zoom in to record the rods movement.
Click to expand...
I see you've now clarified in your protocol at blogspot that which of the two spots has the trench underneath it will be revealed before you do this so it's an unblinded test, thanks for that. The other spot will presumably be muddied like the undug ones on the walkway, so you will be able to confirm that doesn't give you a false positive as per JimOfAllTrades excellent suggestion.

Location selection. The use of playing cards like this is similar to the process used by Banachek when testing Sonne. I do not consider it worth trying to change unless it is not rigorous enough.
Click to expand...
Sonne was actually dowsing playing cards, you are just using them to pick a number between 1 and 10 at random. A ten-sided die or drawing lots would do just as well. There's no need to randomly pick the number until just before the trench is dug, and it does make the test less rigorous in that the envelope with the card in it could be substituted with one containing a card whose number you know before it's opened. Not that I think you would actually do that, but you don't want to give the cynical the slightest excuse for thinking you might have.

Why one trench per ten possible locations. I am not without nerves. I'd feel queasy and uncertain if I failed to find a trench in a walkway, even if that was the logical interpretation of my not having had a response from my rods. I do not claim to be the best dowser around but knowing that I should find one trench in a walkway is a comfort.
Click to expand...
OK, I can understand this. It does make for more materials and hence more expense but if you're happy to meet that expense then it doesn't really make any difference as long as the required odds to be beaten are met.

Required odds and country of final test I'm prepared for the worst. If the test is simplified, I'll accept it. If Randi wants to come to the UK to test me that is OK too. He may have more sway with the BBC than I do. No TV producer has shown interest so far. Perhaps videos made on 25th March will interest someone.
Click to expand...
Sorry, I didn't mean to imply we should get the BBC involved. I just gave that test as an example of JREF being willing to travel to the testee for a final test rather than insisting the testee come to them, it just so happens that the testee in that case was the BBC.

Having said that you could probably expect considerable media interest in the final test if you get that far, but I wouldn't expect any before then.
 
DowserDon said:
As "New Blood" I cannot post links to URLs or upload images.
When that tag is removed, can someone advise me whether I could then upload the text and images from blogspot to this forum?
Thanks
Click to expand...

When you can upload images (after 50 posts, if I recall correctly) I advise you to contact forum admin first to avoid the possibility that you might get pinged for spamming.

Pixel42 has already linked to your blog and I do likewise for clarity.

Just so you know you can post url links after 15 posts, so have at it!
 
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DowserDon... I am rooting for you!

Although skeptical that you really can do this, I nevertheless want to tell you that at least 1 member of this board is hoping you make it.
 
Pixel42 said:
There's no need to randomly pick the number until just before the trench is dug, and it does make the test less rigorous in that the envelope with the card in it could be substituted with one containing a card whose number you know before it's opened. Not that I think you would actually do that, but you don't want to give the cynical the slightest excuse for thinking you might have.
Click to expand...
Point noted. Thanks Pixel 42

realpaladin DowserDon... I am rooting for you!
Although skeptical that you really can do this, I nevertheless want to tell you that at least 1 member of this board is hoping you make it.

Thanks for your encouragement.
Which "board" are you a member of, Realpaladin? Excuse my ignorance.
 
I've had email from DowserDon indicating that the March 25th test is still on, with quite a few observers expected.
 
Update.
My bank balance is considerably smaller as lots of plywood boards and sand have been delivered to site.
I now have constructed a web site (dowserdon.info) to bring all my submissions to this forum together.
Below is a copy of an e-mail to me with some queries and another e-mail with my answers:-
Dear Donald,
>
> I have just emailed xxxxx to make sure he is up-to-date and to clarify
> some matters with him - such as whether you trial can constitute the
> preliminary ASKE test. I don't know if he is coming on the 25th.
>
>
> It seems to me that you protocol is OK. What constitutes a 'pass'? -
> certainly not 1 of the 3 trenches correctly located but 2 of the 3?
>
> So far as the ASKE claim is concerned I foresee the greatest problem is that
> ASKE (the experimenters in the personified sense) must be the only party
> aware of the locations of the target trenches. We cannot simply rely on
> others who know the locations to keep quiet. (I am anticipating criticism
> from other people afterwards if you are successful.) As far as I can see,
> this means that the experimenters must prepare the trenches (in secret of
> course). This is much more work than if all that were required were, say,
> putting pictures in envelopes or shuffling a pack of cards. I am thinking
> of possible ways of addressing this but in the end the decision will have to
> come from xxxxx (in liaison with the other pledgers). I hope we can get this
> sorted soon.
>
> I am really looking forward to attending your demonstration.
>
> Best wishes,
>



Thanks for your e-mail.

Hopefully there will be some members from MK Skeptics Club coming too.
Their Facebook page has some lively discussion on the subject and may be
seen at:
http://www.facebook.com/groups/MK.Skeptics/353173811394788/

Because of the natural scepticism expressed by Club members and others
I am not asking either ASKE or JREF (via Chris French) to consider the
test on the 25th March to be a test of my dowsing skills. I consider it
no more than a test of my proposed protocol.
Because I do not know how dowsing works I may still be trying to
simulate a water course or a service trench wrongly.
All service trenches I've found have been at least 10 metres long,
whereas I am trying to detect a hidden filled trench less than a metre long.
I don't know how settlement affects the signal (whatever it is) that I
respond to, so the time elapsed since the trench was dug may affect the
outcome of the test.
I don't know how deep or how wide a 1 metre trench needs to be for me to
guarantee to find it.
The test on the 25th March will have some variety in how the trench has
been prepared and how hidden from view.

Today I visited the site and could not detect a trench dug one week ago
through 18mm plywood. Fortunately, the field has some ancient land
drains and I could still detect them or else I would have called off
this test.
New trenches will be dug this weekend and I'm hoping that there will be
something positive for the many viewers on the 25th.

I would expect any ASKE or JREF approved test of my skills to be
prepared well away from family influences. I am aware that, certainly
for JREF and IIG West, I might be asked to travel to the USA, so there
is no point in me accepting a test of my dowsing skills that might be
skewed. That is why this test, which is on my son's field, can only be
a test of the protocol to be agreed with ASKE or JREF etc for their
construction elsewhere and at a later time.

There may be a role for your wife. It looks as though the hole might
have to be dug by a machine that will have to be delivered to and
operated by my son, even if the choice of location is chosen by MK
Skeptics. I wonder whether your wife could sit with anyone who knows
where the trenches have been dug, whilst I dowse to ensure they are not
signalling to me secretly. They could go completely off site but I'd
have thought that sitting in the warm where there is no view of the
field might offer a suitable firewall between me and those in the know.

Please contact me if you have any further queries. I look forward to
meeting you.
Regards
DonH

I hope you find these letters illuminating.
Dowserdon
 
DowserDon is of course operating under the assumption that dowsing works, so if he fails to find a trench it's because he hasn't simulated the conditions under which it works accurately enough. As someone who has yet to be convinced it works under any conditions, I observe the apparent inconsistency of his results as he attempts to find the right ones with interest.
 
Pixel42 said:
DowserDon is of course operating under the assumption that dowsing works, so if he fails to find a trench it's because he hasn't simulated the conditions under which it works accurately enough. As someone who has yet to be convinced it works under any conditions, I observe the apparent inconsistency of his results as he attempts to find the right ones with interest.
Click to expand...

You will be attending on 25th March, so you will have the opportunity to see dowsing under field conditions. There are areas in the field where handheld dowsing rods swing. You will have the opportunity to try them yourself. These sites have been there for years. My difficulty is in simulating these in a fortnight. Digging will start this weekend - an excavator has been hired.

The 25th March is designed to refine the protocol.
I assume that you are as critical of Randi's latest protocol and can see the errors in his reasoning that putting sand or water in bottles beneath upturned buckets is no test of dowsing. It is purely a test of whether or not a dowser receives supernatural help. As one who doesn't believe in the supernatural I am not at all surprised that he has failed all applicants.

If the same test were used against someone who claimed to be able to tell the difference between tea and coffee, but the test involved tea or coffee in sealed bottles beneath upturned buckets, then Randi would conclude that it is not possible to discriminate between the two beverages. My protocol is still being developed but it is inherently better than his, it is in a field for starters and not on a stage.

www.dowserdon.info
 
DowserDon said:
I assume that you are as critical of Randi's latest protocol and can see the errors in his reasoning that putting sand or water in bottles beneath upturned buckets is no test of dowsing. It is purely a test of whether or not a dowser receives supernatural help. As one who doesn't believe in the supernatural I am not at all surprised that he has failed all applicants.
Click to expand...
The applicants are always asked to try unblinded, and they deem that they can dowse successfully under these conditions. Or do you think that they receive supernatural help when unblinded, but lose that help when blinded?
 
DowserDon said:
You will be attending on 25th March, so you will have the opportunity to see dowsing under field conditions. There are areas in the field where handheld dowsing rods swing.
Click to expand...
I don't doubt it. I merely doubt that they do so more often than would be expected by chance when the person holding them doesn't know whether or not there's anything under the ground that should cause them to swing.

I assume that you are as critical of Randi's latest protocol and can see the errors in his reasoning that putting sand or water in bottles beneath upturned buckets is no test of dowsing.
Click to expand...
It is a perfectly valid test protocol for the claim for dowsing that was being made, which was that dowsing rods react to the presence of water when it cannot be otherwise detected. It's not a valid test protocol for the claim for dowsing you are making purely because your claim is more sophisticated, having been formulated with the knowledge that tests like this simple one fail.

But you are still operating under the assumption that dowsing does work in some circumstances which need to be simulated accurately for a double blind test to detect it working. That's an assumption that hasn't yet been either proved or disproved; it's truth is what you're trying to establish. My money is still on it being wrong.

And I am not critical of your test protocol, I think it's fine for the specific claim that you are making. I just remarked on the difficulty you seem to be having finding an open unblinded test that consistently works, which I (with my different assumptions) obviously interpret differently to you.

If the same test were used against someone who claimed to be able to tell the difference between tea and coffee, but the test involved tea or coffee in sealed bottles beneath upturned buckets, then Randi would conclude that it is not possible to discriminate between the two beverages.
Click to expand...
But that is not equivalent to the claim for dowsing that was being tested. It is only equivalent to the very different claim for dowsing that you are making.
 
steenkh said:
Or do you think that they receive supernatural help when unblinded, but lose that help when blinded?
Click to expand...

If you'd read the background to this forum, you'd have seen that I do not believe in the supernatural at all. At all, OK?
 
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