When Samson conducted the piece of Technical Analysis, Bitcoin was $22k, now it's $28k. Yet another "success" for TA.
Remember, if TA really was as effective as its advocates suggest, they'd keep quiet about it and concentrate on raking in the cash.
Merged Bitcoin - Part 3
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When Samson conducted the piece of Technical Analysis, Bitcoin was $22k, now it's $28k. Yet another "success" for TA.
Remember, if TA really was as effective as its advocates suggest, they'd keep quiet about it and concentrate on raking in the cash.
The_Animus
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When Samson conducted the piece of Technical Analysis, Bitcoin was $22k, now it's $28k. Yet another "success" for TA.
Remember, if TA really was as effective as its advocates suggest, they'd keep quiet about it and concentrate on raking in the cash.
I haven't actually done the calculations but I wouldn't be surprised if his predictions were statistically significant in how often he gets it wrong. Whenever he makes a prediction I'm tempted to invest the opposite way.
Yes but declined 12.5%When Samson conducted the piece of Technical Analysis, Bitcoin was $22k, now it's $28k. Yet another "success" for TA.
Remember, if TA really was as effective as its advocates suggest, they'd keep quiet about it and concentrate on raking in the cash.
Declined 12.5% which I consider a decline worth trading (22k to 19.5k).
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The true purpose of technical analysis is to predict a market with no knowledge of the underlying fundamentals, and there was a simple algorithm in that case. Bitcoin is a good technical market, partly because the pundits range from zero to half infinity in their longer term predictions. Not many markets are in that category.
In that same 3 day period S n P500 declined 4.5%, which was also party to my prediction. By all means dismiss these moves as noise in the market, but the real opportunities to profit from these moves say otherwise. In both the crypto and stock markets the move was immediate from the time stamp of my prediction on thread. But this debate was launched with noting it would fall on deaf ears.
I follow markets chiefly as a mental exercise, and continue with a day job.
I follow markets chiefly as a mental exercise, and continue with a day job.
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It did, but you said:
A brief 12.5% dip isn't a massive decline, especially in the case of something as volatile as Bitcoin.
If your TA is that effective, go off and make your hundreds of millions of dollars, don't waste time posting here and certainly don't give away even the merest hint of how your spectacular wealth was obtained.
You claimed a massive decline, what happened was a slight dip and immediate recovery.
If TA really is as effective as you claim it is, you must be a multi-billionaire by now. Why are you wasting time here instead of making even more money and/or enjoying the fruits of your labours ?
With derivative instruments you know that 4 to 12 percent moves are non trivial and as I always contend, the ratio out of the money to in the money in a trade will determine whether a strategy is truly profitable.
Yes, but you didn't make the claim w.r.t. derivatives you said:
If TA worked and you actually put your money where your mouth is, you should be at least a billionaire by now.
Massive is just a word. Replace with substantial then.
Incidentally does posting here place a natural limit on wealth?
ChrisBFRPKY
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I'd be happy to see some $1K swings again. Anything is better than going sideways though.
Do you think the 2.5k swing I particularised with specificity could have been helpful to you if on thread?
In which case we're back to your usual schtick of saying that at some point in the future the price/value of x will be higher/lower than it is now which, for a volatile thing such as Bitcoin, isn't that helpful.
It isn't. If you're a billionaire as a result of your TA then congratulations, you've managed to do what financial institutions the world over have tried, and failed, to do.
It is of no consequence how I might trade, but maybe you could turing test that last prediction.
True, but typically if someone really, truly believes in the effectiveness of what they're promoting, they'll put their money where their mouth is.
Indeed if it's as effective as you claim, you'd be mad not to become immensely wealthy by employing TA.
How would one do that ?
Suddenly
No Punting
Right. Show an ability to effectively employ TA and you will be in a very well-heeled capital firm making big coin subject to a comprehensive and brutal non-disclosure agreement to protect what edges are being created. They aren't going to be on the internet making calls.
From my poker days there was a guy that if you connected the dots that was almost certainly what was going on, but he'd never ever say it or even hint of it. He had been hired away from an elite university mathematic post graduate faculty position to do something; and had all the money. Even in a our group of mostly MIT nerds obsessed with analyzing poker nobody would even question his being The Guy.
I figure if TA is ever significantly useful there might be like five guys doing it successfully and keeping their mouths shut.
If that guy had any sense he'd also work for himself.
I worked in The City for a number of years and encountered any number of smart Quants but even they hadn't managed to crack that particular problem - not that hadn't tried very hard indeed.
Indeed, IMO it's the only way TA could work. If it worked and enough companies were using it would either not work because the market was no longer behaving in a "natural" way and/or it would end up locked in a feedback loop.
Suddenly
No Punting
He might have an equity position. Who knows. It's generally best to not gamble with your own money though. Having backing both reduces personal risk and having a larger bankroll means larger bets and in some cases more money than you get on your own. What exploits he finds are probably going to not last so even more important to get the money down quick.
He might have been getting paid to try for all I know. Or in the CIA. If I had to pick a guy to try it would have been this guy. It's hard to explain discussing poker analysis with him without getting into religious terms. There were a lot of traders in that group and it's not hard to imagine how someone would want to back this guy.
It's wild how many people don't grasp that concept. Also unfortunate because understanding that would rid us of a lot of scammers.
ChrisBFRPKY
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Large swings are almost impossible to catch. I do much better riding the smaller swings multiple times. It's almost impossible to profit when its going sideways which is why it's good to see some action starting. Still premature for trading at this time IMO though.
There is no magic in trading Bitcoin and no matter your system you cannot predict the price. The price rises and falls with the latest news headline of the day making it impossible to predict.