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Merged Bitcoin - Part 3

psionl0 said:
TBF Tippit has been posting about his friend since before bitcoin was priced in the thousands of dollars.
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If true, that slims the odds to some degree. I do remember him mentioning a friend who hedged the "inevitable" hyper inflation massacre with crypto instead of precious metals, but that was well after BTC had hit 4 figures.
 
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trustbutverify said:
You claimed you were friends with a crypto billionaire. I claimed that, while possible, that relationship was massively improbable. I stand by that claim.
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So, you’re assuming that I’m a liar, with absolutely no evidence. Charming! I agree that it’s improbable, but improbable things happen all the time. I don’t need any reminding of how fortunate he is, given that a) I threw away his email gift to me worth well over a quarter million dollars now and b) I seriously considered investing as little as $10,000 in bitcoin back when it was hovering around $10-11, and did not. That was roughly a fifty-million dollar mistake on my part. It stings even more that I’m the one who taught him about the Fed and monetary policy, and the value of gold and silver, yet his conclusion was to invest almost everything he had into bitcoin. He was right, and I was wrong. The Fed engages in active suppression of gold and silver, and instead of buying bitcoin I decided to fight them.

I am not going to dox him, at any rate.


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There was a user mhaze on this forum who I am sure was well invested in bitcoin long before quadruple digit prices. He did the reasonable thing and abandoned us to spend his great fortune. Do a search for him.

Why engage with hopeless cynics, pseudo-skeptics, and trolls when you can sun yourself on your private island beach sipping a cool drink?


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Tippit said:
There was a user mhaze on this forum who I am sure was well invested in bitcoin long before quadruple digit prices. He did the reasonable thing and abandoned us to spend his great fortune. Do a search for him.
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Your point being?

Why engage with hopeless cynics, pseudo-skeptics, and trolls when you can sun yourself on your private island beach sipping a cool drink?
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Because the latter is boring?
 
Pixel42 said:
I remember mhaze, he was a climate change denier. Eventually got himself banned IIRC.
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Another feather in his cap. I doubt he was a climate change denier, he was probably an anthropogenic climate change denier. Super smart dude.


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Pixel42 said:
I remember mhaze, he was a climate change denier. Eventually got himself banned IIRC.
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I also remember mhaze. Committed suicide by mod.

According to his posts, he was eating pizzas paid for with bitcoin. I shudder to think how expensive those pizzas were at today's prices.
 
Tippit said:
So, you’re assuming that I’m a liar, with absolutely no evidence. Charming! I agree that it’s improbable, but improbable things happen all the time. I don’t need any reminding of how fortunate he is, given that a) I threw away his email gift to me worth well over a quarter million dollars now and b) I seriously considered investing as little as $10,000 in bitcoin back when it was hovering around $10-11, and did not. That was roughly a fifty-million dollar mistake on my part. It stings even more that I’m the one who taught him about the Fed and monetary policy, and the value of gold and silver, yet his conclusion was to invest almost everything he had into bitcoin. He was right, and I was wrong. The Fed engages in active suppression of gold and silver, and instead of buying bitcoin I decided to fight them.

I am not going to dox him, at any rate.
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Not quite, IMV. Lucky, more like, in this case.

Like someone buying this lottery number instead of that, or instead of not buying a ticket at all, and then hitting the jackpot. One way of describing that choice is to call it the right choice -- which, of course, is not incorrect. On the other hand, "lucky" probably is a better descriptor.

Good for your friend. If he's wise, then he will now devote his energies to finding some way of converting his primarily paper profits into assets that might be more liquid, or into cash.

(Of course, not following this course of course of action, and holding on instead, might yet make him a trillionaire one day, who knows. So there's no foolproof "right" or wrong here, really, only what's most prudent. And IMV prudence would dictate cashing out, largely if not entirely. ............On the other hand, my "prudence" hasn't made me a billionaire, of the paper kind or any other kind, while your friend's risk taking has, so there's that too.)



My views on BTC as an investment vehicle? If your portfolio size is large enough, then put aside a small portion, that you can afford to write off, on BTC, as a potential multibagger-on-steroids gamble. I would do that, if my NW were around ten times what it is now. I still might do that, even given what my NW is now, only I myself don't really understand cryptos as an asset class nearly well enough to back my own judgment on them -- so, obviously, pinch of salt, as far as my own views on whether or how much to put on BTC.
 
Tippit said:
So, you’re assuming that I’m a liar, with absolutely no evidence. Charming!
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I have no idea if you're lying or telling the truth. What I'm assuming is that there's a very low (but non zero) possibility you're telling the truth and a very high probability you're lying.

The fact that some people win multiple rollover, solo mega-lotto payouts with one ticket doesn't change the fact that the chances of being the only winner was microscopically small, while the chances of losing were astronomically large.
 
Dr.Sid said:
Jesus who cares if the guy has real or imaginary friends. It's totally off topic.
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Indeed.

But in any case, given the posts here about whether this friend might be real, I was idly checking out online these "whales", and in one article that I glossed through, they raised an important point -- that, while obvious enough, isn't something that had occurred to me.

Given these are, well, currency, no matter how dodgy, and not securities, the usual insider trading and information sharing et cetera regulations probably don't apply, or at least, apply quite as rigorously. So that whales acting in concert might, depending, turn out to be a thing, that is, a legal thing.

IMV that makes the whole business even more murky. (Well, "murky" only means complex, and not clearly visible: so that if one fancies oneself as having the acuity to pierce that veil of murky, then that is more opportunity than stay-away-sign.)
 
Chanakya said:
Not quite, IMV. Lucky, more like, in this case.
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It’s definitely not fair to just call him lucky. He was extraordinarily prescient, a true believer in bitcoin. The tragedy for me, is that I could have invested much more than the ~$350,000 that made up his initial investment, or as little as the $10,000 that I somewhat seriously considered at the time. I had none of the conviction he did. What’s also sad is that I invested more in him prior to that, I funded his startup p2p networking venture that he ultimately used to buy the bitcoin. He refused to give me any equity so I just loaned him the money, and he paid it back with interest.

He worked for Ripple labs, and has a sizeable fortune in Ripple stock alone, worth hundreds of millions, and he has met Roger Ver, and Vitalik Buterin of Ethereum fame.

Like someone buying this lottery number instead of that, or instead of not buying a ticket at all, and then hitting the jackpot. One way of describing that choice is to call it the right choice -- which, of course, is not incorrect. On the other hand, "lucky" probably is a better descriptor.
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What he did wasn’t quite like buying a winning lottery ticket, and it’s an insult to just say he was lucky. His reasoning was that this represented the “internet of money”, and even if he is ultimately wrong I am sure it won’t affect his lifestyle much at this point, because he was mostly right. I’m sure you would attribute all of your good investments to pure skill, but the reality is that sometimes it’s not altogether clear why some people are successful and others are not.

My own perspective on my colossal missed opportunity, is that I was far too stubborn, closed-minded, and even ungrateful (having thrown away an email with 5 bitcoin). Don’t be ungrateful, and if you have a vague suspicion that you’ve spotted a game changing investment, just throw something at it that you can afford to lose, at the very least. Bitcoin is my biggest financial regret for a number of reasons, hopefully I can learn some lessons from it. I have no plans to sell the .0919 that i own.

My views on BTC as an investment vehicle? If your portfolio size is large enough, then put aside a small portion, that you can afford to write off, on BTC, as a potential multibagger-on-steroids gamble. I would do that, if my NW were around ten times what it is now. I still might do that, even given what my NW is now, only I myself don't really understand cryptos as an asset class nearly well enough to back my own judgment on them -- so, obviously, pinch of salt, as far as my own views on whether or how much to put on BTC.
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I think there is a good probability of a grid down event, either due to war, social unrest, or for some other reason, so I am mostly invested in farmland and ammunition among other things.


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