Merged Bitcoin - Part 3

ChrisBFRPKY said:
It's not that kind of business. :thumbsup: Full points reply though!

I receive an invoice in THB, convert to the current USD/THB exchange rate and transfer the funds via crypto. It's very easy and I've tweaked the process along the way. In most cases now the transfers are completely free and go from crypto to THB and on to the receiving bank momentarily. They like to claim the transfers are "Instant" but in reality it takes a few minutes likely due to the people factor at the local bank. Prior to using crypto for transfers it cost me at minimum $50 and a trip to the bank to complete a wire and then the days of waiting. Now, it's fast and free.

Have there been transfers that changed in value? Yes, a couple of times due to a "slight delay" on the other end. (This has been corrected by one of the tweaks I made to the system.) Because of the "slight delay" on the other end, the price of Bitcoin rose before the conversion to THB. While this was in our favor it was still unacceptable as these funds were for expenses, not speculation. It could just as easily gone the other way which is why I now control both ends of the transaction. This removed the "slight delay" factor and the interest in speculation. People are only Human.
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I’ve never paid that much or had to go to the bank, so I’d have less push to look for alternatives. And most of my Asia transactions are with Japanese or Hong Kong entities. Less lag, I think.

It does strike me that you are inserting a volatile element to a very stable exchange rate, otherwise. You’ve obviously found ways to deal with that, but has that been worth the effort? What is your time worth and how long did it take you to implement solutions that reduced volatility without increasing risk? Finally, do your vendors require immediate payment terms? I’ve never encountered that other than at roadside repair shops.

I’m glad you took the final line in the spirit it was offered.
 
Dr. Keith said:
Remove the words “uniquely” and “only” and I think you will get closer to understanding my arguments.

In fact, I’ve given examples of other speculative investments that rely on the bigger fool theory.
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Other than falsely comparing bitcoin to tulips, I haven't seen any other examples. So "uniquely" stands.

Of course, you ignore that every instrument of speculation relies on rising prices for their value. For example, the average person who buys an ounce of gold bullion isn't going to melt it and make something with it. They won't even put it on display. It gets locked up (securely). The only reason for buying gold bullion is the hope that a "bigger fool" will pay a higher price for it in the future.

Dr. Keith said:
And the fact that i acknowledge this speculative activity is a clear indication that there are non-criminal transaction.
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:rolleyes:

Dr. Keith said:
Like most thing libertarian it misses the history of how we ended up with the system we have. Libertarians decry the coddling state of the automobile industry, with the seat belts and airbags that serve no real purpose, and insist they should be allowed on the highway with their souped up lawn mower. Bitcoin is not so different.
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False analogy.

Bitcoin arose from the GFC of 2008 which almost plunged the world into the worst depression ever. All because of reckless mortgage lending and trading in worthless MBS's. Add to that the increasing desire of governments to be able to examine your bank transactions and confiscate deposits (must send the "right" message about drugs) and you can see why the idea of a decentralized "currency" starts to look attractive.

This has nothing to do with making automobiles safer.
 
psionl0 said:
Other than falsely comparing bitcoin to tulips, I haven't seen any other examples. So "uniquely" stands.
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One other example takes uniquely off the table.

Of course, you ignore that every instrument of speculation relies on rising prices for their value. For example, the average person who buys an ounce of gold bullion isn't going to melt it and make something with it. They won't even put it on display. It gets locked up (securely). The only reason for buying gold bullion is the hope that a "bigger fool" will pay a higher price for it in the future.
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Close. I feel like you are almost there. The gold buyer is speculating that the value of gold will go up over time. But that value is not based purely on speculation, it is also based on the effort to acquire gold and the value of gold as a useful product. Bitcoin copied the effort side of that and left others to come up with the useful product side. And the main use is avoiding scrutiny of shady transactions. You know, like criminals.

Gold has a use, even if you don’t use it. If aluminum could be easily altered to have the electrical and ornamental properties of gold, the value of gold would drop. Just like the value of aluminum dropped when it became so sharp to make. Gold is more valuable than aluminum today because it is useful. Aluminum was more valuable than gold because it was rare. Bitcoin is neither that rare nor that useful.

Now, Chris has me thinking that the bank transfer value may be higher than I previously assumed, but still, the THB is far less volatile. I’d like to know more about what he’s doing, but it sounds like a pretty fringe case where the local banking system is so bad that another option was needed. I live and work in wealthy countries, so maybe I’m jaded. I bet most Bitcoin is owned by people like me, though.




False analogy.

Bitcoin arose from the GFC of 2008 which almost plunged the world into the worst depression ever. All because of reckless mortgage lending and trading in worthless MBS's. Add to that the increasing desire of governments to be able to examine your bank transactions and confiscate deposits (must send the "right" message about drugs) and you can see why the idea of a decentralized "currency" starts to look attractive.

This has nothing to do with making automobiles safer.
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Sorry that wasn’t helpful to you.
 
Dr. Keith said:
Close. I feel like you are almost there. The gold buyer is speculating that the value of gold will go up over time. But that value is not based purely on speculation, it is also based on the effort to acquire gold and the value of gold as a useful product. Bitcoin copied the effort side of that and left others to come up with the useful product side. And the main use is avoiding scrutiny of shady transactions. You know, like criminals.

Gold has a use, even if you don’t use it. If aluminum could be easily altered to have the electrical and ornamental properties of gold, the value of gold would drop. Just like the value of aluminum dropped when it became so sharp to make. Gold is more valuable than aluminum today because it is useful. Aluminum was more valuable than gold because it was rare. Bitcoin is neither that rare nor that useful.
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Over 90% of all the gold mined each year goes into either the industrial market or the jewelry market. If you can estimate changes in demand for jewelry, you can make pretty good estimates of what will happen to the price of gold over the medium term.

This differs markedly from bitcoin for which the current price depends almost exclusively on what other speculators are doing.
 
Dr. Keith said:
One other example takes uniquely off the table.
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Not when the example is false.

Dr. Keith said:
Close. I feel like you are almost there. The gold buyer is speculating that the value of gold will go up over time. But that value is not based purely on speculation, it is also based on the effort to acquire gold and the value of gold as a useful product.
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Not so. The price of gold is almost purely speculative regardless of the fact that a tiny percentage of the gold in the world has been made into jewellery or put to some industrial uses. That makes gold as much an example of the bigger fool theory as any other instrument of speculation.
 
psionl0 said:
Not when the example is false.


Not so. The price of gold is almost purely speculative regardless of the fact that a tiny percentage of the gold in the world has been made into jewellery or put to some industrial uses. That makes gold as much an example of the bigger fool theory as any other instrument of speculation.
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Not quite.
If you watched the movie don't look up, you could imagine taking gold or bitcoin for 22,000 years across space to curry favor with the locals.
(spoiler, neither would work)
 
psionl0 said:
Not so. The price of gold is almost purely speculative
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No it's not the price of gold is a primarily a function of the Jewry market. It doesn't resemble bitcoin at all, because there is real demand for gold to actually make things.

v
psionl0 said:
Not when the example is false.

tiny percentage of the gold in the world has been made into jewellery
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Since when is 90% "a tiny percentage"?
 
psionl0 said:
Even if your figure of 90% of the gold that is currently being mined is used for jewellery is accurate, that doesn't account for the vast amounts of existing gold bullion that is buried and used for nothing at all.
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Things that are useful can be stored.
 
Dr. Keith said:
I’ve never paid that much or had to go to the bank, so I’d have less push to look for alternatives. And most of my Asia transactions are with Japanese or Hong Kong entities. Less lag, I think.

It does strike me that you are inserting a volatile element to a very stable exchange rate, otherwise. You’ve obviously found ways to deal with that, but has that been worth the effort? What is your time worth and how long did it take you to implement solutions that reduced volatility without increasing risk? Finally, do your vendors require immediate payment terms? I’ve never encountered that other than at roadside repair shops.

I’m glad you took the final line in the spirit it was offered.
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I've found there is no way to move money for free unless you can achieve the move using crypto and a bit of creativity. Everyone wants their fee or percentage. I don't like wasting money on fees to transfer funds. It adds up over time.

If you're moving funds overseas, you're paying someone a fee. There are many nice names for it: "Courtesy fee", "Exchange fee", "Wire fee", "International Processing fee", etc. The names are only limited to what the banking sector creates to make their particular "fee" sound nicer.

There may be a difference between your transactions and mine. Not to put too fine a point on it, the transactions I do are not payments to vendors but rather transfers of funds for monthly business expenses, payroll, utilities etc. I absorb any "fees" on both sides of the transaction. So it's not simply a matter of using a bank card and letting the receiver pay the percentage of the transaction. The receiver paying the percentage in this case would still be "me".

Volatility using crypto is not an issue unless you sit on it. But, you know there was and is also volatility doing bank wires as well. While the exchange rate between currencies does not swing as rapidly as crypto, it does swing. A few days of waiting for a wire to post can work against you: https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/USD-THB-exchange-rate-history.html
I'm not saying crypto can't be volatile, it certainly can, particularly if you sit on it for a day or two. For transfer of funds though, you can't beat it.

OK, I'll step back and let you guys continue the debate of whether Bitcoin is any good or not. :thumbsup:
 
ChrisBFRPKY said:
I've found there is no way to move money for free unless you can achieve the move using crypto and a bit of creativity. Everyone wants their fee or percentage. I don't like wasting money on fees to transfer funds. It adds up over time.

If you're moving funds overseas, you're paying someone a fee. There are many nice names for it: "Courtesy fee", "Exchange fee", "Wire fee", "International Processing fee", etc. The names are only limited to what the banking sector creates to make their particular "fee" sound nicer.

There may be a difference between your transactions and mine. Not to put too fine a point on it, the transactions I do are not payments to vendors but rather transfers of funds for monthly business expenses, payroll, utilities etc. I absorb any "fees" on both sides of the transaction. So it's not simply a matter of using a bank card and letting the receiver pay the percentage of the transaction. The receiver paying the percentage in this case would still be "me".

Volatility using crypto is not an issue unless you sit on it. But, you know there was and is also volatility doing bank wires as well. While the exchange rate between currencies does not swing as rapidly as crypto, it does swing. A few days of waiting for a wire to post can work against you: https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/USD-THB-exchange-rate-history.html
I'm not saying crypto can't be volatile, it certainly can, particularly if you sit on it for a day or two. For transfer of funds though, you can't beat it.

OK, I'll step back and let you guys continue the debate of whether Bitcoin is any good or not. :thumbsup:
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Thanks for the added context.

Are the fees for transferring funds in and out of crypto negligible?

Also, with the THB being relatively stable against the dollar, what is the risk of making a single monthly transfer and then running all fees against that balance, adjust next month if you need more or less and leave a cushion?

I know Joe mentioned that Thai banks were hard to deal with, but I got the sense that a lot of his problems related to the fact that he was never a good bank customer. Lots of effort, low balances. You sound like you could be the opposite.

For me, I doubt $600/yr in fees would have me looking for a creative solution. But, I get that we view this differently.

Thanks again for an engaging answer.
 
Bitcoin in the begining: Hey, this new thing is going to revolutionize commercial instrument and will be as stable as a rock.
Bitcoin now: Hey, what about all the commercial instruments they do the same thing. Why are you complaining?
 
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