Bitcoin - Part 2

Status
Not open for further replies.
jrhowell said:
Bitcoin has two unique attributes: its name and the fact that some people have invested a lot of money in it.

Those who have bought into bitcoin don't want to sell at a lower price -- giving it some value, but that is a weak incentive for anyone new to buy into it.

And as you have stated, each time in the past that bitcoin hit a peak and dropped, it eventually came back to hit a higher peak. That will continue to be true...until it isn't. There were external factors behind each rise and fall in price. Unless there is a specific reason for the price to rise to a new peak, it won't.
Click to expand...


You are talking about pre-burst. It is not happening with post-burst where the price tries to recover but keeps sinking.
 
PartSkeptic said:
You are talking about pre-burst. It is not happening with post-burst where the price tries to recover but keeps sinking.
Click to expand...
How will you be able to tell when "post-burst" has occurred - other than by repeating all the "this time it is different" arguments that have been made over the last 7 years?
 
Metcalfe’s Law predicts the value of Bitcoin

How network theory predicts the value of Bitcoin
Metcalfe’s Law, which measures the value of a network, can calculate a cryptocurrency’s value—and predict when to get out.

The value of a network is famously accredited to Bob Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet and founder of the computer networking company 3Com. Metcalfe’s Law states that a network’s value is proportional to the square of the number of its users.

It’s straightforward to calculate a value for Bitcoin based on the number of active users. Wheatley and co fit the data to a generalized Metcalfe’s Law that allows them to tweak the parameters, arriving at an exponent of 1.69... With these parameters, the generalized Metcalfe’s Law more accurately reflects the way Bitcoin’s value has increased with the number of users.

It also reveals when Bitcoin has been overvalued. Wheatley and co point to four occasions when Bitcoin has become overvalued and then crashed; in other words, when the bubble has burst... So in the Bitcoin crashes listed above, the triggering events are insignificant. According to Sornette, the market was already in a critical phase, and if these events hadn’t occurred, some other event would have triggered a crash instead...

According to the generalized Metcalfe’s Law, Bitcoin is significantly overvalued, even after the crash at the end of 2017. “Our Metcalfe-based analysis indicates current support levels for the bitcoin market in the range of 22–44 billion USD, at least four times less than the current level,” they say.
Click to expand...
So according to their analysis we can expect the price to continue dropping to around $2000.

But bitcoiners disagree. Apparently Bitcoin has shrugged off its death cross and is back on track to reach the moon! You can see the huge turnaround in this graph,
 

Attachments

  • deathcross over.jpg
    deathcross over.jpg
    47.7 KB · Views: 11
We should be each playing the game of "buy the dips" and "sell the peaks".

We seem to be at a little peak at the moment, so I would be selling 20% (assume I own 100 bitcoin).

If I sold it all today I would get 100 x $7334 = $733,400.

I had $0 and 100 bitcoin as my start.
Now I have $146,680 and 80 bitcoin.

I will wait for it to drop to $6,200 and then buy.
 
Last edited:
From a technical view if bitcoin gets over 7500 in the next day or so we will see a big rally.
It looks more likely for a descent to the long trend around 2000, where even I would look for a sharp rally to sucker in the next generation.
 
Last edited:
Samson said:
From a technical view if bitcoin gets over 7500 in the next day or so we will see a big rally.
It looks more likely for a descent to the long trend around 2000, where even I would look for a sharp rally to sucker in the next generation.
Click to expand...


So you disagree with your fellow nay-sayer:
PartSkeptic said:
To get the price to rise dramatically they need fresh investors. That will not happen.
Click to expand...
 
psionl0 said:
Yes really. Samson says there will be a next generation to "sucker" in and you say there won't.
Click to expand...

I certainly believe there will be a logarithmic trendline rally around 2000, it could be 200% to 6000.

The great thing about message boards is they seem to be permanent records, heros and goats are equal players . :)
 
Here is the thing. (rather cute americanism)

The daily closes forge 6 month low territory.
What should we skeptical thinkers imagine?
It is obvious to the meanest intellect we can never cart a bitcoin to the pawn shop.
True, nor the brand coke and the toothless smiles Warren Buffet promotes....
 
psionl0 said:
Yes really. Samson says there will be a next generation to "sucker" in and you say there won't.
Click to expand...


Upon reflection, the price swings can be caused by people holding a lot of bitcoin who are manipulating the price.

Any rise that goes above 20,000 will probably be a new generation of suckers. And I say that will not happen.
 
psionl0 said:
Why? Do you think that everybody who spent thousands buying this "novelty" will suddenly get bored with cryptos and dump them?
Click to expand...

no, they will keep telling each other and the suckerswho buy in how innovative and unique they are and worth xxxxx real money (oh no, there is no real money , just digits)
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom