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This is what I was thinking of
https://www.poetsgraves.co.uk/Classic Poems/Pope/a_little_learning.htm
So pleased at first the towering Alps we try,
Mount o’er the vales, and seem to tread the sky ;
The eternal snows appear already past,
And the first clouds and mountains seem the last ;
But those attained, we tremble to survey
The growing labours of the lengthened way ;
The increasing prospect tires our wandering eyes,
Hill peep o’er hills, and Alps on Alps arise !
Heh
psion10 is winning...
https://www.poetsgraves.co.uk/Classic Poems/Pope/a_little_learning.htm
So pleased at first the towering Alps we try,
Mount o’er the vales, and seem to tread the sky ;
The eternal snows appear already past,
And the first clouds and mountains seem the last ;
But those attained, we tremble to survey
The growing labours of the lengthened way ;
The increasing prospect tires our wandering eyes,
Hill peep o’er hills, and Alps on Alps arise !
Heh
psion10 is winning...
Roger Ramjets
Philosopher
The denial is strong in this one...
Bitcoin has peaked twice at most. All the other 'peaks' were just blips on the way to the top. Now that the bubble has burst it will take a miracle to best it. A bubble isn't over until it returns to the norm. What is the norm for Bitcoin? Probably close to the cost of mining it. In Venezuela that is ~$500.
A few days ago I met a guy I knew from way back. He told me how he made a lot of money from Bitcoin he bought last April. I said you must be filthy rich now if you sold in December, so why are you still working in this electronics store? Turns he only sold a small amount and is HODLing the rest!PartSkeptic said:
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psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Obviously if you use a linear scale then it is going to imply that the bitcoin price was zero up until about 2014. It is the same trick that goldbugs use to imply that prices were zero up until about the start of WW2 then took off dramatically in the last decade or so.
Only somebody incredibly stupid would continue falling for this trick.
If you use the proper scale then you would find that in relative terms, the most recent peak is not even the most dramatic to have ever occurred.
PartSkeptic
Illuminator
I decided to look at the history of bitcoin to see where these peaks are that you are talking about. The only one I could find was the Mt. Gox peak.
Then I see Roger has beaten me to it. I will read his post but I am asking which peaks you are talking about that show similar behavior to this last big one?
PartSkeptic
Illuminator
By your reasoning, a pimple on someones arm is pretty much the same if not worse that Mt Everest. A log scale is a terrible distortion. When I looked at the history I went to a linear scale and looked at one year and moved the slider to get a true picture.
You are the one with a distorted viewpoint and using trickery.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
It didn't take long for somebody to illustrate my comment about falling for this trick.
You clearly don't have a clue about what "relative" means. It might not be a big deal if the cost of a loaf of bread went up by 10c today but in 1910 it sure as heck did.
The_Animus
Illuminator
- Joined
- Nov 24, 2006
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- 3,591
The doomsday predictors and psychics gives excuses after the fact too. I misinterpreted this Bible verse and doomsday is actually next year not this year. The psychic vision is hazy and I saw the letters Do and thought your dead relatives name was Don but I see more clearly now and it's actually Doug.
Neither has Bitcoin and yet they both will sooner or later. So no my statement wasn't wrong.
Don't misunderstand. I agree with some of what you and others have said such as that bitcoin is largely just speculation. My point is that people have been saying it's about to die for over a decade and they've been consistently wrong. Nonetheless I have little doubt that when it does die those same people will ignore their numerous false predictions and declare they were right. Just like a bad psychic.
PartSkeptic
Illuminator
Relative to you, I sure do.
Look at the chart with a linear scale when it peaks at about $1,000 (or whatever) and over a year. The chart shows the peak as about 100%. Do the same for the recent December peak. That is a proper comparison. The shape of the chart is the key.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Keep your biased charts to yourself. I prefer a proper log scale.
That chart clearly shows what would happen if you spent $1000 on BTC at any time since 2012. The longest period of sustained gains was from May 2015 to Dec 2017 but there are at least 2 periods where a quicker and larger gain could be made. There are smaller peaks which at the time attracted doomsday predictions just as vigorously as you are arguing today.
You are ignoring the difference. This time there has been massive coverage in the mainstream media. Youth are investing, I know of cases, they are all out of the money right now. I am keen to study this rationally, and while no one would bet both arms there will be no new peak, I might scare them by promising to run naked down Queen Street.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
You missed the point again. The question wasn't about why the current set of reasons for the end of bitcoin are better than the previous set. It was about how many price peaks there have been in bitcoin's history.
PartSkeptic
Illuminator
If you want a true point then do the following. Go to a bitcoin chart, and set it for a line graph. Then set the interval for 1 month. From Mar 2013 to present there is effectively 1 (one peak) that occurred in December 2017. There is one bump that occurred in Nov 2011 which is the Mt Gox blip. There are two sharp edges one on Aug 2017 and one on Feb 2018.
Having smoothed out the trends, you sure CANNOT avoid the fact that there is ONE AND ONLY ONE PEAK! That peak is the bubble bursting.
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psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
It doesn't surprise me that my explanation went completely over your head.
PartSkeptic
Illuminator
Your explanation and the flying pigs that keep it in the air.
They will have to land sometime.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Completely over your head.
Ron_Tomkins
Satan's Helper
- Joined
- Oct 29, 2007
- Messages
- 44,024
Ok, so lets try again: I'm a very dumb person when it comes to this topic. Work with me step by step, as if I was a complete moron (Because chances are, that's not entirely far from the truth in some way)
First of all: Do I need to invest actual money to mine bitcoins?
If so: Is it something where if I have, say, 20 dollars that I wanna "play" as if this was a lottery ticket, I can just try it with that amount of money and then see if that eventually grows into something bigger? Or is it a system that requires that I'm constantly feeding it money so it can produce money?
Because if so, then this is something I'm definitely not even gonna bother trying.
First of all: Do I need to invest actual money to mine bitcoins?
If so: Is it something where if I have, say, 20 dollars that I wanna "play" as if this was a lottery ticket, I can just try it with that amount of money and then see if that eventually grows into something bigger? Or is it a system that requires that I'm constantly feeding it money so it can produce money?
Because if so, then this is something I'm definitely not even gonna bother trying.
phiwum
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2010
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- 13,590
I'm not sure about Target, but the ransomware guys are demanding six bitcoins from Atlanta, I hear. So that's value.
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