Bitcoin - Part 2

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Not Gus but some real life guy.
Who? This is a legend, you won’t find verified accounts of this actually happening.



You are late into the crypto scheme. But this is what is keeping the 1400+ cyptos going. Hope springs eternal.
Cryptos are very much a developing market. I realize you think it’s all a big scam -and to be sure there are indeed scams in crypto- but whether or not you can see it, there is utility in cryptocurrency.



Take note that you are simply betting (speculating) that the price will rise.
I noted it explicitly myself in the post you quoted.
Why not? Why do people gamble at all? Because it’s fun and there’s a chance you can win something. I got lucky when I bought 10 BTC at $15/ea. If ETN ever reaches $20k I will be the Six Million Dollar Man!
Because so many others are doing the same?
Partly. Increased interest can mean increased opportunity.
Did you evaluate the functionality or the technology or the use in society?
Yes. That’s why I picked the ones I did.
I doubt it. Probably picked a name you like.
My mom picked grey horses to bet on. She outperformed my dad who analyzed the Racing Form for hours. I’m kind of a mix of both styles because I think branding is important if mass adoption is the goal. So I tried to focus on cryptos that are cheap right now, doing something different but also had cool names. Ripple, for instance. Electroneum for another.

And, as much utility as I might see in it and as much as I might like the name, I avoided Titcoin.
 
Stop loss is 8744

Like all traders I find stops are magnets, but at least you are making sense.
I see no need to stake out a profit target after the last pitchforking by the villagers. As I said I will post it.

Oh well. You win some, you lose some.
 
Yes, that is the first loss.
They are needed for CraigB's law to make sense.

The (theoretical) loss was only established because I nagged you to state the stop-loss figure, otherwise the bet would still be open and you could claim a win next week when the value falls.

How about you do something like this each time you make a prediction? People here have been complaining about the 'open ended' nature of some of your bets for quite some time.
 
The (theoretical) loss was only established because I nagged you to state the stop-loss figure, otherwise the bet would still be open and you could claim a win next week when the value falls.

How about you do something like this each time you make a prediction? People here have been complaining about the 'open ended' nature of some of your bets for quite some time.
Happy to do so.
Back in the TA thread days I recall calling the Euro way higher, but the triumphalism when a quick stop was triggered was a wonder to behold.
The euro went 10% higher in quick measure against greenback.
 
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Kind of like the triumphalism on this thread whenever bitcoin falls a bit?
I plead guilty.
I like seeing bitcoin fall in value because it offends all reason to see an intrinsically worthless entity deliver largesse, tax free to irrational people.

Then I remind myself of the other great thought experiment, the big bang, quite a lot from nothing. I debate with someone who declares it absurd and impossible, and all the descriptions of the certainty of the equations pass him by. And I can't explain the damn thing in a fit.
 
I plead guilty.
I like seeing bitcoin fall in value because it offends all reason to see an intrinsically worthless entity deliver largesse, tax free to irrational people.

Then I remind myself of the other great thought experiment, the big bang, quite a lot from nothing. I debate with someone who declares it absurd and impossible, and all the descriptions of the certainty of the equations pass him by. And I can't explain the damn thing in a fit.

OK but let's try to explain the intrinsic value of gold or diamonds. The explanation is quite simple: they only have value because people think they have value. Otherwise, they are just pretty rocks or shiny metals that we pulled out of the ground. Tanzanite is a beautiful stone and is indisputably rarer than diamond . . . why isn't that way more expensive than diamonds? Because people don't think it's worth more than a diamond! They simply can't beat, right now anyway, the decades of marketing diamonds have had.

We can make the same kind of argument for fiat money: It only has value because we all collectively agree that it does. What is the dollar backed by? "The full faith and credit of the US." However, if I go to the US government what will they give me in return for it? Absolutely nothing. The dollar only has value because we all have agreed that it does -mostly because it's a convenient way to represent value in the exchange goods and services with each other. There is no reason a cryptocurrency can't operate in exactly the same way.

When I own a stock, what do I really own? A line of code in some exchange's database somewhere that says I own a share of a company -very similar to cryptos. That share only has value if someone else agrees that it does. Sure, the value is perceived as the profitability of a company, but this doesn't stop people from overvaluing certain stocks and undervaluing others on a fundamental analysis. And all it takes is one bad move by that company to have the value come crashing down.

I don't think the "Bitcoin has no intrinsic value therefore it's a scam" argument holds much water. If that argument is true, then all currencies, stocks, precious metals and gemstones are also scams.

This also explains why it's so hard to predict market movements: I see all markets and exchanges as, fundamentally, arguments between traders about what something is worth at any given moment. Since the value of these assets is based entirely on what people think the value is, you really have to factor in human behavior as a key variable in order to successfully predict market movement. As we all know, that is impossible to do with any consistency.
 
We can make the same kind of argument for fiat money: It only has value because we all collectively agree that it does. What is the dollar backed by? "The full faith and credit of the US." However, if I go to the US government what will they give me in return for it? Absolutely nothing.
This is not quite true. You can pay your taxes with fiat currency. Fiat currency is essentially a debt instrument backed by another debt instrument (tax liabilities) and other government debt. (M1 money is also backed by bank liabilities but that is another question altogether).

Commodity money is a different beast altogether. It is backed by nothing but itself. It is worth what anybody is willing to give in exchange for it.

I don't think the "Bitcoin has no intrinsic value therefore it's a scam" argument holds much water.
That is because there is no such thing as "intrinsic" value. Like bitcoin, something is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. People have been willing to expend a lot to acquire gold for thousands of years so it is mistakenly believed that gold has "intrinsic" value.
 
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OK but let's try to explain the intrinsic value of gold or diamonds. The explanation is quite simple: they only have value because people think they have value. Otherwise, they are just pretty rocks or shiny metals that we pulled out of the ground. Tanzanite is a beautiful stone and is indisputably rarer than diamond . . . why isn't that way more expensive than diamonds? Because people don't think it's worth more than a diamond! They simply can't beat, right now anyway, the decades of marketing diamonds have had.

We can make the same kind of argument for fiat money: It only has value because we all collectively agree that it does. What is the dollar backed by? "The full faith and credit of the US." However, if I go to the US government what will they give me in return for it? Absolutely nothing. The dollar only has value because we all have agreed that it does -mostly because it's a convenient way to represent value in the exchange goods and services with each other. There is no reason a cryptocurrency can't operate in exactly the same way.

Except that in addition to the full faith and credit it is also legal tender which means you are obligated to accept it in the US as payment for all debts. You can choose to accept other things but you must accept the USD.

The point is that currency is also useful, it is valuable to have a common means of trade that I know everyone will accept. Bitcoin doesn't have that and it sucks as a currency. So sure it has value in that people will pay for it, but investing in buying items in World of Warcraft makes as much sense as bitcoin and has far more utility.
 
This is not quite true. You can pay your taxes with fiat currency. Fiat currency is essentially a debt instrument backed by another debt instrument (tax liabilities) and other government debt. (M1 money is also backed by bank liabilities but that is another question altogether).
Right. But ultimately, what are those liabilities? Just transactions on a ledger somewhere. There is nothing but recorded obligations; no tangible thing of value underlies US currency. What really backs the dollar is the US Government's ability to enforce it's use; we MUST pay our taxes with it and it's the only way to transact with the Federal Reserve.

Commodity money is a different beast altogether. It is backed by nothing but itself. It is worth what anybody is willing to give in exchange for it.


That is because there is no such thing as "intrinsic" value. Like bitcoin, something is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. People have been willing to expend a lot to acquire gold for thousands of years so it is mistakenly believed that gold has "intrinsic" value.
Absolutely. There is no reason that BTC, et. al., while it cannot replace fiat money entirely, can't become a widely accepted medium of exchange, much like gold.

Crypto may never become widely accepted. There may be too many issues with it for people to trust it. But given all the advantages of crypto, especially with some of the practical uses of the blockchain/token system being dreamed up, I do think there is a place for it in the monetary system.
 
Except that in addition to the full faith and credit it is also legal tender which means you are obligated to accept it in the US as payment for all debts. You can choose to accept other things but you must accept the USD.
Right. The dollar is backed, ultimately, by threat of force.

The point is that currency is also useful, it is valuable to have a common means of trade that I know everyone will accept.
Absolutely.
Bitcoin doesn't have that and it sucks as a currency.
For now, you are correct. But there is no reason this always has to be the case. Maybe it won't be bitcoin, but some alternative payment token that crosses borders and has wide acceptance will gain traction at some point in the future, IMHO. It needs to be readily convertible to fiat money but all that requires is the right technology. I converted my bitcoin to fiat but it was a difficult and expensive process. When the bubble bursts and the market settles, I think the crypto that emerges from that will have solved those problems.
So sure it has value in that people will pay for it, but investing in buying items in World of Warcraft makes as much sense as bitcoin and has far more utility.
Well, I would dispute that but I'm pretty sure it was a bit of hyperbole.
 
OK but let's try to explain the intrinsic value of gold or diamonds. The explanation is quite simple: they only have value because people think they have value. Otherwise, they are just pretty rocks or shiny metals that we pulled out of the ground. Tanzanite is a beautiful stone and is indisputably rarer than diamond . . . why isn't that way more expensive than diamonds? Because people don't think it's worth more than a diamond! They simply can't beat, right now anyway, the decades of marketing diamonds have had.

We can make the same kind of argument for fiat money: It only has value because we all collectively agree that it does. What is the dollar backed by? "The full faith and credit of the US." However, if I go to the US government what will they give me in return for it? Absolutely nothing. The dollar only has value because we all have agreed that it does -mostly because it's a convenient way to represent value in the exchange goods and services with each other. There is no reason a cryptocurrency can't operate in exactly the same way.

When I own a stock, what do I really own? A line of code in some exchange's database somewhere that says I own a share of a company -very similar to cryptos. That share only has value if someone else agrees that it does. Sure, the value is perceived as the profitability of a company, but this doesn't stop people from overvaluing certain stocks and undervaluing others on a fundamental analysis. And all it takes is one bad move by that company to have the value come crashing down.

I don't think the "Bitcoin has no intrinsic value therefore it's a scam" argument holds much water. If that argument is true, then all currencies, stocks, precious metals and gemstones are also scams.

This also explains why it's so hard to predict market movements: I see all markets and exchanges as, fundamentally, arguments between traders about what something is worth at any given moment. Since the value of these assets is based entirely on what people think the value is, you really have to factor in human behavior as a key variable in order to successfully predict market movement. As we all know, that is impossible to do with any consistency.


You are so wrong it is painful. :jaw-dropp

What value does food have? Do you think the value is artificial and set according to some vague "feeling" that people have? If you do not have it you will starve.

What value does salt have? If you do not have it you cannot function. Roman soldiers were paid in salt (salarium hence salary).

And the same with water. If the streams and dams are guarded, you will "pay" somehow (such as doing work or exchanging food or salt).

Gold has value because is was a metal that was easily worked, was rare and did not corrode. Rulers and kings used them for ornaments because they lasted. Their gold rings were used to seal documents. Today they are used in high tech especially for non-corrosive electrical contacts.

A diamond was recognized as being rare and extremely hard which was useful. Yes they made jewelry. The value was that they told others that the owner was an important person. It was a physical symbol of wealth and power. I recognize the hype has increased it's value by simple desirability.

What does the dollar do for you? You pay taxes in dollars. Your labor and your capital gains and your transaction are taxed. It is a direct link to the work and capital infrastructure and GDP of the USA. No work no pay.

Stock. If you own a share, you own a piece of a company. The code is only a record of that underlying ownership. You get paid dividends (a portion of the profit). If the company dissolves you get paid out your portion of the asset value of the company.

Stocks can be overvalued, and sometimes so badly a bubble forms. Eventually they come back to the true valuation. Fiat money can be printed excessively and become valueless. These aberrations do not change the fundamentals.

The fundamental of bitcoin and other cryptos is that they are a fad whose value is determined solely by speculation. When the bubble bursts they return to true "value". The true value is zero because they add nothing to the economy. They do not build cell-phones or bridges or hospitals. They do not cure illness. They do not provide a "true service" of any sort.
 
Right. The dollar is backed, ultimately, by threat of force.

Force of law and the entire US ecconomy.
Absolutely. For now, you are correct. But there is no reason this always has to be the case. Maybe it won't be bitcoin, but some alternative payment token that crosses borders and has wide acceptance will gain traction at some point in the future, IMHO.

To be a medium of exchange it needs to be easy and cheap to transfer it is failing currently at that fundamental part of its utility outside all the watching the price fluctuate 10% in a few minutes in real time.
It needs to be readily convertible to fiat money but all that requires is the right technology. I converted my bitcoin to fiat but it was a difficult and expensive process.

Which is the point. And as the fundamental technology is locked why would that ever change?

When the bubble bursts and the market settles, I think the crypto that emerges from that will have solved those problems.

Maybe, of course fundamentally to do those things it needs to be accepted by financial institutions to make that happen and the whole point is going outside those institutions.
Well, I would dispute that but I'm pretty sure it was a bit of hyperbole.

Why? In game resources and gold mining are a real economy and that isn't going to change. The big thing is that the owners of the system being used don't want it to be an economy.
 
You are so wrong it is painful. :jaw-dropp
Really? Let's see . . .

What value does food have? Do you think the value is artificial and set according to some vague "feeling" that people have? If you do not have it you will starve.
Yes, food does have a basic value to humans in that we need it. However, I'm not sure how this is relevant at all to any point I made. You are literally comparing apples to dollars.
What value does salt have? If you do not have it you cannot function. Roman soldiers were paid in salt (salarium hence salary).
Oh lord. There is no evidence that Roman soldiers were actually paid in salt.

And the same with water. If the streams and dams are guarded, you will "pay" somehow (such as doing work or exchanging food or salt).
Or, I could just do what I do now and pay in currency. I pay for water because I need it and it's much easier to pay someone to do the job of gathering the water for me and piping it to my house.

I really don't see how these examples address any of my arguments*

"Value" can mean a lot of different things depending on the context. Food and water are valuable for one reason; currency, stock, metals and gems are valuable for various other unrelated reasons. Not much good in comparing them.

Gold has value because is was a metal that was easily worked, was rare and did not corrode. Rulers and kings used them for ornaments because they lasted.
Nah. Mostly they used them because they were shiny and made out of a relatively rare metal.
Their gold rings were used to seal documents.
A wooden stamp would have fulfilled the same role. They used gold rings because it was much cooler.
Today they are used in high tech especially for non-corrosive electrical contacts.
There are plenty of minerals used in high-tech; few of them have the value of gold. Like I said, gold is valuable because it is pretty and we value pretty things. IOW, the price of gold is much higher than it's industrial uses justify. Just compare it to platinum which is significantly more scarce but mostly used for industrial purposes.

A diamond was recognized as being rare and extremely hard which was useful. Yes they made jewelry. The value was that they told others that the owner was an important person. It was a physical symbol of wealth and power. I recognize the hype has increased it's value by simple desirability.
Right. Diamonds are valuable because they are seen as valuable. Nothing more. Diamonds are actually very common compared to other gemstones. Industrial diamonds are cheap and plentiful. Again, the price is much higher than what industrial use would justify. In fact, we could stop mining diamonds altogether and simply create industrial diamond in a lab these days.

Why is a 2.0ct synthetic diamond engagement ring about $2500 while a Tiffany 2.0ct diamond engagement ring is about $30k? The material is exactly the same; in fact, the synthetics are often superior in color and clarity. The average person (and even experts) would be hard pressed to tell them apart on visual inspection. The answer is that people value the Tiffany "real thing" more than they do the "fake" diamond, even though there is no difference between the two.

What does the dollar do for you? You pay taxes in dollars. Your labor and your capital gains and your transaction are taxed. It is a direct link to the work and capital infrastructure and GDP of the USA. No work no pay.
Yes. It's value derives from the fact that the value is artificially enforced by the government. Otherwise, it's just a piece of paper or bit of worthless metal.

Stock. If you own a share, you own a piece of a company. The code is only a record of that underlying ownership. You get paid dividends (a portion of the profit). If the company dissolves you get paid out your portion of the asset value of the company.
Yes, a stock is backed by the value of the underlying company. But the actual price of the stock reflects nothing other than the perceived value of the company and it's future profit potential. This price is set by traders "arguing with each other" in an exchange based on the demands of the brokers and their clients. They are often wrong. Stock price does not accurately reflect the true price of the company, we only think it does.
When a company becomes insolvent, there may be nothing left to distribute to shareholders after debts are discharged. That stock could actually be completely worthless.

Stocks can be overvalued, and sometimes so badly a bubble forms. Eventually they come back to the true valuation. Fiat money can be printed excessively and become valueless. These aberrations do not change the fundamentals.
Right. The fundamentals are that the value of a stock or currency does not reflect any intrinsic value but instead it's perceived value to people.

The fundamental of bitcoin and other cryptos is that they are a fad whose value is determined solely by speculation. When the bubble bursts they return to true "value". The true value is zero because they add nothing to the economy. They do not build cell-phones or bridges or hospitals. They do not cure illness. They do not provide a "true service" of any sort.
Of course they provide a service, just not to you -or at least, you don't see it. And they do add to the economy -the service they provide is desired by people, especially those in developing countries who don't have the stable banking and financial systems we do. Even here, people do desire a way to increase their anonymity online, banks want faster transaction processing at lower costs, corporations want to run distributed apps and computing systems . . . all of those things have the potential to disrupt a lot of industries. The crypto that can break through will be valuable to a lot of people even if you don't see it.








*Although it does bring up an interesting aside: I can buy a month's worth of groceries and water for a family of four for less than the price of an ounce of gold. As you just argued, the food and water is much more valuable to our survival than gold is. Why isn't food and water priced much higher than the relatively useless gold? Probably because food and water isn't much good as a store of value. Also, they are consumables and as much as we need them, they are pretty plentiful and we don't want to pay a lot for them.
 
Roman soldiers were paid in salt (salarium hence salary).

This is a myth.
In both the Republican and Imperial period they were paid in coin.

It was Pliny that suggested that the word salarium (salary) came from salarius (salt), and said this was because in the 'old days' soldiers were paid in salt butt he was referring to a nonspecific and hazily remembered distant past.
 
This is a myth.
In both the Republican and Imperial period they were paid in coin.

It was Pliny that suggested that the word salarium (salary) came from salarius (salt), and said this was because in the 'old days' soldiers were paid in salt butt he was referring to a nonspecific and hazily remembered distant past.


It may not be clear but it seems reasonable for the early days. There is no evidence that it did not. You do not explain where you think (or others think) the word came from.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salary
Salarium

The Latin word salarium linked employment and salt, but the exact link is not very clear. Modern sources maintain that the word salarium is derived from the word sal (salt) because at some point a soldier's salary may have been an allowance for the purchase of salt or the price of having soldiers conquer salt supplies and guard the Salt Roads (Via Salaria) that led to Rome. But there is no evidence for this assertion at all. Some people even claim that the word soldier itself comes from the Latin sal dare (to give salt), but mainstream sources disagree, noting that the word soldier more likely derives from the gold solidus introduced by Diocletian in 301 CE.

Roman empire and medieval and pre-industrial Europe

Regardless of the exact connection, the salarium paid to Roman soldiers has defined a form of work-for-hire ever since in the Western world, and gave rise to such expressions as "being worth one's salt".
 
(snip the trash)
Of course they provide a service, just not to you -or at least, you don't see it. And they do add to the economy -the service they provide is desired by people, especially those in developing countries who don't have the stable banking and financial systems we do. Even here, people do desire a way to increase their anonymity online, banks want faster transaction processing at lower costs, corporations want to run distributed apps and computing systems . . . all of those things have the potential to disrupt a lot of industries. The crypto that can break through will be valuable to a lot of people even if you don't see it.

(snip)


No. You don't see it. Or you have a vested interest in promoting the false hype. Tell me you have purchased crypto to buy something rather than hope the price rises so you can make a fiat currency profit.

Here in Africa we have systems that do actually quickly transfer small amount of money by cell-phone to another country. This is needed because of the many migrants sending money back to families. It is quick (minutes), easy and backed by the system. It is legal because the amounts are small. And cheap - millions of transactions.

Anonymity - Why? Illegal? Paranoia?
Faster - you have to be joking or delusional. Give me examples.
Cheaper - what planet are you from?
Disruption - you seem to be an anarchist wanting destruction of the status quo

Countries are working together to stop drug money and money laundering. The Gupta family in South Africa has milked billions illegally in local currency and want to take it out the country. The African despots deposit billions into Swiss and now Dubai accounts and you want this to be legal? You want the misery of the poor in Africa made more miserable?

The system has many problems, and one is that the elite who run the banking systems are sometimes not better than gangsters. The solution is to fix the system not promote illegality.

BTW. Bitcoin is creeping up. The hype is powerful. And you think the people feeding this scam are all altruistic? No, they will cause more misery by becoming rich at the expense of ordinary folk.
 
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You are so wrong it is painful. :jaw-dropp

< ... even wronger stuff snipped ... >
You haven't shown that anything has "intrinsic" value nor even "residual" value. You have merely shown that some things have uses other than as money.

The fact remains that the price of everything is subject to the laws of supply and demand. That is why clean water - even though essential to survival - is so cheap in many parts of the world that we can afford to dump it in gardens. We can even get it free from the sky.

Gold became a "precious" metal mainly because the rulers of ancient communities deemed it so on religious grounds. They hoarded the gold and controlled its distribution thus regulating its "value". By making counters (coins) out of the gold, they relieved themselves of the burden of keeping detailed records of what each individual was entitled to. The number of counters an individual possessed became an automatic (decentralized) record of what they could get from the temple. It also permitted individuals to trade directly among themselves without needing the temple to be an intermediary.
 
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