The Dutch tulip industry is still big. Stocks are still traded in Wall Street. Houses are bought and sold in London.
Last edited:
- Status
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
That's not very honest of you. Everybody knows that the tulip mania of 1636-1637, like the South Sea Bubble and the "Wall Street common stock delusion" were highly speculative rides that couldn't last. Tulips might be legitimately grown and traded today but that is neither here nor there.
The fact that properties and other assets rise and fall depending on the level speculation does not foretell the end of bitcoin.
Any more than the asset price collapse of 1637 foretold the end of tulip horticulture, the collapse of 1929 foretold the end of the NY stock exchange, or the 2008 bursting of the credit bubble stopped housing being bought and sold in London.
Bitcoin is probably a bubble which will go pop soon. If it has a useful function it may survive the crash as a continuing brand. Or it may not. I don't know. But all the examples of booms and slumps I cited are of things that did survive the crashes induced by early speculation in their assets. So it was perfectly honest of me.
ponderingturtle
Orthogonal Vector
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2006
- Messages
- 54,545
I was surprised that it managed to bounce back from the last bubble in it when it lost 80% of its value overnight. I expect this one to be at least similar to the one when MtGOX crashed out. Back in 2013.
It has certainly hung around longer and weathered far more minor mere 20% loss of value than I would have ever thought.
It has certainly hung around longer and weathered far more minor mere 20% loss of value than I would have ever thought.
portlandatheist
Illuminator
- Joined
- Jun 9, 2007
- Messages
- 3,725
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_t...controlled_by_1_000_people_per_bloomberg.html
Bitcoin will end in tears.
I find it ridiculous that bitcoin advocates complain about the federal reserve system or fractional reserve banking system as an unfair system and that somehow bitcoin is better in terms of fairness. It has some benefits such as privacy but that same benefit is also great for people who are not paying their fair share of taxes and by doing so are ripping us off. Are the bitcoin profiteers going to pay capital gains taxes on their "earnings"?
Bitcoin will end in tears.
Actually, there is almost no privacy in bitcoin. There are companies like chainalysis which do forensic analysis of the blockchain, in order to find out who has sold what, and when for a number of clients, including probably the IRS. Most bitcoin exchanges with the exception of bitfinex have to comply with "Know Your Customer" bank rules, which destroy anonymity and privacy. As for "fairness", a lot of people who have frontrun bitcoin in anticipation that it will be an important technology have made a lot of money already, whether or not it will be ultimately accepted by a large number of people. The fact of the matter is that there are only some 16 million bitcoins in existence, with a limit of 21 million, yet there is an unlimited supply of Federal Reserve Notes that elites can issue to deprive people of their property.
There is absolutely no question that the Federal Reserve is the largest scam in human history, and bitcoin is just a symptom.
I think the crash is near. A person who seems more scammish than ten Federal Reserves put together has just sent me an electronic message inviting me to "cash in on the Bitcoin wave", which he can teach me how to do, regardless of the current price of that crypto currency. This adviser gives no personal name or other identifiable details, but trades (from Dublin) in the name of "Bitcoin Millions". His email is decorated with photographs of sparsely clad young women seated on the deck of some kind of boat.
I don't think I'll bet the house on this offer, attractive though it may appear at first sight.
I don't think I'll bet the house on this offer, attractive though it may appear at first sight.
Last edited:
ponderingturtle
Orthogonal Vector
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2006
- Messages
- 54,545
So if bitcoin did crash, how big a recession would that trigger?
Depends how much money has been removed from productive activities to be used for speculation in Bitcoin, and is at risk of vanishing. But perhaps there will be no discernible adverse effects at all.
portlandatheist
Illuminator
- Joined
- Jun 9, 2007
- Messages
- 3,725
And yet US currency is and has been one of the most successful currencies the world has ever seen despite its shortcomings.
ponderingturtle
Orthogonal Vector
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2006
- Messages
- 54,545
It seems most likely to effect some computer manufacturers and power companies.
Hmm I wonder how much this will impact money laundering.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
I don't know what you are arguing.
Tulips an South sea are examples mentioned when one wants to prove that bitcoin will crash and never reach its heady highs again. Although you seem to imply a permanent crash you always seem to stop just short of confirming that this is your belief.
Like I said before, bitcoin is due for another price crash - probably a severe one. However, there is no indication that bitcoin will not recover from the next crash - nor of the many crashes that are sure to follow.
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2005
- Messages
- 96,955
How is it functional when the smallest denomination is so large?
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Bitcoin is divisible into smaller units. The smallest unit is the "satoshi" (10-8 BTC) but other units likely to come into common useage are the mBTC (10-3 BTC) and μBTC (10-6 BTC).
1 BTC is not the smallest denomination; the small denomination is one hundred millionth of a bitcoin, which sells for a bit over 0.01 cents currently. I guess that makes speculating on bitcoin easier in some ways than speculating on stock shares.
I guess fiat currency isn't so worthless after all.
Did you invest in gold when all the gold bugs were predicting doom when Obama got in power?
Skeptic Ginger
Nasty Woman
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2005
- Messages
- 96,955
Interesting. That makes more sense.
I think it likely in the event of a crash, that
Bitcoin may survive, but
Much or most of the value invested in it at the time of the crash will be liquidated and never be recovered in real terms by the speculators. They may suffer an irretrievable loss. Any whose positions are leveraged will be most severely affected, like the speculators holding "on margin" in 1928-29, who were "sold out" by their creditors.
If Bitcoin is to have usefulness as a currency it must acquire reasonable stability and predictability of purchasing power, and of the exchange value its units represent. That excludes its use as a medium of wild speculation.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
That is what they said after MtGox was hacked in 2011. That is what they said after the crisis in Cyprus ended in 2013/4. That is what they said after MtGox folded. That is what they have been saying after every single price peak.
One of the more recent predictions seen on this forum was that when the price of bitcoin was $500, its value would fall to $150 and would remain around that value for the foreseeable future (needless to say, we don't see that poster around anymore).
Who knows? maybe this time the price will fall and stay down for ever more (stopped clock and all that). However, I seriously doubt that yours is the prediction that will stick. You are just the latest in a long line of failed prophets.
Who says it has to "have usefulness as a currency"?
Well, to retain any value at all, it needs to be useful for something, but I see what you mean. This from CNBC
An early bitcoin investor said Monday the digital currency can run higher, but the hype has far outpaced its usability.
"I think in the short run it can run up a lot more," Roger Ver, CEO of Bitcoin.com, said Monday on CNBC's "Fast Money." But "it's no longer a cryptocurrency. It's just a game of hot potato at this point, and games of hot potatoes can go on for a long time, and lots of people can pump a lot of money into it and it might go on for even decades. But as far as its [being] used as money, the developers behind that have destroyed that at this point."
"I think in the short run it can run up a lot more," Roger Ver, CEO of Bitcoin.com, said Monday on CNBC's "Fast Money." But "it's no longer a cryptocurrency. It's just a game of hot potato at this point, and games of hot potatoes can go on for a long time, and lots of people can pump a lot of money into it and it might go on for even decades. But as far as its [being] used as money, the developers behind that have destroyed that at this point."
- Status