Bitcoin - Part 2

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This might be a seasonal thing, but in the run up to christmas the price ramped up quickly to 19,500 fairly quickly. Post christmas saw a continuous drop right back down. Surely, that is indicative of a christmas rush to buy pointless gifts and the subsequent unloading of same by the recipients?

The only certain thing is if you bought bitcoin around 15/16 Dec at 19.5K, those bitcoin are now worth almost exactly half today what you paid for them at 9.75K, todays price.
 
Not sure if it's Christmass gifts. The volumes traded were quite significant. Bitstamp had daily volumes around 25k BTC before Christmas. Biggest drop was 57k sold difference on 22.12. That's almost 1 billion (9 zeros) in USD at price at the time. And that's only the difference at the end of the day. IMHO it must have been professional investors experimenting, or the cryptocurrency wars - early adopters holding huge volumes trying to kickstart their new blockchains.
 
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abaddon said:
The only certain thing is if you bought bitcoin around 15/16 Dec at 19.5K, those bitcoin are now worth almost exactly half today what you paid for them at 9.75K, todays price.
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I agree 100%. And the price could drop a lot further.

It has happened several times before where after the price reached an unprecedented peak, it fell by as much as 90% over the succeeding months before a new wave of interest started the price cycle again.
 
psionl0 said:
Crap! One chart is as "informative and clear" as another (I use bitcoinwisdom myself).

You only like this one because it had a picture of a meter pointing to "sell".
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If you had read PartSkeptic #1791 you would know that this is a new feature; and I was consulting the site long before it appeared.
 
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psionl0 said:
That's not a feature, it's a picture. Do you think that there is some voodoo technology behind that picture?
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Since I don't look st the site to see it, I haven't investigated it. Do so yourself if you want, and tell me what you find.
 
psionl0 said:
I agree 100%. And the price could drop a lot further.

It has happened several times before where after the price reached an unprecedented peak, it fell by as much as 90% over the succeeding months before a new wave of interest started the price cycle again.
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How many cryptos were there a year ago? They say 1400 now.
 
psionl0 said:
Price at time of prediction: $11,558
Current price: $10,109
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Predictions are funny things. Often the timing can be out but the prediction comes true.

Here is a famous one. (See mew-Quran page 174 English version).

Muhammad predicted that within a few years the Romans would be victorious, and so would the Muslims. Conditions were such that it seemed impossible and the disbelievers scoffed. One made a bet of ten camels that it would not happen within 3 years.

Muhammad advised his follower who accepted the bet to increase the bet to 100 camels and 10 years. The impossible happened. By this time Muhammad had forbidden gambling so the camels were accepted (from the disbelievers) but given to charity.

Here is a prediction that came true and was recorded. It caused most of the Arab polytheists to accept Islam.

Samson (a truly Biblical name :) ) may have the timing wrong, but he is not betting against impossible odds. Rather it is you are betting that the impossible will happen and that bitcoin is around to stay.
 
psionl0 said:
(snip)

Setting up some special pleading for your own predictions?
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Past experience. On bitcoin the fall is guaranteed, but it could take some time to get to panic selling. Even then some diehards will hang on. Depends if more suckers can be persuaded to "buy the dip".
 
PartSkeptic said:
Past experience. On bitcoin the fall is guaranteed, but it could take some time to get to panic selling. Even then some diehards will hang on. Depends if more suckers can be persuaded to "buy the dip".
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Clearly not! Every time that analysis has been made in the past (and it has been made many many times) it has proven to be utterly wrong.
 
This video is really great...


https://laughingsquid.com/bitcoin-parody-commercial/

In a very clever parody of a typical daytime television life insurance commercial from Late Night with Seth Meyers, three women sat around a kitchen table at a suburban house clad in very tasteful outfits, playing gin and complaining about how to invest for retirement. One woman stated her Bitcoin strategy and proceeded to explain the concept of cryptocurrency, the ups and downs in the market and the price of a single Bitcoin. One woman named Margaret was immediately ready to buy in without question, while the other woman maintained a healthy dose of skepticism. As it turns out, the commercial was for something else entirely.

This message brought to you by the stock market. Gamble with your retirement the old-fashioned way.
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