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Bitcoin - Part 2

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Dr.Sid said:
Over 3500 again. For how long ?
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The sky's the limit. On the previous cycle (which was consistent with many cycles before it), when the price reached this level it continued rising to over 5 times higher. If it does that again, as it's always reliably done before, then anyone who buys at the current price will make a lot of money. But that's just the beginning. Extrapolating previous cycles indicates the next peak will be over $100,000. It's like an automatic money machine paving a golden road to a magnificent blockchain future. Do you want to get rich, or not?

Please don't interpret any of the above as any sort of prediction or encouragement to invest. If you do it's your own careless misperception!
 
Myriad said:
The sky's the limit. On the previous cycle (which was consistent with many cycles before it), when the price reached this level it continued rising to over 5 times higher. If it does that again, as it's always reliably done before, then anyone who buys at the current price will make a lot of money. But that's just the beginning. Extrapolating previous cycles indicates the next peak will be over $100,000. It's like an automatic money machine paving a golden road to a magnificent blockchain future. Do you want to get rich, or not?

Please don't interpret any of the above as any sort of prediction or encouragement to invest. If you do it's your own careless misperception!
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Your post needs more highlighting.
 
I think the recent development does not allow for even most vague predictions. This jump looks pretty much like the one from January 6th, or even October 15th. I will call the recover when there is steady grow for at least month.
Yet somehow volumes are still stirred till November. It's not like BTC is dead .. it's just stable. Can it be some AI at play trying to micromanage ?
 
Myriad said:
The sky's the limit. On the previous cycle (which was consistent with many cycles before it), when the price reached this level it continued rising to over 5 times higher. If it does that again, as it's always reliably done before, then anyone who buys at the current price will make a lot of money. But that's just the beginning. Extrapolating previous cycles indicates the next peak will be over $100,000. It's like an automatic money machine paving a golden road to a magnificent blockchain future. Do you want to get rich, or not?

Please don't interpret any of the above as any sort of prediction or encouragement to invest. If you do it's your own careless misperception!
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If that was meant to be a parody of me then it is a piss poor effort.

All I have said is that "so far" bitcoin is following past trends. I have never said that it will continue to do so and even if that could be the case, there is no suggestion that the time table will be the same.

Only critical thinkers will realize this.
 
psionl0 said:
All I have said is that "so far" bitcoin is following past trends.
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It's always going to appear to be following past trends, given enough effort from the observer to identify the past trends it can appear to be following.

It's called pareidolia. Your brain is programed to find patterns and cycles even where none exist.

The price of Bitcoin is driven by supply and demand, and the demand is driven the collective dreams and fears of millions of people who buy, hold or sell bitcoin. Nothing else.

The movement of the price of bitcoin is like the ideomotor phenomenon that moves tables at a seance or the planchette of an Ouija board. The movement is real, but unpredictable and of no meaning.
 
Mycroft said:
It's called pareidolia. Your brain is programed to find patterns and cycles even where none exist.
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Large price rises followed by large price falls is a little more than "pareidolia".

While it doesn't mean that a large price rise/fall will happen again, dismissing this as sheer chance is not warranted either.
 
Mycroft said:
It's always going to appear to be following past trends, given enough effort from the observer to identify the past trends it can appear to be following.

It's called pareidolia. Your brain is programed to find patterns and cycles even where none exist.

The price of Bitcoin is driven by supply and demand, and the demand is driven the collective dreams and fears of millions of people who buy, hold or sell bitcoin. Nothing else.

The movement of the price of bitcoin is like the ideomotor phenomenon that moves tables at a seance or the planchette of an Ouija board. The movement is real, but unpredictable and of no meaning.
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A little predictable, we will have a lurch down shortly before anything resembling a lurch up.
This is called technical analysis and is highly predictive when understood.
 
I really like how after the peak in December 2017 it went down, oscillating like underwater explosion. How it stabilized at 6500, which seemed like general trend before the bubble, like all was ready for another grow ! And then it fell to 60%.
Also Samson's predictions .. they were always funny !
 
psionl0 said:
Large price rises followed by large price falls is a little more than "pareidolia".
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Another word used to describe large price rises followed by large price falls is volatility. It's not generally considered to be a good thing when considering investments.

In general, if you notice that rain is often followed by sunshine, which is followed by rain again, you can begin a profitable carrer of always predicting sunshine when it's raining, and predicting rain when the sun is shining. You won't be able to predict when, which takes all the usefulness out of the predictions, but your predicitons will still be 100% accurate.

psionl0 said:
While it doesn't mean that a large price rise/fall will happen again, dismissing this as sheer chance is not warranted either.
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It's not sheer chance. Supply and demand are real forces. It's just that because the driver of demand is the collective hopes/fears of all the millions of Bitcoin investors, you will never be able to understand it well enough to make useful predicitons. The best you're ever going to be able to achieve is to make educated guesses about what happened after it's already happened.
 
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High Cost of Electricity Threatens the 'Industry'?

Bitcoin Price is Now Lower Than Cost of Mining
the production-weighted cash cost to create 1 Bitcoin (BTC) averaged approx. $4,060 worldwide in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2018, analysts from JPMorgan Chase Co. reveal. This cost is much higher than the current Bitcoin price as Bloomberg reports.... BTC itself is currently changing hands at around $3,600...

Low-cost Chinese crypto miners are in a position to pay much less – the guesstimate is approx. $2,400 per BTC... If only low-cost Chinese crypto miners endure, the marginal cost could likely fall to not more than $1,260 per BTC.

High Cost of Electricity Threatens the Industry

...some countries removed electricity tax subsidies that were previously granted to all Bitcoin miners. Norway was one of them. The government claimed this activity consumes too much electricity. It also produces large quantities of greenhouse gases, as Coinidol revealed.

Bitcoin miners were even convicted of stealing electricity. Coinidol reported this to happen in 2017 in Venezuela. This is a clear sign that the activity uses too much energy. So it becomes more expensive for large-scale miners to manage.
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What does this mean? Apart from the obvious fact that China has once again cornered the market, the price could easily drop to $1,260.
 
Roger Ramjets said:
Bitcoin Price is Now Lower Than Cost of MiningWhat does this mean? Apart from the obvious fact that China has once again cornered the market, the price could easily drop to $1,260.
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This was predictable. The very idea of mining BTC by using computers to do essentially nothing productive while eating up electricity was bound to end up with this situation, especially given the diminishing returns nature of the technology.
 
Dr.Sid said:
What exactly was predictable about it ?
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What was predictable was that if Bitcoin ever 'took off', mining it would require ever-increasing processing power - and therefore ever-increasing electricity use. The knock-on effects of this were also quite predictable.

But why must increased processing power equate to increased electricity usage? Because Moore's law is dead.
Moore’s Law is named after Intel cofounder Gordon Moore. He observed in 1965 that transistors were shrinking so fast that every year twice as many could fit onto a chip, and in 1975 adjusted the pace to a doubling every two years.

The chip industry has kept Moore’s prediction alive, with Intel leading the charge. And computing companies have found plenty to do with the continual supply of extra transistors. But Intel pushed back its next transistor technology, with features as small as 10 nanometers, from 2016 to late 2017. The company has also decided to increase the time between future generations (see “Intel Puts the Brakes on Moore’s Law”). And a technology roadmap for Moore’s Law maintained by an industry group, including the world’s largest chip makers, is being scrapped. Intel has suggested silicon transistors can only keep shrinking for another five years.
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Chip density doubling every 2 years? Doesn't sound that dramatic, but in just a few years that geometric progression has given us computers with a million times more transistors in them. To someone like me who was playing around with computers that had only a few kilobytes of RAM, the idea that I would be using a PC with Gigabytes of RAM in it was ludicrous - and yet Moore's Law had already predicted that this would happen.

But Moore's law is failing. A modern high-end CPU or GPU is vastly more powerful than the chips used in early PC's, but also uses a lot more power. The ever-shrinking transistor size was helping to keep power consumption down because smaller transistors can operate faster without using more electricity, but it could not keep up with the insatiable demand for more processing power.

The ever increasing processing power (and therefore energy input) required to mine Bitcoins is not a bug, it's a feature which its inventor and anyone who understood how it worked was well aware off. What they were perhaps not aware of - or chose to ignore- was the scale. I suspect most early bitcoin users either didn't do the math, or were unable to comprehend it - mining Bitcoins on the their PCs and thinking, "If these things take off I might need a more powerful PC", but not considering that when the price hits $1 million due to widespread adoption they will be competing against billion dollar mining pools sucking power directly from hydro dams. But if Bitcoin was to fulfill their dreams then this development was inevitable - and totally predictable.

How widely used Bitcoin will become may not be predictable, but the amount of electricity it will use when it gets there is. Market theory tells us that the 'industry' will find ways to lower its production costs, which in this case means getting cheaper power. So 'miners' will go to locations where they can get it (ie. China). And since mining is a business not an ideology, they don't care if it's cheaper due to government subsidies or slave labor or any other 'immoral' reason (even theft, if they can get away with it).
 
Mycroft said:
It's not sheer chance. BUT . . < here comes the contradiction > . . .
Supply and demand are real forces. It's just that because the driver of demand is the collective hopes/fears of all the millions of Bitcoin investors, you will never be able to understand it well enough to make useful predicitons. The best you're ever going to be able to achieve is to make educated guesses about what happened after it's already happened.
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You seem to be arguing that bitcoin prices are like a roulette wheel - you can never tell what number is coming up next.

I would argue that it is like a biased roulette wheel. You still don't know what number is coming up next but you know that some numbers are more likely than others.
 
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