Attack on Iran ...

[Jocko]

I suspect that there are many that would say that the USSR wasn't really that big a threat.

I also doubt, that if Belgium got hit, they would do much more than bleed.

But that's cool, because getting blindsided and bleeding profusely is a sure way to get loads of Euro love, like we did on September 11th.

Yeah, that and $2.50 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbuck's.

 

[luchog]

I do believe that they would. France has a border with Belgium for a start, and I don't think they'd stand by. I don't think the UK would either.

Not to mention all that wonderful beer. That's enough to get anyone in a "push the button" mood. (Well, maybe not the UK, they make some darn good beer themselves.)

 

[CapelDodger]

The world's economy is dependent on oil which means the USA would be effected if Iranian oil stopped reaching the market place regardless of whether the USA directly imports oil from Iran or not.

Were China to engage with sanctions - which I don't think they would - the world oil market would indeed get heated.

I'm with headscratcher that Iran needs the outside world more than vice versa. China can't yet supply all that Iranians demand. Ahmedinejad is a rube who doesn't recognise that fact. Sanctions would undermine the current regime pretty damn' fast, and it's already on the slide.

I agree with Hutch that the genie being out of the bottle. Even a democratic Iran is likely to want nuclear weapons, and how are they to be denied? As democrats, why should they be treated differently from France or the UK (who can definitely hit Iran, no question)?

 

[CapelDodger]

Better you should ask Iran why THEY singled out one particular country for "special consideration."

It's the most recently arrived. Bound to get picked-on by the locals.

 

[CapelDodger]

So if Ahmadinejad takes a sudden disliking to, I dunno, Moldovans, they're in.

But not Serbs, surely.

 

[CapelDodger]

This idea that Iran will turn bits of Palestine to slag for the sake of the Palestinians, and irradiate the Al-Aqsa Mosque and Dome of the Rock in the process, is ludicrous. Just thought that needed pointing out, though it's hard to see why.

 

[CapelDodger]

Israel won't allow Iran to go nuclear.

Israelis as Nietzschian Supermen. That's ironic.

 

[CapelDodger]

I do believe that they would. France has a border with Belgium for a start, and I don't think they'd stand by. I don't think the UK would either.

Considering the sheer bloody cost of their nuclear deterrents over the decades a government that didn't respond would be dead before morning. Considering how aerated some Europeans get over burning embassies the Iranians would have to be psychotic - which they aren't - to think otherwise.

 

[WildCat]

This idea that Iran will turn bits of Palestine to slag for the sake of the Palestinians, and irradiate the Al-Aqsa Mosque and Dome of the Rock in the process, is ludicrous. Just thought that needed pointing out, though it's hard to see why.

They absolutely would, the Arab states and a good chunk of the Islamic ones have been using the Palistinians to their own ends for 50 years now. Why would that suddenly stop?

 

[CapelDodger]

The overwhelming issue for this century is that the dijiin released by Albert and Nels and Enrico and Oppie can't be put back into a bottle. The ability and number of states to join the nuclear club will continue to grow during the 21st century, and either those states will mature or we will see the use of these weapons before this century is out.

What is needed is a whole new diplomatic structure to take account of this reality. The current structure is essentially the one set up by the victorious Allies of 1945. Since then the British and French Empires have disappeared, so has the USSR, Red China, India, Israel and Pakistan are nuclear. Better to forget non-proliferation and instead concentrate on safety - sharing best-practice and technology in the control of launches, which the old Allies have a great deal of experience in. White-knuckle stuff occasionally, but experience worth sharing.

 

[CapelDodger]

They absolutely would, the Arab states and a good chunk of the Islamic ones have been using the Palistinians to their own ends for 50 years now. Why would that suddenly stop?

They have used the plight of the Palestinians, and crocodile tears of sympathy, to exploit the Palestinian situation. Nuking Palestine to win it back for the Palestinians would raise some questions in the most complaisant of audiences.

 

[WildCat]

They have used the plight of the Palestinians, and crocodile tears of sympathy, to exploit the Palestinian situation. Nuking Palestine to win it back for the Palestinians would raise some questions in the most complaisant of audiences.

No, no, no! They'd nuke the Palistinians straight to their heavenly reward, while at the same time sending the Jews to hell. Praise be to Allah!

eta: and don't the Iranian Shia believe there must be an Armageddon-style war w/ Israel?

 

[CapelDodger]

eta: and don't the Iranian Shia believe there must be an Armageddon-style war w/ Israel?

Not at all. Israel was not conceived in their philosophy, but in a European one. Shi'ism accords no leading role to Jews, except as the earliest religious archaeology. Shi'ism's focus is within Islam. Western intrusion (of which Israel is a product) is to be repelled, just as the Crusaders were, after which the real issue - the nature of Islam - can be addressed. Go figure. Who can understand the religious?

 

[CapelDodger]

No, no, no! They'd nuke the Palistinians straight to their heavenly reward, while at the same time sending the Jews to hell. Praise be to Allah!

I think they're very aware that The Jews isn't an entity that lives in Israel. Ahmadinajaket's Holocaust Denial fest is going to be a bit short of stars after his comments about Israeli Jews being expelled to Austria and Germany. (If I had my 'druthers the Jewish State would have been created in Austria in 1945, that's a state I could support. Screw the Austrians.) What a rube. And what rubes he makes Iranians look to much of the outside world, which must be deeply irritating to many Iranians.

I foresee big changes in Iran over the next few years. There's already a democracy with a history, it just isn't quite sovereign yet. That can change. Sometimes a head has to be cut off, sometimes ridicule suffices.