Atanus Won!

[jj]

No one is actually wringing their hands. Several of us have pointed out the JJ is probably being a little melodramatic about the possible outcome. JJ?

Perhaps you should look above for my last comment. Just a hint, there.

 

[Brainster]

There will be no bleeding on the Dem side. The Dem gerrymandering of Illinois reduced the likely margin in the 9th to 66/34, just about what she won by in 2012. It's kind of a party line District. But conservatives in that area may well be of the old-school immigrant variety and many of those (particularly the Jewish ones) are not going to vote for a fundie nut job. The only way this one is close is if the mainstream GOP desert the crazies and run an "Independent" and put Mike Ditka on the ballot.

Off-year election so she'll probably lose about 4% net, so yeah, she seems safe. Maybe the nutbar factor makes it a wash and she wins by 66-34 again. I don't see the GOP devoting any significant resources to this campaign, when there is plenty of lower hanging fruit out there.

There will be plenty of bleeding on the Dem side in the Senate and some in the House. On the other hand, the GOP will probably lose a couple of governorships.

 

[TimCallahan]

Boggle.

So your hypothesis is that while crossing lines to vote for Dillard and against Rauner, the crossing lines democrats studied up on the other candidates and voted for the very best candidates?

Hee hee!

I cited the fact that I live in the District and numerous people told me that they had pulled a Republican ballot to vote for Dillard and were going to vote for this nutjob too.
I get that you judge that insufficient because "nae True Chicago Democrat" would every play tricks with an election!

Numerous people telling you something doesn't constitute proof. Yes, I do understand that Chicago politics is nasty. So, it could have happened as you said. Or it might not have been that way, and you have not really provided proof.

That said, the real problem for Republicans, as I see it, is that nut jobs like Atanus, Sharon Angle and Christine O'Donnell, can even get enough support to make it to the primary. In Nevada, Harry Reid was trailing Sharon Angle in the polls by, IIRC, 13% at the beginning of the campaign. Any competent Republican candidate should have been able to trounce him. You can't blame Angle's nomination on dirty Democratic Party politics.

 

[SezMe]

I don't see the GOP devoting any significant resources to this campaign, when there is plenty of lower hanging fruit out there.

Agreed. The GOP will treat this race as a hot potato. I'm hard pressed to see any GOP money or celebrities going anywhere near it.

 

[WildCat]

Numerous people telling you something doesn't constitute proof. Yes, I do understand that Chicago politics is nasty. So, it could have happened as you said. Or it might not have been that way, and you have not really provided proof.

Do you think the Illinois 9th District suddenly turned red?

That said, the real problem for Republicans, as I see it, is that nut jobs like Atanus, Sharon Angle and Christine O'Donnell, can even get enough support to make it to the primary. In Nevada, Harry Reid was trailing Sharon Angle in the polls by, IIRC, 13% at the beginning of the campaign. Any competent Republican candidate should have been able to trounce him. You can't blame Angle's nomination on dirty Democratic Party politics.

The early polls were people who were against Reid, not for Angle. Once they realized what a loon Angle was they held their nose and voted for the lesser of 2 evils.

 

[jj]

Agreed. The GOP will treat this race as a hot potato. I'm hard pressed to see any GOP money or celebrities going anywhere near it.

Well, we have to hold their nose up to it then and ask why they aren't supporting their own candidate.

 

[The Big Dog]

Numerous people telling you something doesn't constitute proof. Yes, I do understand that Chicago politics is nasty. So, it could have happened as you said. Or it might not have been that way, and you have not really provided proof.

That said, the real problem for Republicans, as I see it, is that nut jobs like Atanus, Sharon Angle and Christine O'Donnell, can even get enough support to make it to the primary. In Nevada, Harry Reid was trailing Sharon Angle in the polls by, IIRC, 13% at the beginning of the campaign. Any competent Republican candidate should have been able to trounce him. You can't blame Angle's nomination on dirty Democratic Party politics.

Well there wasn't any competent candidate. The district is overwhelming Democrat in an overwhelmingly democrat state. Nobody bothered.

Did I hear that the republicans were going to draft Ditka to run against Jan in this thread or somewhere else? That would be fantastic.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Well there wasn't any competent candidate. The district is overwhelming Democrat in an overwhelmingly democrat state. Nobody bothered.

Did I hear that the republicans were going to draft Ditka to run against Jan in this thread or somewhere else? That would be fantastic.

That was my suggestion as to what would be needed to "make it close" as someone had proffered. Or, as this is Illinois, they could run the statue of Everett Dirksen that's down in Springfield. He'd out-poll the crazy lady.

Oh, and I agree that serious candidates and those not mentally damaged will run away from this race. But that latter category means we always have the psycho fund-raisers like Palin who can embarrass the crap out of everyone and show up just to sell a few more books. And being Second City, there's enough media in Chicago.... Evil Librul Media.... to put the race in the limelight.

 

[turingtest]

She has...interesting... views on the economy. From this article:

In a statement to Windy City Times, Atanus said she "will fix the economy with Common Sense Economics for Prosperity for All with daily positive returns on stocks so the l% will not get richer and richer. With more income, we will purchase more goods and services and this will create more jobs-the Greatest Economic Stimulus!"

From that same article:

Atanus also said she does not believe in the separation of church and state.
"I believe that maybe there should be an amendment to get that out of the Constitution because God will never go away," Atanus said.

...while being herself a good example of exactly the reason SOCAS, as a principle, is in there.

 

[TimCallahan]

. . . (snip) . . . The early polls were people who were against Reid, not for Angle. Once they realized what a loon Angle was they held their nose and voted for the lesser of 2 evils.

That is precisely my point. The Republican Party has a problem in that they either could not or did not choose to run a viable candidate against Harry Reid. Were this an isolated case one could write Sharon Angle off as an anomaly. However, there was also Christine O'Donnell in Maryland and Joe Miller in Alaska. One can only hope the Tea Party loses what hold it has on the GOP.

 

[Foolmewunz]

That is precisely my point. The Republican Party has a problem in that they either could not or did not choose to run a viable candidate against Harry Reid. Were this an isolated case one could write Sharon Angle off as an anomaly. However, there was also Christine O'Donnell in Maryland and Joe Miller in Alaska. One can only hope the Tea Party loses what hold it has on the GOP.

The problem is that they've discovered the soft underbelly of the system - the primaries. I do not doubt that they fervently believe in their crazy ****. And I do not doubt that they can find enough supporters in red districts to put up some kind of vote count (unlike this district where I tend to agree that it was a nonsense vote), and what they've figured out is that NO ONE SHOWS UP TO VOTE IN THE PRIMARIES for local elections, so a hard core of 10,000 voters might be their entire support in a district or county, but if 90% of them get out and vote, they can steal a nomination. In super-safe red seats, this can account for getting some of these feeble minded critters to state assemblies or even the House/Senate. But in swing districts and states, it's hurting the GOP.

Now, for the ideologues and the Fox True Believers, continuing to nominate these folks may be what they feel is their true calling, but the swing vote in the battleground states is where you win the White House, and we're seeing more and more that there are similar Senate and House seats. The longer the GOP "plays to the primaries", the farther to the right they're forcing themselves. (Just look at Ryan's posturing recently. He's playing to the hard core TP vote, IMHO. With the Round Mound of Revenge on the ropes in NJ, Ryan becomes the "moderate" until Jeb steps up. So he reckons he's got the fiscal conservatives but needs to fire up the picketing whackos.)

Observation: Everyone complains about the "machines" but Tammany Hall or the ward politicians in Chicago proper and New Orleans and Boston knew/know how to get their supporters out there for the primaries if they need to. Since the "machines" are always facing internal white knight challenges, they know to never take anything as a "lock". I can find you a large number of bigoted clowns in the five boroughs of NYC. I sincerely doubt you'll ever see one sneak in as a TP challenger to the mainstream GOP candidate, though.

 

[FenerFan]

She has...interesting... views on the economy. From this article:


From that same article:


...while being herself a good example of exactly the reason SOCAS, as a principle, is in there.

In Turkish, "at" means horse and "anus" has the same meaning in both languages (actually, Turkish adds a little heavy metal, anüs).

I think her surname fits her well.

 

[TimCallahan]

The problem is that they've discovered the soft underbelly of the system - the primaries. I do not doubt that they fervently believe in their crazy ****. And I do not doubt that they can find enough supporters in red districts to put up some kind of vote count (unlike this district where I tend to agree that it was a nonsense vote), and what they've figured out is that NO ONE SHOWS UP TO VOTE IN THE PRIMARIES for local elections, so a hard core of 10,000 voters might be their entire support in a district or county, but if 90% of them get out and vote, they can steal a nomination. In super-safe red seats, this can account for getting some of these feeble minded critters to state assemblies or even the House/Senate. But in swing districts and states, it's hurting the GOP. . . . (major snip) . . .

This also holds true for off-year elections, those between presidential elections. My wife and I regularly volunteer as poll workers. Often, we spend much of the day doing something to pass the time, having only a voter or two show up every hour. On one occasion, when we were working in another district from our own, I looked up the number of voters on the roster and counted the number who actually voted, then figured out the percentage of registered voters who voted in that precinct. It came to 22%.

IIRC, the year Newt Gingrich foisted his Contract on America on us, voter turnout over all was 25% of the registered electorate. If, in such a situation, a corps of voters constituting 15% of the electorate turns out in force, then that 15% constitutes 60% of those actually voting (15/25 = 3/5 = 60%). Thus, seeming to come up with a stunning majority, these ideologues can claim a mandate from the voters.