Astrological accuracy.

[Soapy Sam]

I gotta get in before an astrologer does.

If Curver and Ianna actually proved that 89% of astrologers' predictions were "wrong", is that not itself an amazing fact?
Sceptics would have expected nearer 50% if guesswork were the only principle in operation.
Surely this means that there is a REAL EFFECT being demonstrated? Albeit a negative one?

Well yes, I suspect there is.
It's called "stupidity".

 

[espritch]

Technically, you'd only expect 50% correct by chance if the predictions were ones where there were only 2 possibilities having equal likelyhood. If an astrologer predicts that you will find 50$ laying on the street tomarrow, there are two possibilities: either you will find it or you will not. But they are not equally likely events.

 

[shanek]

Anyone can easily demonstrate the inaccuracy of horoscopes. I'll do it right now. I'll take my horoscope (Leo) for today (Jan. 25) from three separate sources: My local paper (The Charlotte Observer), Yahoo!, and Astrology.com.

Here's the Charlotte Observer:

LEO (July 23-Aug. 22): Circumstances take turn in your favor; you get proverbial lucky break. Elements of timing, luck ride with you. At the track, choose number 3 post position in third race.

Yahoo.com:

Today you might attend more than one group activity or social event involving spiritual or metaphysical matters. Your sense of intuition is very high, dear Leo, and your level of understanding is especially acute. Therefore, concepts - which may be confusing at other times - could seem as clear as a bell today. You could form strong bonds with others who are also present, and might make plans to meet with them again in the future. Enjoy!

Very different, aren't they? Yahoo's astrologers seemed to miss the "lucky break" coming my way and the Observer's missed my "spiritual and metaphysical matters."

Now let's look at Astrology.com:

You've had your time in the spotlight, and now it's time to let someone else bask in its glow. Besides, no matter how much you've accomplished in the past, it's still hard to resent someone else in their moment of glory. You're so often favored by the Stars that you could stand a day or two out of the limelight anyway. As the day turns into night, some celestial influences track you into an age-appropriate learning curve. Do your best to follow along.

Wow! Not only is it completely different from the first two, it actually contradicts the Observer! The Observer told me to take advantage of a lucky break; Astrology.com just told me to take a break and let someone else have a chance.

I've done this before to demonstrate this to people, and this is actually one of the better times. They usually contradict each other a great deal more!

If there's anything at all to this, why don't they at least agree?

 

[LW]

Well, last month I encountered somewhere an interesting horoscope (can't remember where or for what sign):

... On the 24th you will meet a man who has disappointed you before. ...

Right on target. (I wonder whether the "astrologer" realised that he or she was writing the casts for December)