aliens

[3point14]

Our current estimates for how much universe is out there and how common reasonably habitable planets are would make it virtually guaranteed, yes. We could be wrong about some of our assumptions, but that's what the current scientific consensus is.

I don't think we've defined any of them as 'reasonably habitable' have we? I think we've just found some where water will probably be liquid.

We have no idea what conditions are required to cause abiogenesis and what conditions would prevent it. We have an incomplete picture of how life arose on planet earth and we have exactly one abiogenesis event to look at, a single data point proving nothing.


I would also note that we have found very few, if any, goldilocks zone planets around stars like ours. The last I read, we'd given up looking.


I really don't think we have any data at all upon which to in any way accurately assess the question 'is there other life out there?'

 

[Ron Swanson]

I think the 20 odd points of the Fermi paradox explain every possibility of why we haven't and why will never see alien life forms from other planets.

 

[SOdhner]

I would also note that we have found very few, if any, goldilocks zone planets around stars like ours. The last I read, we'd given up looking.

Quite the opposite.

Let's say there are 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 stars in the universe. The estimate of how many of those stars have planets in the habitable zone is 1/5 so that would be 200,000,000,000,000 (and some would have multiple planets). Of the solar systems we've gotten a really close look at, 100% had at least one planet with life (yes, I'm being snarky here and referring to Earth). But if we instead say this is a billion in one chance, there are still more than two hundred thousand planets out there with life on them.

 

[3point14]

Quite the opposite.

Let's say there are 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 stars in the universe. The estimate of how many of those stars have planets in the habitable zone is 1/5 so that would be 200,000,000,000,000 (and some would have multiple planets).

This is not the same as 'reasonably habitable. Venus is in the habitable zone around Sol. Venus is in no way 'reasonably habitable' The same applies, to a lesser degree, to Mars.

Of the solar systems we've gotten a really close look at, 100% had at least one planet with life (yes, I'm being snarky here and referring to Earth).

A single data point is useless for the assessment of odds.

But if we instead say this is a billion in one chance, there are still more than two hundred thousand planets out there with life on them.

We can't say what the chance is. We have no reliable data upon which to assess the odds of abiogenesis anywhere other than earth, let alone the odds of multi-cellular life or conscious life occurring.

 

[SOdhner]

In the end I'm just going to agree to disagree since I'm mainly basing this on having heard multiple experts say so and I don't feel like trying to dig up stuff to justify it since I honestly don't know exactly what they based their statements on. It's enough for me to know that people I believe know what they're talking about have said it. I'm not suggesting that should be enough to convince you of anything, it's just that I don't want to get into a big long thing in this particular thread.

One thing though:

let alone the odds of multi-cellular life or conscious life occurring.

I'm not setting the bar very high, and am not suggesting there is currently *intelligent* life, though I wouldn't be surprised if there was and think there probably has been at some point and will be in the future.

 

[3point14]

In the end I'm just going to agree to disagree since I'm mainly basing this on having heard multiple experts say so and I don't feel like trying to dig up stuff to justify it since I honestly don't know exactly what they based their statements on. It's enough for me to know that people I believe know what they're talking about have said it. I'm not suggesting that should be enough to convince you of anything, it's just that I don't want to get into a big long thing in this particular thread.

Fair enough

 

[abaddon]

We can't say what the chance is. We have no reliable data upon which to assess the odds of abiogenesis anywhere other than earth, let alone the odds of multi-cellular life or conscious life occurring.

That is not exactly true. Amino acids are commonly referred to as the building blocks of life and we further know that these occur in abundance throughout the galaxy, if not the universe. That being the case, abiogenesis elsewhere is more likely. For that matter, how many times did abiogenesis occur on earth? Just the once? or are we simply the latest one that managed to survive?

 

[Bikewer]

One of my Google News feeds points out this morning that the MIT Astsronomy lab has examined the old (1973) “Zookeeper” idea which has aliens keeping an apparently-benevolent watch over us, as we are too primitive at this point...

They credit this idea to MIT astronomer John Ball, but seems to me that particular rather fanciful notion has been floating around science fiction circles much longer than that...

One of those unfalsifiable claims, like guardian angels....

(I can’t post links from my news feed on my tablet... It’s on “Inquisitor”)

My thought is that alien life evolved to our level of intelligence may be exceedingly rare, given the age of the universe and the time it took for second-generation stars to form with complex, rocky planets, and then for life to start and eventually evolve to a state of technology.
The universe is 14 billion years old, and our (2nd generation) star is 5 billion.... And it took essentially all that time for us to arrive on the scene and become technological.

Some astronomers have proposed that ours in an “early maturing” system. It’s certainly possible that another race could “beat us to the punch”, but equally likely that they lag behind.

 

[Axxman300]

I've had biology and marine biology classes in college, and the big question for me is:

Would we recognize an extraterrestrial if we saw one?

Humans are not the dominant species on this planet, bacteria is, and Arthropods come in second. So why are we expecting little green/gray men?

Then if you look at the earth's timeline Homosapien has been around for around 120,000 years, which is nothing. The Cretaceous Period lasted 79 million years, and while the dinosaurs are gone now the bacteria is still around. Plus, in those 79 million years none of the dinosaurs evolved to the point of making technology, or if they did they never felt the need to do so.

And so when we look up at the night sky and see starlight that is billions of years old the next question is:

What does technology that has advanced over one million, ten million, or even one billion years look like?

If you walked into Edison's lab and handed him an iPhone would he understand it without you telling him anything?

When we talk about aliens and their technology we tend to put a human stamp on it, and that is a mistake.

And no, I'm not a UFO guy.

 

[Armitage72]

Would we recognize an extraterrestrial if we saw one?

Humans are not the dominant species on this planet, bacteria is, and Arthropods come in second. So why are we expecting little green/gray men?

Apropos to nothing, this is why, in my Champions campaign, there are no Star Trek aliens who look like humans with pointy ears or bumpy foreheads, or humans wearing animal masks. The aliens couldn't pass for human in a dark room. For example, there's a machine race that looks like a cloud of metal cubes inside a tornado made of lightning. There's another fungus-based race that could pass for an exotic potted plant if it retracted its limbs and kept still.

 

[William Parcher]

If you walked into Edison's lab and handed him an iPhone would he understand it without you telling him anything?

If that phone does what it does he might understand that it's some kind of communication device. Voices come from it and respond to his voice. Oh, a speaker and a microphone. I don't understand very much about it but it's a device that allows discussions between two talkers who aren't right next to each other.

 

[PhantomWolf]

I've had biology and marine biology classes in college, and the big question for me is:

Would we recognize an extraterrestrial if we saw one?

Humans are not the dominant species on this planet, bacteria is, and Arthropods come in second. So why are we expecting little green/gray men?

Then if you look at the earth's timeline Homosapien has been around for around 120,000 years, which is nothing. The Cretaceous Period lasted 79 million years, and while the dinosaurs are gone now the bacteria is still around. Plus, in those 79 million years none of the dinosaurs evolved to the point of making technology, or if they did they never felt the need to do so.

And so when we look up at the night sky and see starlight that is billions of years old the next question is:

What does technology that has advanced over one million, ten million, or even one billion years look like?

If you walked into Edison's lab and handed him an iPhone would he understand it without you telling him anything?

When we talk about aliens and their technology we tend to put a human stamp on it, and that is a mistake.

And no, I'm not a UFO guy.

There are certain things that a Alien would need to get here. A complex brain that would allow for higher intelligence needed to understand and solve the problems of space travel and also having the ability to learn and pass on information. A form of communication and the ability to store information for future Generations to learn from. Some way to manipulate their environment and allow for them to craft the tools that would be required to build craft to get here. And some sort of societal basis to be able to have the resources and systems in place to build the craft to get here.

You also need to have a planetary environment that can support them. For instance if you have an insect race then you'd need to have a planet with high oxygen, similar to the Carboniferous Era on Earth and they would likely find it hard to breath if they came here.

I'm also unsure as to how well a hive mind would work towards becoming a space faring species due to the greater centralization, which tends to lead to a lack of expertise and innovation.

In the end, I would expect that while they might be quite different to ourselves, that when it comes to a space faring species visiting Earth, then yes, we would be able to recognise them as such.

Where it might be harder is is we were trying to identify a intergalactic stowaway such as an alien cockroach or bacterium left behind by alien visitors.

 

[3point14]

Apropos to nothing, this is why, in my Champions campaign, there are no Star Trek aliens who look like humans with pointy ears or bumpy foreheads, or humans wearing animal masks. The aliens couldn't pass for human in a dark room. For example, there's a machine race that looks like a cloud of metal cubes inside a tornado made of lightning. There's another fungus-based race that could pass for an exotic potted plant if it retracted its limbs and kept still.

I hope the special effects budget for your prospective movie is huge

 

[Jack by the hedge]

If you travel fast enough, you could light-years in days time, from the frame of reference of the crew.

Though if the crew could only tolerate 1g acceleration for long periods, you'd need to add a year of speeding up and a year of slowing down.

 

[Loss Leader]

I will bet $11.95 that the OP already has a well-defined point of view from which he cannot be dissuaded.

 

[fuelair]

When you think about aliens visiting earth you have to get past the speed of light; it's not just a good idea, it's the law. Aliens would have to be long lived, be on generational ships, or have figured out a way around the light speed barrier. If the aliens lived in something close to earth gravity, they'd have to have a way to simulate that on their vessels. When you consider all the technical difficulties with space travel, it's reasonable to conclude that it's possible but unlikely that we have been visited by aliens.

There would have to be some big payoff to spending all those resources to visit the earth and it's probably more than the data from anal probes. Are there other forms of life in the universe? Almost certainly. However, the distance between planets containing life is, to say the least, a daunting barrier.

Based on the adjusted by me above thing, remember the apparent intelligence level of those who have openly claimed to have been in the aliens' grasp!!!!

 

[fuelair]

I heard President Trump wanted them kept out, or something.

Clearly he is afraid that if they probe him anally they will find out there is nothing in there but fecal matter!!!!!!

 

[Mike!]

I will bet $11.95 that the OP already has a well-defined point of view from which he cannot be dissuaded.

She.

But that's only a guess, of course, I have at least 50/50 chance on it being correct.

 

[Aqua]

Not all proponents of alien visitation believe that the Earth is being visited by extraterrestrials. There is an increasing number of researchers who propose that the activity is entirely of Earthly origin. One of the earliest proponents of this was a French researcher by the name of Jacques Vallée, who switched to an interdimensional hypothesis after taking part in the US government’s early research of the phenomenon. According to Vallée, humanity is being influenced by a phenomenon that is highly complex and difficult to understand. Neither Vallée or his colleagues managed to figure out the exact purpose(s) of the alleged influence.

 

[crhkrebs]

Not all proponents of alien visitation believe that the Earth is being visited by extraterrestrials. There is an increasing number of researchers who propose that the activity is entirely of Earthly origin.

So we're visiting ourselves?

One of the earliest proponents of this was a French researcher by the name of Jacques Vallée, who switched to an interdimensional hypothesis after taking part in the US government’s early research of the phenomenon.

What phenomenon? What research? What government agency?

According to Vallée, humanity is being influenced by a phenomenon that is highly complex and difficult to understand.

So not the Illuminati? We are getting into David Icke territory here.

Neither Vallée or his colleagues managed to figure out the exact purpose(s) of the alleged influence.

How surprising. I'm shocked.

Gotta give the guy credit. He's even linking Our Lady of Lourdes to UFOs.