The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2006
- Messages
- 36,364
This also explains the "changing shape" you've noticed. The virus has gone from spreading rapidly/killing rapidly to spreading slowly/killing slowly.... so we can logically expect a significant shift in the way it presents.
I was more referring to the shape of the human perspective of the disease than the virus itself, but I take your point - even though I'm not sure your analogy is all that accurate.
I think the changing spread of the disease is more about changing behaviour than viral mutation.
Here are a few debunking web sites of this particular nonsense and Dabljuh's twisted logic.
Extremely well put case. Thanks.
The UNICEF link explains it. They've had a long drought, and a lot of war. They're dying from starvation and violence, and a small decrease in HIV prevalence isn't going to eclipse that. Also, a lot of HIV infected individuals are dying, and apparently no longer quite replacing themselves with one or more new infections there so quickly before death.
Make sense?
Sure. I'm actually very well aware of the Kenyan situation. I know that AIDS education is #1 priority from birth in the parts of Kenya actually receiving education, so the message is clearly getting through. The fact that changes in sexual behaviour have resulted in immediate lowering of AIDS cases and deaths does tend to support conventional thinking.
I'm not 100% convinced by UNICEF's picture of drought and violence causing the decreasing life expectancy, either. The drought's peak effects were in 2004/5, by which time the life expectancy has shown a small upturn, which would kind of dent their theory a little. Interesting that Dabjah mentions TB, because that's a disease which has increased enormously in Kenya in the time frame under question. 30% increase between 2000 and 2002
Given that AIDS was falling at the time, I think it's reasonable to assume that the non-AIDS sector of TB may have been rising by as much as 50% in that time. That has a pretty deleterious effect on mortality rates.
