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Abenomics: medicine or poison for Japan?

Medicine or poison?

  • Medicine

    Votes: 12 27.3%
  • Poison

    Votes: 3 6.8%
  • Don't know

    Votes: 18 40.9%
  • Planet X

    Votes: 11 25.0%

  • Total voters
    44
kevsta,

This is all quite beyond me, but the Nikkei closed today at 14,472 and change.

Is this working out as you had planned and have you made money overall on your recent trades?

I'm on your side, and hope that in a couple years when you're fabulously rich you'll remember your buddies on the JREF forum!
 
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Once again you are arguing by repetition. Quantitative easing is simply a term pasted onto the polity Friedman was describing, that is increasing the money supply until there is measurable inflation in the economy.

Here Friedman is again,
[...]


This is what the BoJ is doing now. Not that I needed it but it's also worth noting it fits exactly the wiki link you submitted as evidence

NO - it DOES NOT fit my link. I will continue to point out your fundamental misunderstanding as often as you repeat it. Here is the quote from the wiki link that you failed to consider ....

A central bank implements quantitative easing by buying financial assets from commercial banks and other private institutions, thus increasing the monetary base.

This is from your Friedman quote.

The answer is straightforward: The Bank of Japan can buy government bonds on the open market, paying for them with either currency or deposits at the Bank of Japan,

If you can't distinguish buying government issue bonds on the open market (conventional monetary policy) vs buying assets of commercial banks and private institutions (unconventional QE), then you are incapable of participating in a serious discussion. These are two distinct things.

Again argument by repetition.

Since you continue to recite the same errors, how else can I respond ?

STOP complaining that I repeat the same rebuttal and start addressing the actual issue. QE is NOT conventional monetary policy, and Freidman never suggested QE. Specifically Friedman was not suggesting buying assets of private and commercial banks.


========

Regardless of whether the Yen goes up or down Japanese will:
1) sell bonds on fear of inflation, which is a by product of economic growth
2) buy stocks on the prospect of economic growth.

1) Nonsense. In the past 2 decades J has had two brief blips to 2% inflation and has averaged well under 0.5% inflation in that period. The only reason Japanese fear inflation now is a direct result of the planned currency devaluation. You are trying to argue that econ growth causes inflation which is patently false in theory and demonstrably wrong by evidence.

2) So how could Abenomics create real economic growth (not nominal growth as measured in devalued yen) ? The currency manipulation and bond shuffling is a book-keeping matter. It doesn't make exports any cheaper or better in real term unless the local population takes a std of living cut or magically become more productive. It does rearrange assets (stealing from lenders; giving to borrowers incl gov) but that doesn't make Toyotas any more competitive.

Abenomics includes some growth and productivity improving measures, increasing female labor force participation, streamlining and eliminating regulation. These are the only parts of Abenomics that MIGHT lead to real growth, but this is unclear.


Since this is exactly what's happening we can conclude Japanese investors are predicting economic growth.

Major logical fallacy here.
"IF X then Y", does not make "Y is true therefore X" a true statement.

You argument is predicated on the false premises the econ growth implies inflation, and that devaluing the currency while the government absorbs excess debt creates real growth. Neither is correct.


Perhaps for a few multinationals this is true, but the broader market the value of the Yen isn't a big long term factor because it's dominated by domestic investment.

Puzzling comment since the price-inflation impact is in domestically denominated holding, not foreign denominated ones.


Also you seem to be making a fundamental mistake in treating stocks to something like gold that has little intrinsic value and gains it's price though trade. Stocks on the other hand can be valued based on their earnings. If those earnings are expected to increase the price goes up. This is how investors like Warren Buffet make their money.

No one rational suggests values is based on trade; value is entirely subjective - even for stocks. So stocks values are not based on earnings as you suggest, but often partially based on expectations of earnings. This is a major distinction.

No, You've failed to describe how Abenomics can increase expectations of earnings except in the short run for the short-sighted who confuse price and value; or ppl who are 'jazzed' by the thought that any change is an improvement. How does Abenomics make Sony and Toyota products more competitive exports ? It is not by the purchase of bonds and not by the devaluation of currency. It may be by reducing the J standard of living, but that's unlikely to be an economic gain for the nation.
 
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Credit default swaps on JGBs getting cheaper:

Abe Unleashed After Vote Seen in Biggest Risk Drop

Japan’s bond risk is falling at the fastest pace in the developed world on bets Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will win a stronger mandate for economic stimulus in this weekend’s parliamentary elections.

Credit-default swaps that insure Japanese government bonds for five years slid 13 basis points in the past month to 69 basis points yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Contracts for U.S. Treasuries slid three basis points during the period, while those for German bunds gained three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point.

Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner are poised to win a majority in a July 21 upper-house election, the Nikkei newspaper reported yesterday, granting them control of both chambers of parliament. That will give the premier free rein to pursue a growth and fiscal consolidation plan known as Abenomics that has earned plaudits by debt-grading companies Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service.

“The elimination of the hung parliament will make it easier for the administration to carry out Abenomics,” said Kiyoshi Ishigane, a senior strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co., which oversees more than $70 billion in Tokyo. “If you seriously want to consolidate finances, there’s no other way but to raise economic growth.”

Abe’s party is set to win almost 70 seats in the upper house election, putting the LDP and its coalition partner on track to secure more than the 122 seats needed for a majority, according to the Nikkei poll. His party took control of the lower house after a landslide victory in December.


Upper house election

Heading into this Sunday's upper house election, the Abe administration's approval rating is 58% according to the latest Nikkei Shimbun poll and 59% according to the latest Yomiuri Shimbun poll. Interestingly his support is even higher among the young, such as those in their 20s. Old folks on fixed incomes are somewhat less enthusiastic, although he has 48% support among those over 70.
 
14,808.50

kevsta?

Again, my contention is while the speculators are chasing nickels and dimes on every hiccup in a squiggly line, investors who had confidence in Japan's economy just rode the Nikkei up, and have solid gains to show for it.

Just a thought.
 
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14,808.50

kevsta?

Again, my contention is while the speculators are chasing nickels and dimes on every hiccup in a squiggly line, investors who had confidence in Japan's economy just rode the Nikkei up, and have solid gains to show for it.

Just a thought.

Well to be fair to kevsta, he is trading with leverage, which is a whole different animal. Plus, unless I'm mistaken, this is his job. I would probably pay very close attention to each and every squiggle too in that situation. It's easy to see in hindsight that one could have made a killing betting on the Nikkei 6 or 8 months ago, but nobody knew that at the time. I didn't know it when I started this thread, although I thought it would be mildly positive.
 
I guess my main observation is how many "sell" or "short" squiggles, and "resistance levels" broken through, were there during this seemingly inexorable rise.

If kevsta profited from it I'd still like to know. As well as if he didn't.
 
Puppycow, you're right kevsta is doing it for real (although he also has some demo accounts too) and is doing it on leverage. It's not his sole source of income (her's said that he'd like it to be, but his other job simply will not go away).

Fast Eddie B, I think kevsta pulled out of his short positions and at the moment considers the Nikkei to be unpredictable/rigged, I think he's concentrating his energy on the FX markets at the moment.

I too find the lines, squiggles circles and so forth unconvincing but kevsta is putting his money where his mouth is so all power to him.
 
NO - it DOES NOT fit my link. I will continue to point out your fundamental misunderstanding as often as you repeat it. Here is the quote from the wiki link that you failed to consider ....



This is from your Friedman quote.



If you can't distinguish buying government issue bonds on the open market (conventional monetary policy) vs buying assets of commercial banks and private institutions (unconventional QE), then you are incapable of participating in a serious discussion. These are two distinct things.

It’s becoming clear that the real issue is you have a complete inability to filter the important elements of what you are reading.

Friedman wants to increase base money supply and shape yield curves so it’s not just yields on short bonds that drop. This is what Q.E. refers to. What paper the central bank needs to purchase to make it happen is a detail that can change from case to case but it’s still the same process. QE2, for example was entirely government long bonds.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/03/news/economy/fed_decision/index.htm

The central bank will buy $600 billion in long-term Treasuries over the next eight months, the Fed said Wednesday. The Fed also announced it will reinvest an additional $250 billion to $300 billion in Treasuries with the proceeds of its earlier investments.
QE3 does apparently include some commercial paper, how much and from who they wisely keep under wraps. This doesn’t change the fundamental nature of QE, which is to increase the money supply and reduce the yield of long term paper.
 
1) Nonsense. In the past 2 decades J has had two brief blips to 2% inflation and has averaged well under 0.5% inflation in that period.
And during that period Japanese stock performance has been poor, so what exactly is “nonsense” about low/zero inflation environments being bad for stocks and good for bonds?

The only reason Japanese fear inflation now is a direct result of the planned currency devaluation.

You seem to be confusing optimism that deflation may finally end with fear of inflation. No one is afraid of 2% - 3% inflation, in fact these are quite desirable levels. What we are seeing amid the volatility is that Japanese investors finally seem to be showing some signs of interest in owning Japanese companies.

You argument is predicated on the false premises the econ growth implies inflation, and that devaluing the currency while the government absorbs excess debt creates real growth. Neither is correct.

Perhaps you should pay attention to what I’m saying before you try to say what my premise is. Per the Friedman quote, Japan’s economic growth has been artificially limited by inadequate money supply for several decades. Removing artificial limitation on growth and economic activity creates new, real growth.

Major logical fallacy here.
"IF X then Y", does not make "Y is true therefore X" a true statement.


So when a scientist tests their theory, and gets a result that conforms to the predicted outcome it means nothing? ;) Perhaps a tutorial on deductive vs inductive logic is order.

Puzzling comment since the price-inflation impact is in domestically denominated holding, not foreign denominated ones.
Japanese multinationals trading on the Japanese stock market are not foreign denominated from the perspective of a Japanese investor. Their price is earnings dependant and these earnings are in turn impacted by currency value.
So stocks values are not based on earnings as you suggest, but often partially based on expectations of earnings. This is a major distinction.

I said investors base their decisions on what they expect earnings to be. Did you even read the text you were responding to?
 
Depending on which article you read it's either a response to fears of the market overheating and/or profit taking following recent gains. Apparently there are some elections on Sunday which might also have had an impact on the market.

Then again if could just have been "one of those things" or, given that it dropped more than 2% intraday (before recovering) it could have been a Hindenberg event Wooooooooooo !!!!!!11!!
 
Yeah, it settled down after that and ended up at 14,589.91 by the end of regular trading hours. Down about 1.5% since yesterday's close, which is not so unusual. It just seemed to me at the time that it might be another one of those big 800 or 1000 point loss days that we had recently for a few minutes there.
 
I'm sure that there some line on some graph somewhere that shows that it did exactly as predicted :rolleyes:
 
lulz, you lot worry too much.

I told you I was traveling for a bit, I havent even been looking again until right now, I have one position locked in at -120 and always full confidence that days of dribbling higher on weak volume can always be reversed in 20 minutes at any point.

kaboom ZH Japanese stocks crater 600 pts in minutes, 5 days of gains wiped in 30 minutes (that's called a "shift bar" by the way, remember? ;) )

and its also not like I ever said the Nikkei can only go down is it? what I said, was I dont have any confidence in rallies continuing on upwards properly, until we've had a good re-test lower first. I could be wrong, but it would be unusual. (market action, not me being wrong, thats not unusual)

I also very nearly just let the position run while I was away without locking in the loss, but that's not what disciplined traders do, because then it all goes wrong. even if you were actually right, and could have gotten away with it, if you ever try it, that's the time it goes wrong.
 
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