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Merged 2024 Election Thread

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dirtywick said:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/25/trump-critics-new-hampshire-win-00137726

Exit polls also showed four out of 10 people who cast a ballot for Haley in New Hampshire said they did so out of distaste for Trump. And 94 percent of Haley’s voters said they would be dissatisfied if Trump won the nomination.

i think trump is a pretty weak candidate this time around tbh. he's never been more boring or uninspired and he's buried in very real legal problems that are getting worse, and he's alienated many of his allies over the years. he won't stop talking about election fraud, he's stuck in 2016, and he's making less sense than he ever has. he's lost them a few election cycles now and the gop doesn't really have any accomplishments to hang it's hat on. most of what they're trying to ding biden on just isn't sticking either imo.
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The bolded needs some clarification though:

We do not know how many of NH Haley voters would have voted for, or have ever voted for, Trump. Its a semi-closed Primary system, any independently registered voter can vote in either primary (one or the other, not both). And since there appears to be no reason to vote in the Democratic primary some of the voters may have done so just to try and keep Trump away from the general election. And dissatisfied is not the same as saying, won't vote for.
 
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W.D.Clinger said:
Skeptic Ginger deserves a ton of credit for taking advantage of every opportunity to remind us that some say "Biden is too old".
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:fg:

Thank you. I'm doing my part since I'm unable to campaign door to door this year and I hate phone calling.

Seriously, I consider it to be important given we (myself, other Biden supporters and never-Trumpers) can't let a false narrative give us 4 more years of Trump. The news media gave him hours and hours of free TV coverage in 2016. At some point after Trump was elected and his true colors of incompetence and corruption began to surface some in the news media admitted they may have been wrong to give him free wall to wall coverage of every campaign rally.

One would think with that admission the mainstream media would be a little more cautious this time. Only this month have they begun pulling back, fact checking his rally speeches and refusing to cover the lies without acknowledging that's what they were. And Trump's senility which seems to have surprised the reporters is finally getting coverage.


It's important to check false narratives. I know a lot of people on this forum don't believe it is a false narrative. But it is and IMO the truth will begin shining through in the next few months.
 
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angrysoba said:
Well, I guess you have got us all talking about Biden being old and floating the question of dementia.

We literally weren't saying that until now, so you have put it on the agenda.
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No, that would be PitPat when he said "I don't think Biden has dementia, yet,' and I questioned him about the 'yet'.

Biden's alleged dementia/cognitive skills have been discussed ad nauseum in ISF especially by some of our "progressive" members who have, frankly, dissed him since he said he was running in 2019. I suggest you go read through the threads on the 2020 primaries.

angrysoba said:
I mean, I have no idea about whether he has dementia. He has always had something of a stutter, from what I understand, so some of his verbal gaffes and incoherence could be put down to that.
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Everyone has moments of incoherence when our stream of thought gets side-tracked or we change thought mid-stream. It's normal. It's the frequency and how we handle it that makes the difference. When Biden does it, he gets back on track. When Trump does it, he just continues rambling.

angrysoba said:
But I think it is undeniable that he has less energy than most of us would like.
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Of course he has less physical energy...he's 81, for Christ's sake. But that is not the topic; it's his cognitive abilities that are being questioning.

angrysoba said:
The evidence for him being perfectly fine, seems to be a twenty minute speech read from a teleprompter. I mean, that's low-hanging fruit.
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Actually, it's not low hanging fruit. Someone with dementia couldn't do that. They couldn't concentrate for 20 minutes; they'd lose track of what they were saying and become monotone or start using inflections inappropriately. Inflections reflect meaning and understanding just as much as words do.

Trump has repeatedly shown that he cannot stay on script/read from a teleprompter for that long without going off on some rant or saying something stupid.
 
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The economy is looking up, too. But you can bet the GOP, Haley, and Trump will continue to claim just how horrible it is and how it's the Dems' fault and only they can 'fix it':

After an extended period of gloom, Americans are starting to feel somewhat better about inflation and the economy — a trend that could sustain consumer spending, fuel economic growth and potentially affect voters’ decisions this fall. A measure of consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan, for example, has jumped in the past two months by the most since 1991.

There is growing optimism that the Fed is on track to deliver a rare “soft landing” — keeping borrowing rates high enough to cool growth, hiring and inflation yet not so much as to send the economy into a tailspin. Inflation touched a four-decade high in 2022 but has since edged steadily lower without the painful layoffs that most economists had thought would be necessary to slow the acceleration of prices.

The economy has repeatedly defied predictions that the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes would trigger a recession. Far from collapsing last year, the economy accelerated — expanding 2.5%, up from 1.9% in 2022. “Our expectation is for a soft landing, and it looks like things are moving that way,'' said Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank. .
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Stacyhs said:
The economy is looking up, too. But you can bet the GOP, Haley, and Trump will continue to claim just how horrible it is and how it's the Dems' fault and only they can 'fix it':
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The economy is doing better but most Americans are still suffering from the inflation of 2022 and 2023. This country needs a massive pay increase for the people to feel normal again.

My pay has gone up 16% since 2021, but I am very lucky.
 
Another bit of evidence that Trump doesn't give a damn about anything or anyone but himself. As the Senate works on a bipartisan deal for the border and Ukraine, Trump works to torpedo the deal in order to further his campaign.

A bipartisan Senate deal to pair border enforcement measures and Ukraine aid faced potential collapse Thursday as Senate Republicans grew increasingly wary of an election-year compromise that Donald Trump, the likely Republican presidential nominee, says is “meaningless.”

Senate negotiators have been striving for weeks to finish a carefully negotiated compromise on border and immigration policy that is meant to tamp down the number of migrants who come to the U.S. border with Mexico. But now that negotiations have dragged for weeks, election-year politics and demands from Trump are weighing it down.

At stake is a plan that both President Joe Biden and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell have worked on for months to broker in hopes of cajoling Congress to approve wartime aid for Ukraine. The U.S. has run out of money to supply Ukraine, potentially leaving the country stranded without robust supplies of ammunition and missiles to fend off Russia’s invasion.

Trump on Thursday ramped up his criticism of the potential compromise, writing in two lengthy posts on his social media platform that it would be “meaningless” in terms of border security and “another Gift to the Radical Left Democrats” as Biden runs for reelection.
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Anyone who supports this selfish, narcissistic, lying POS doesn't have two brain cells to rub together.
 
kookbreaker said:
Right now Trump is barely able to fill tiny venues for his rallies. He once filled 10,000 seat locations, now he can barely fill 700 seat venues. He's in late Spinal Tap mode.
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In that case, how do you explain the outrageous level of support he's showing in every poll?

While polls have been incorrect, as Angrysoba pointed out, those failed results fall within the margin of error, ~3%.

If nobody's attending his rallies and his support is flagging so badly, how on earth is he still commanding a tie or lead in polling?
 
The Atheist said:
In that case, how do you explain the outrageous level of support he's showing in every poll?

While polls have been incorrect, as Angrysoba pointed out, those failed results fall within the margin of error, ~3%.

If nobody's attending his rallies and his support is flagging so badly, how on earth is he still commanding a tie or lead in polling?
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Re-emergence of the silent majority?
 
The Atheist said:
In that case, how do you explain the outrageous level of support he's showing in every poll?

While polls have been incorrect, as Angrysoba pointed out, those failed results fall within the margin of error, ~3%.

If nobody's attending his rallies and his support is flagging so badly, how on earth is he still commanding a tie or lead in polling?
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I think the polls accurately gauge the mood of the country right now; but may not come November. The classic example of this is the 1992 election; a year out Bush Sr. was riding high in the polls, basking in the swift victory achieved in the first Persian Gulf War. He looked so unbeatable that all the Democratic heavyweights like Sam Nunn and Mario Cuomo decided to sit it out. Bush lost by over 200 electoral college votes to Bill Clinton.

Now that said I do think votes may be getting locked in already. Let's face it, is there anybody who hasn't made up their mind about Trump? His fans are his fans and his haters are his haters.
 
The Atheist said:
In that case, how do you explain the outrageous level of support he's showing in every poll?

While polls have been incorrect, as Angrysoba pointed out, those failed results fall within the margin of error, ~3%.

If nobody's attending his rallies and his support is flagging so badly, how on earth is he still commanding a tie or lead in polling?
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Because the media has been pandering to the GOP over big issues like the economy, etc. If anyone suggests the economy might be improving (as opposed to stating objective details) the GOP goes "REEEEEEEEE!!!!". People still have a poor mood about the economy even though by every objective measure Biden has been much better for the economy than Trump.

Don't misunderstand me: enthusiasm for Trump is waning does not automatically mean victory. But it does mean he cannot play the base with a new "Lock her up" chant. The old base is tired of it, and the new base isn't appearing.

Polls this far out just don't mean squat. in late 2015 Jeb Bush was the top polling Republican. Ted Cruz won the primary in Idaho.

Even close up polls don't mean much. I'm unconvinced of their error bars when every poll is somebody who answers the phone when an unknown number shows up....which pretty much excludes Millenials and Gen Z.
 
The Atheist said:
If nobody's attending his rallies and his support is flagging so badly, how on earth is he still commanding a tie or lead in polling?
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Wanting to go to somebody's "rally" and wanting to vote for that same person are two different things.
 
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