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Merged 2024 Election Thread

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Skeptic Ginger said:
I think that's absolutely true. But in the US said wealth is flowing quite a bit further down the hill than it has under most GOP administrations.
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Maybe that's true but are people actually feeling much better off financially ?

Here in the UK they're not because prices have risen. In the main wages have eventually caught up, or come close to doing so, but that doesn't really matter because people really remember the months when they were squeezed financially and the rest is just a return to the status quo. I'd lay odds that it's similar in the US.

At best the person in the street is no worse off than they were a few years ago whilst the 1%ers continue to enjoy an increasing percentage of national wealth.
 
Cain said:
So what if Trump wins? It's not like it'll be the end of the universe.
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No, but it's within the bounds of possibility it will be the end of this planet, and it's the only bit of the universe we inhabit, so probably worth preventing.
 
Brainster said:
What? My original point in responding to SG was that somehow she left 2016 out of the list of elections the pollsters got wrong. Given that they got it completely and utterly wrong, I was puzzled why she only mentioned 2018, 2020, and 2022.
ETA: And I don't think the pollsters recently have a good record. That said, I thought this from the article she cited was hilarious:



Seriously 2 percentage points off is a terrific poll result and nobody but an idiot would assume that since the polls showed him ahead by 1% that he was guaranteed a victory.
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Most of the time we are talking about margins of error that can make a big difference. What we seldom see are polls that are wildly off.

So the whole “polls don’t matter” argument doesn’t ring true for me.
 
Has anyone asked Trump how he plans to prevent the election being stolen again? I mean, if he's so sure it was stolen last time he must have a pretty good idea how it was done, and a long list of the precautions that need to be put into place to stop it happening again. Right?
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
My conclusion differs from yours and a few others in this thread because there are facts the news media is not reporting on. The news media's business model isn't to sell accurate information. Their business model is to sell controversy, sensation and scandal. And what's more sensational than Trump will be re-elected?

Underneath that sensational reporting are the facts.

Interviewing the person on the street.
Interview a bunch of people, maybe even ask leading questions. You'll easily find one or more that is unhappy with the economy.​
But the economy in real numbers has been improving for more than a year. By 10 more months from now it's unlikely Trump's economic doom and gloom campaign talking points will have much impact. He's a broken record. Maybe his die hard cult followers will still be convinced but that 35% in the middle will be rolling their eyes.

You can go down the list. Trump's claims there would be no new wars in the world if he were POTUS is an absurd claim. I'm not sure who believes that. We voted for Biden in 2020 to come clean up the mess Trump made of things. It won't be that hard to remind the voters of that.

It won't be that hard to remind voters about all the corruption under Trump including paying cronies during the COVID pandemic. All sorts of cronies took out loans based on lies about employees that never existed and many of them have not paid those 'loans' back.

It's not hard to put campaign ads out showing Trump bungling the COVID pandemic response. More than a million people in the US died of COVID or COVID related illnesses while Trump suggested it would go away in the Spring and a cure might be as simple of drinking bleach.

Trump and his family raked in millions in hotel and golf course profits from customers directed to his properties and from requiring secret service personnel stay at those properties to this day.


When I say there are 10 months before the election I'm trying to point out the foolishness of being misled by what people hear in today's news and by today's "polls". Campaigning against Trump and for Biden has not yet begun.
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What are these “facts” that aren’t being reported on? And your political spin does not count.
 
Pixel42 said:
Has anyone asked Trump how he plans to prevent the election being stolen again? I mean, if he's so sure it was stolen last time he must have a pretty good idea how it was done, and a long list of the precautions that need to be put into place to stop it happening again. Right?
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His plan is when he loses, to lie, pocket all the money and Run.
 
They want to predict 2024 elections by polling. Well, the best predictor we have is the 2020 election. Trump keeps telling that Joe Biden has led the country to ruin, yet we don't see the ruin. I think we can pretty much leave Joe out of the polling as any significant factor. Joe is boring, though he has started to wag his finger about democracy and autocrats.

So, going to Michigan results: Popular vote 2,804,040 Biden 2,649,852 Trump
I don't think Trump has gained any voters there.

Georgia: Popular vote 2,473,633 2,461,854
Very close, election hour and district tampering could lower Biden turnout. Tossup.

Arizona: Popular vote 1,672,143 1,661,686 Tossup

new Hampshire Popular vote 424,921 365,654
Percentage 52.71% Biden 45.36% Trump
Not going to change.

Nevada: Percentage Biden 50.06% Trump 47.67%


And so on. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election

It could come down to one state, though. Any of the above.
 
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Reich predicting Trump will get less of the independents in 2024. Likely true as the independents are pretty impatient, and Trump failed them 2016-2020. Joe has at least given us a stable economy. The independents do not listen to speeches, so neither Trump rambling or Joe stuttering/gaffing affects their vote.

As I noted earlier today, the mainstream media is falling over itself in seeming awe of Trump’s “powerful” campaign.

The truth is just the opposite. Last week, he won fewer than 3 percent of registered voters in Iowa.
To be sure, according to preliminary exit polls, around half of voters in today’s New Hampshire Republican primary identified themselves as Republicans, while 45 percent said they were independents (and 6 percent identified themselves as Democrats).

But that’s exactly the point. Even if Trump dominated Haley among Republicans, he did terribly among independents. Which portends problems for him in the general election.

Trump will of course be the Republican nominee. But he’s likely to be an extraordinarily weak candidate in the general election, given that almost half the entire U.S. electorate is independent, while only 25 percent are Republican (and 25 percent are Democrats).
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https://robertreich.substack.com/p/trumps-poor-showing-in-new-hampshire
 
Tero said:
Reich predicting Trump will get less of the independents in 2024. Likely true as the independents are pretty impatient, and Trump failed them 2016-2020. Joe has at least given us a stable economy. The independents do not listen to speeches, so neither Trump rambling or Joe stuttering/gaffing affects their vote.

https://robertreich.substack.com/p/trumps-poor-showing-in-new-hampshire
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A couple of key questions:

1) How independent are Independents ?

Are Independents really independent, or are they just "shy" Republicans/Democrats ?

An overwhelming majority of independents (81%) continue to “lean” toward either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party.
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https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/03/14/political-independents-who-they-are-what-they-think/
(poll is however more than 4 years old)

2) Will Independents be motivated to turn out and vote ?

They may not want to vote for President Trump but can they be persuaded to turn out to vote for President Biden ?

If they are generally merely content, rather than enthused then perhaps not.
 
Segnosaur said:
That's the thing that worries some of us.

Yes, the economy is normally a major factor in a president's re-election bid, but inflation has already been declining for a while, and job growth has been strong (even surpassing that of Trump pre-covid). Stock markets are growing, deficit is down. Biden SHOULD be seen as a savior of the economy, but his approval rating is still under water, and Trump has led in several polling matchups.
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It is very important. The most important factor for Republican voters. But those would hardly vote for Biden, no matter what.
Also it's been happening for some time .. and the polls show no shift in preferences. Basically Biden lost few % in his first year .. and since then nothing is happening, the same for Trump.
But at least Biden has something to sell.
 
The Don said:
A couple of key questions:

1) How independent are Independents ?

Are Independents really independent, or are they just "shy" Republicans/Democrats ?



https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/03/14/political-independents-who-they-are-what-they-think/
(poll is however more than 4 years old)

2) Will Independents be motivated to turn out and vote ?

They may not want to vote for President Trump but can they be persuaded to turn out to vote for President Biden ?

If they are generally merely content, rather than enthused then perhaps not.
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For purposes of this election, the key is how many Indpendents call themselves such because they are never Trumpers and how many are never-Biden. I would hope and pray to the FSM that the former outnumber the latter. The GOP has embraced Trumpism for utility reasons but it is obvious that a significant portion of the party is fully aware that Trump is a RINO and has/will destroy the party they grew up with. The reverse is not true with Biden. He is about as 'Democrat' as they come regardless of how progressive he is.

Then there are the Independents who were independent before Trump-Biden. I was one of them until Gore-Bush because I despised (and still despise) the two-party system. The difference is that now there are *very* clear cut choices because it is no longer a choice between somewhat liberal and somewhat conservative, it's a choice between 'bareable' and pure chaos/evil.

I would hope this means the Independents will go heavily to Biden, but I can't say I'm super confident. 2020 was shockingly close, it should have been a landslide for Biden.
 
The Don said:
A couple of key questions:

1) How independent are Independents ?
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This is especially relevant to New Hampshire because of a quirk in the primaries. Registered Democrats and registered Republicans can only vote in their party's primary, but independents can vote in either. As a result more voters are registered as I than D or R.
 
The Don said:
Maybe that's true but are people actually feeling much better off financially ?

Here in the UK they're not because prices have risen. In the main wages have eventually caught up, or come close to doing so, but that doesn't really matter because people really remember the months when they were squeezed financially and the rest is just a return to the status quo. I'd lay odds that it's similar in the US.

At best the person in the street is no worse off than they were a few years ago whilst the 1%ers continue to enjoy an increasing percentage of national wealth.
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How do you know said man in the street represented some larger population opinion?
 
A good part of lindependents are people that dislike politics altogether. They don't really like politicians. Often a single issue will make them show up and vote. Like abortion.

But it can also include some social conservatives that can't approve a leech like Trump.
 
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angrysoba said:
What are these “facts” that aren’t being reported on? And your political spin does not count.
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:rolleyes:

My 'political spin' as you call it is common sense to anyone actually reading it. It comes from my wide array of sources as a political junkie which I have been all the years I've been in this forum.

You certainly can't counter any of it except from an unreliable over reliance on polls.
 
Crazy Chainsaw said:
His plan is when he loses, to lie, pocket all the money and Run.
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I'm curious if Trump will stay in the country after he's convicted until it's obvious he's going to lose to Biden. My guess is he'll stay until it's clear his appeals are not going to keep him out of jail.

The possibilities: his in imaginary world he isn't going to jail, or, at some point he'll realize he is indeed going to jail and he'll flee the country. It's too early to speculate more than that.

:popcorn1
 
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