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Merged 2024 Election Thread

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70% in Iowa.

Ye gads.

Ye gads is right.
From NPR.


Houston we have a problem. :(

According to the Des Moines Register, the number of caucus goers (110,298) comprised 15% of Iowa's roughly 752,200 registered Republicans. Considering the temps were 2-3 degrees below zero F, it's likely these were hard core Republicans. Of that 15%, Trump received 51%, DeSantis 21% and Haley 19%. So nearly half of those caucus goers did not vote for Trump. Still, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that this whack job will be the nominee of the whack job party. :boggled:
 
According to the Des Moines Register, the number of caucus goers (110,298) comprised 15% of Iowa's roughly 752,200 registered Republicans. Considering the temps were 2-3 degrees below zero F, it's likely these were hard core Republicans. Of that 15%, Trump received 51%, DeSantis 21% and Haley 19%. So nearly half of those caucus goers did not vote for Trump. Still, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that this whack job will be the nominee of the whack job party. :boggled:

But does a hardcore republican vote for Trump or for an actual republican? Trump voters on the whole seem to be low-propensity voters. I saw a lot of younger people being interviewed by CNN during their coverage. I don't really see the case for: well if the weather was nice Haley and DeSantis would've done better.
 
This actually signalled the end for both Nikki and De Santis. They are both wasting money from this point on.
Not necessarily wasting money.

I think at this point it is almost impossible to stop Trump from (eventually) winning the primaries. But, there is a strong possibility that Trump might end up unable to participate in the general election (blocked by the 14th amendment, or incarcerated and cut lose by the republican leadership.) Whomever comes in second would have a case to make to become the nominee in that situation.
 
Its a "technically correct" claim, but its one that probably every single governor can claim if their term was of roughly same time period.

Michigan, 10.5 to 4.8%. New York, 9% to 5%, Florida, 10.8% to 4.9%.

ETA: which honestly, is better than most political boasts, especially by DJT.

Exactly. She became governor when the entire country was recovering from the 2007 crash under Obama. But, I'm sure Haley was responsible for SC doing the same thing every other state was doing. This is the US unemployment rate from 2011-2017:

 
One of the excuses people use to defend the electoral college (instead of using the popular vote to pick a president) is because it supposedly ensures smaller states do not get ignored.

Well, Biden certainly didn't ignore the farmers. As your reference showed, economically they are better off under the Democrats than under Trump and the republicans. Yet still rural states are willing and eager to vote republican again.

It's about racism. It's not about economy or freedom. As long as the Republicans keep up with the xenophobia and racism, the ruralites will vote for them.
 
Lucy Mangan's review of last night's ITV documentary about Trump makes some interesting points to ponder.

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-...w-it-makes-me-wonder-if-trumpers-have-a-point

Among poorer Chicagoans especially, already dealing with a national cost of living crisis, there is a growing feeling of deprivation and anger, especially as the city’s requests for help from the White House go unanswered.

Repeat that enough times in a country and, as one talking head puts it, you are sitting on a powder keg. No matter that Trump himself is a man who, according to Miles Taylor (the chief of staff when Donald J arrived) wanted to create his own Putin-esque mercenary force, and who appears to be making other preparations to run the country as much as a dictatorship as possible. People can get desperate enough to want to blow things up and see where the pieces land.

“Trump’s enduring domination over the Republican party despite the insurrection is the greatest riddle I have ever encountered,” says Moore early on. But there are moments when his tone suggests at least a possible partial solution to that riddle. He refers to the “Trump circus”, he reels in disbelief at a young, Black Trump voter, instead of fully engaging with her, and seems baffled as to how people can be taken in by him, rather than asking what they are responding to and why.

It all makes me want to ask – don’t you yourself, in some deep, buried part of your brain, understand the appeal? The longing to see what could happen? Isn’t it the same primeval urge that makes us want to stand on cliff edges? What if that fascination with extremes and flirtation with destruction was not tempered by being a citizen with much to lose? What if it was coupled with a far from irrational feeling that whatever does happen couldn’t be much worse for you and that there is a chance it may make things a bit better, at least in the short term? Do none of the Trumpers, none of the angry Chicagoans, have a point? If liberal orthodoxy and arrogance have played a part in making people feel unheard and disempowered, should programmes like Moore’s not try extra hard to avoid that themselves? No one wants to shorten the fuse on the powder keg.
 
So close, in fact nailing it on most points, but then just this one big miss:
Isn’t it the same primeval urge that makes us want to stand on cliff edges?
Nobody wants to be there. They've been dragged there, and they're aware of the fact that Biden-Democrats have spent their careers doing half of the dragging.
 
Nikki Haley is gaining traction in New Hampshire, The Hill news site reports.
GOP rivals former President Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are tied in New Hampshire, new polling shows, as the primary race heads into the Granite State. The survey from American Research Group Inc., released Tuesday, puts Trump and Haley at 40 percent each among the state’s likely Republican primary voters...Back in December, Trump was at 33 percent, while Haley scored 29 percent. Both candidates had gained support by the start of January, when the poll had Trump at 37 percent and Haley at 33 percent. The Hill news link

As Stacyhs posted yesterday, only 15% of Republicans came out in sub-zero weather to vote in the Iowa Caucus and trump got 51% of their votes. I think trump was expected to do better and I think he is definitely trending down. I sure hope so!
 
The Supreme Court has not banned ranked choice yet. We will have some third parties at the state level and independents.

Ranked choice is a bad system combining the worst aspects of STVand FPTP. Better to go with STV in multi-seat constituencies or straight proportional representation.
 
South Carolina's unemployment rate was 10.8% in January of 2011, when she took office as governor, and 4.4% in January 2017, when she left to become the US ambassador to the UN. You can quibble about the "economic powerhouse" bit, but she did inherit double-digit unemployment.

Yes, just like the rest of the country. And as with the rest of the country Obama* fixed it.

I know you don't like reality but it'd be nice for you to occasionally acknowledge it.

*Or to be precise, the government and civil service he lead.
 
Ramaswamy has dropped out and endorsed Trump. He's basically been running for Veep and the 2028 nomination all along anyway.
Trumpers might vote for him for veep if Trump tells them to . But for the top spot? Never.

Theres no VP primary. If Ramaswamy gets on Trumps ticket obviously Trumpers will vote for him for VP. If the eventual nominee is someone else besides Trump and Ramaswamy is their VP, Trump would endorse (or not) the POTUS candidate regardless of their VP.
 
Theres no VP primary. If Ramaswamy gets on Trumps ticket obviously Trumpers will vote for him for VP. If the eventual nominee is someone else besides Trump and Ramaswamy is their VP, Trump would endorse (or not) the POTUS candidate regardless of their VP.

In the increasingly unlikely event that someone else gets the R nomination, Hell will freeze over before Trump accepts the result, let alone endorses them. He'll just cry fraud and go on running.

Not that it would be a bad thing, of course.
 
Ranked choice is a bad system combining the worst aspects of STVand FPTP. Better to go with STV in multi-seat constituencies or straight proportional representation.

I've always like Approval Voting myself. Not as complicated as Ranked-Choice/STV, but still eliminates the whole "Voting for the Candidate you love helps the Candidate you hate get elected" problem.
 
In the increasingly unlikely event that someone else gets the R nomination, Hell will freeze over before Trump accepts the result, let alone endorses them. He'll just cry fraud and go on running.

Not that it would be a bad thing, of course.

Didn't this sort of thing happen routinely in the early 1800s? Multiple candidates from the same party. The party was not quite so important as the person back then.
 
I've always like Approval Voting myself. Not as complicated as Ranked-Choice/STV, but still eliminates the whole "Voting for the Candidate you love helps the Candidate you hate get elected" problem.

Ranked choice combines all the worst traits of FPTP while also adding needless complication to a ballot. For it to work it needs to be run in multi seat constituencies, ie be STV.

While the voting process for STV is somewhat complcated, in that you can give multiple preferences and have to use numbers, it is a mostly proportional system (it slightly favours small parties/independents), keeps local representation and has the big benefit of making the vote count exciting.
 
Pretty clear now that Trump will beat Biden, the only way to stop Trump is to ban him from the ballot.

Still utterly irrelevant to whether Trump should be disqualified from the ballot by the 14th Amendment, no matter how many times you try to pretend that that's why the issue is in play.
 
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