Merged 2024 Election Thread

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To poke back for just a moment to ChrisBFRPKY's "peace" argument, there's a particular line from ISW that sums it up fairly succinctly.



There's a notably longer analysis that backs that up, but I don't think that there's much cause to delve deeply into it at the second.

Of note when it comes to the "endless wars" bit, too -



Suffice it to say that phrases like "peace" and "endless wars" are being used wrongly by ChrisBFRPKY and there's identifiable cause for where much of that's coming from as a general matter. Control the premises being used and predictable assessments will generally follow, even if the premises are farcical on real examination.

Astute. Nicely done.

I agree. Nicely done, Aridas.
 
Astute. Nicely done.

I agree. Nicely done, Aridas.

Thank you both. I think that ISW should get a bit more of the credit, though. That piece was quite well written and argued, I think, and has a lot more points in it that are well worth acknowledgement.

Separately, to poke back to a small cause of previous hubbub -

Project 2025 partner floats repealing the 22nd Amendment and allowing Trump to serve a third term

Can't say that I'm surprised. I doubt just about anyone else here would be surprised, either. They're unlikely to manage to get it to happen, but that doesn't mean that they don't want to make it happen.
 
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Thank you both. I think that ISW should get a bit more of the credit, though. That piece was quite well written and argued, I think, and has a lot more points in it that are well worth acknowledgement.

Separately, to poke back to a small cause of previous hubbub -

Project 2025 partner floats repealing the 22nd Amendment and allowing Trump to serve a third term

Can't say that I'm surprised. I doubt just about anyone else here would be surprised, either. They're unlikely to manage to get it to happen, but that doesn't mean that they don't want to make it happen.

Why bother with restricting him to just a third term when they could go whole hog and declare him Dictator for Life or just King?
 
The reason he is screaming and yelling, and inciting violence against judges, prosecutors and the their staff and family is because he is angry... very, very angry. After years upon years of being able to avoid jail time for his many crimes, he is now on the railway tracks of justice, and the train of accountability is closing on him.

Make no mistake. If Americans are stupid enough to elect this guy president, he will NEVER leave the White House again. He will become Der Trumpenführer - he has only one end in mind, and that is to make himself King Donald I with the primary aim of making all the indictments against him go away. Once done, he will try to remain King Donald I, until he dies, at which point his son Prince Donald would be elevated to, and crowned, King Donald II.

Your Constitution won't protect you, nor will the courts... Der Trumpenführer will end both of them, because dictators have no use for either. Elect him to power this year, and it will be your last presidential election unless there is a bloody revolution and/or a civil war.
 
While that could be done, to what point would that be working towards, specifically, that would not be better dealt with in other existing threads? Individual examples are not truly what were in question.



As far as that point goes, that's already been addressed previously and you chose not respond. If you want to go further on that, I would request that you address the previous responses.

With that said, this response is completely wrong-headed if you were attempting to use it to address the point about Trump's coronavirus lies and disinformation. Whether Trump is responsible or not for the coronavirus pandemic is immaterial to how responsible he is for his words and actions in response. Trump spread a LOT of things that he demonstrably knew were false about COVID-19 throughout and plenty more that probably knew was false or untrustworthy. Given his reach and the nature of his following, that had very significant effects. He was probably the single largest driver of coronavirus misinformation. Going further than that -



38% of disinformation fueled by Trump? Trump constantly outright lying to the American people? That is NOT something that can be reasonably handwaved away with "the pandemic's not Trump's fault!"



If you're to be honest, the problem was far more with Trump and those who were blindly enabling him to act so badly without repercussion or accountability than the press. The press can be said to have acted as they did in fair part because Trump was not being held to account in any more direct way. That's going beyond the corporate angle and the Trump actively working to keep the spotlight on himself even if he had to do it by providing the press with negative stuff, of course.



Both-siderism is a tactic that benefits whichever side is worse. The benefit granted is proportional to how much worse one side is than the other. By trying to reduce the issue in question to the most superficial level "both candidates have lied" and ignoring the massive difference in quantity of, quality of, and harm done by said lies, you're seeking to provide massive benefits to the side that acts worse.




Should be, perhaps, under a particularly naive understanding of how Republican support is rooted.

To borrow an "it would be great if this wasn't as true as it is" bit of humor from Noel Casler - "How come everything the Republican Party stands for involves other people dying?"

Not completely true, of course, but... If Republicans were doing a good job, their governance probably wouldn't be ending up with higher rates of these things happening?



Because that's what is happening in general in Republican controlled states compared to Democrat governed states.

Broadly speaking, Republicans don't govern particularly well, with the rising MAGA wing of the party being even worse and often making a mockery of governance where they've come into power. The Republican Party gains power with policies that concentrate power and wealth into the hands of fewer and fewer people and leverage that for their influence, which has most of those listed things as side effects that society suffers. They gain broader support by other, non-policy based means. Whether Biden's done a good job or not with the economy, inflation, and the border is something of a red herring. He HAS done a good job with the economy, inflation, and the border! Republicans have also been OPENLY working to sabotage the US when it comes to all three of those things on top of that! Going further than that, if those were to become less effective for Republicans, they'd just try to change the narrative again to something else that they thought they could blame Biden and the Democrats for. Hence, your claim is deeply naive, to be kind.

In keeping within the topics of the 2024 election, I'll simply point out your claims in hilite of Biden's performance are simply ridiculous. You cannot gaslight the American public into believing Biden has done a good job. That tactic may work within a bandwagon of the like minded, but the reality is very different.

The current illegal immigrant invasion in the US:

You cannot erase the fact that Biden cancelled Trump's Executive Orders on the border during the first day(s) of his new Presidency. Biden ended construction of the border wall (as legally allowed), ended "Remain in Mexico" and reinstated "catch and release inside the US", just to name a few. This has obviously contributed to the illegal immigrant crisis we are currently experiencing in the US. Multi-millions of illegal immigrants have entered the US causing mass strain on public resources in various US cities. Chicago and New York have been hit particularly hard.

The Economy and Biden's current approval rating:

I realize last December there were many Media outlets pushing the narrative that "Bidenomics is working!" Yet the approval numbers do not agree with that assessment. Hence, the relative quiet lately on the subject. In fact I've read thru some of them, not all, and one of the major claims made was the increase in job numbers. And even Bloomberg reported in a recent article: "Has Bidenomics worked? It's too soon to say". About those rosy job numbers, here's one example of how Biden added more jobs in the current economy.:

https://www.ssa.gov/work/

It's called the "Ticket to Work Program" Which offered Social Security recipients and Social Security Disability recipients the ability to return to work without penalty of losing their benefits (for the latter). This strategy was pushed very hard with recipients receiving multiple contacts by phone encouraging them to allow the program to assist these individuals with returning to work.

That's not growing an economy, that's returning retired and disabled individuals back into the work force!


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/

According to fivethirtyeight, Biden has dipped below 40% approval rating. Why is this important? Well at 40% approval rating he has a 50/50 chance of winning the election, when that rating drops below 40% as it has currently at 39.1% approval, the chances at re-election drop dramatically.

And there's much more but my iced tea glass is running low and I have more important issues to tend.
 
In keeping within the topics of the 2024 election, I'll simply point out your claims in hilite of Biden's performance are simply ridiculous. You cannot gaslight the American public into believing Biden has done a good job. That tactic may work within a bandwagon of the like minded, but the reality is very different.

The current illegal immigrant invasion in the US:

You cannot erase the fact that Biden cancelled Trump's Executive Orders on the border during the first day(s) of his new Presidency. Biden ended construction of the border wall (as legally allowed), ended "Remain in Mexico" and reinstated "catch and release inside the US", just to name a few. This has obviously contributed to the illegal immigrant crisis we are currently experiencing in the US. Multi-millions of illegal immigrants have entered the US causing mass strain on public resources in various US cities. Chicago and New York have been hit particularly hard.

The Economy and Biden's current approval rating:

I realize last December there were many Media outlets pushing the narrative that "Bidenomics is working!" Yet the approval numbers do not agree with that assessment. Hence, the relative quiet lately on the subject. In fact I've read thru some of them, not all, and one of the major claims made was the increase in job numbers. And even Bloomberg reported in a recent article: "Has Bidenomics worked? It's too soon to say". About those rosy job numbers, here's one example of how Biden added more jobs in the current economy.:

https://www.ssa.gov/work/

It's called the "Ticket to Work Program" Which offered Social Security recipients and Social Security Disability recipients the ability to return to work without penalty of losing their benefits (for the latter). This strategy was pushed very hard with recipients receiving multiple contacts by phone encouraging them to allow the program to assist these individuals with returning to work.

That's not growing an economy, that's returning retired and disabled individuals back into the work force!


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/

According to fivethirtyeight, Biden has dipped below 40% approval rating. Why is this important? Well at 40% approval rating he has a 50/50 chance of winning the election, when that rating drops below 40% as it has currently at 39.1% approval, the chances at re-election drop dramatically.

And there's much more but my iced tea glass is running low and I have more important issues to tend.

MAGA-Fool-Aid.jpg
 
Just above the word "that", you can tell that that guy is actually young Donald himself.

He needs to use both hands to hold the straw.
 
In keeping within the topics of the 2024 election, I'll simply point out your claims in hilite of Biden's performance are simply ridiculous. You cannot gaslight the American public into believing Biden has done a good job. That tactic may work within a bandwagon of the like minded, but the reality is very different.

Mmm. I see. Meanwhile, you can try to gaslight the American public into believing that Biden's done both a bad job and a worse job than Trump would have?

The current illegal immigrant invasion in the US:

You cannot erase the fact that Biden cancelled Trump's Executive Orders on the border during the first day(s) of his new Presidency. Biden ended construction of the border wall (as legally allowed), ended "Remain in Mexico" and reinstated "catch and release inside the US", just to name a few. This has obviously contributed to the illegal immigrant crisis we are currently experiencing in the US. Multi-millions of illegal immigrants have entered the US causing mass strain on public resources in various US cities. Chicago and New York have been hit particularly hard.

This was largely addressed before and ways that it just doesn't work as you wish it did were pointed out and you chose not to reply. I'm not that interested in playing along with your attempted fringe reset. Feel free to go back and address the replies before, though, finally.

With that said, if we are to focus more directly on the Biden Administration, it has not been idle.

Biden at the Three-Year Mark: The Most Active Immigration Presidency Yet Is Mired in Border Crisis Narrative

Meanwhile, of course, the Republicans were given the chance to get everything they demanded, border policy-wise, and they then pointedly killed that because Trump thought that he would benefit. One doesn't even really need to touch all the rest when such brazen bad faith is shown. There's NO honest way to argue that the Republican party is better than the Democratic Party on Immigration matters at present. None. The Biden Administration has been working hard for the benefit of the US and the Republicans have been working to sabotage the US and use that and unreasonable, out of perspective crap to gaslight the American public. The sad part is that some are actually fooled.


The Economy and Biden's current approval rating:

I realize last December there were many Media outlets pushing the narrative that "Bidenomics is working!" Yet the approval numbers do not agree with that assessment. Hence, the relative quiet lately on the subject. In fact I've read thru some of them, not all, and one of the major claims made was the increase in job numbers. And even Bloomberg reported in a recent article: "Has Bidenomics worked? It's too soon to say". About those rosy job numbers, here's one example of how Biden added more jobs in the current economy.:

https://www.ssa.gov/work/

It's called the "Ticket to Work Program" Which offered Social Security recipients and Social Security Disability recipients the ability to return to work without penalty of losing their benefits (for the latter). This strategy was pushed very hard with recipients receiving multiple contacts by phone encouraging them to allow the program to assist these individuals with returning to work.

That's not growing an economy, that's returning retired and disabled individuals back into the work force!


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/

According to fivethirtyeight, Biden has dipped below 40% approval rating. Why is this important? Well at 40% approval rating he has a 50/50 chance of winning the election, when that rating drops below 40% as it has currently at 39.1% approval, the chances at re-election drop dramatically.

And there's much more but my iced tea glass is running low and I have more important issues to tend.

I read this part and my reaction pretty much ends up as... "Is this actually supposed to be a meaningful argument supporting your claim?" I'm just not really seeing it. None of this is an actual argument for Biden not having done well! It also doesn't even try to demonstrate how Republicans would somehow be better, which, admittedly, would be quite difficult given that they've been openly working to sabotage things. We literally went into the 2022 election with Republicans promising to hold the economy hostage for the sake of sabotaging the economy (and then did indeed try to do exactly that)! Yet you have the temerity to try to argue with crap like this?
 
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Nah... if it was Don Jr, the straw would up his nose, and the other end......
I meant Senior, the original, in his younger years, since the image doesn't show an old fat guy.

Strange thing the AI did in that image: bubbles around each straw, as if they're blowing not sucking... and another spot of bubbles bubbling up in the middle of the cauldron... and waves radiating out only from that bubble spot, not the rest...

Anyway, on one of the actual subjects here: the "Bidenomics" thing was indeed a wildly dumb thing for them to have ever even tried, but at least backing off from it was wiser than usual for Democrat tactical thinking. They normally can be counted on to double down on the most counterproductive thing they can find, but this time they actually adapted.

"Look how great the stock market and GDP are" was never going to work because, when those don't match normal people's experience, pointing them out just emphasizes how different the worlds of the rich and the non-rich are and how mentally stuck in rich-people-world you have to be to focus so much on things that just measure how much richer the rich are getting. "Look how many jobs there are" was never going to work with most people's experience of the job market not matching it, as shown by the post-headline revisions being consistently downward (meaning the high-number headlines had been wrong, with preliminary estimates repeatedly being too high), record job losses & layoffs & continued-unemployment claims all at the same time, and most of the new jobs being part-time & gig work which has no "benefits" and brings down average hours thus bringing down real incomes. "Look how much people are spending" was never going to work at the same time as record & rising personal debt levels of all kinds. "Most __ ever" was never going to work for stats that naturally rise (or sink) with population, because, with the population only having always increased so far, they just amount to "most recent __ ever".
 
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Retired and disabled people were able to find jobs? Doesn’t that point to very good employment numbers due to a booming economy?

The entire argument against the Biden economy is based on poll numbers and perception: Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago? My answer is unambiguously YES. I can’t imagine who would answer that question in any other way. But then I don’t watch Fox News.
 
Retired and disabled people were able to find jobs? Doesn’t that point to very good employment numbers due to a booming economy?

The entire argument against the Biden economy is based on poll numbers and perception: Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago? My answer is unambiguously YES. I can’t imagine who would answer that question in any other way. But then I don’t watch Fox News.

I'm not only better off than I was four years ago, I'm better off than I've ever been in my entire 65 years. Sure, my health could be better, but I'm sixty-five freaking years old, and it's not bad for my age. I can only see Trump wrecking things in mays we haven't even dreamed of yet, with zero chance of improvement.
 
Retired and disabled people were able to find jobs? Doesn’t that point to very good employment numbers due to a booming economy?

Pretty much. With that said, normally, the way to add to the work force quickly is to increase immigration. The Republican Party has been working to sabotage legal immigration as a whole, though, and the illegal immigration that so very many of them act to incentivize just isn't a pretty matter. Immigration, legal and illegal, tends to benefit the country, despite the scare tactic lies about crime that some swallow whole.

The economic impact of illegal immigrants in the United States is challenging to measure and politically contentious. Research shows that undocumented immigrants increase the size of the U.S. economy/contribute to economic growth, enhance the welfare of natives, contribute more in tax revenue than they collect, reduce American firms' incentives to offshore jobs and import foreign-produced goods, and benefit consumers by reducing the prices of goods and services.[1][2][3][4]

Economists estimate that legalization of the illegal immigrant population would increase the immigrants' earnings and consumption considerably, and increase U.S. gross domestic product.[5][6][7][8]

Sabotaging immigration is just one of the numerous ways that the Republican party sabotages the economy and tries to increase inflation while pretending that they're actually the side of people like ChrisBFRPKY.

The entire argument against the Biden economy is based on poll numbers and perception: Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago? My answer is unambiguously YES. I can’t imagine who would answer that question in any other way. But then I don’t watch Fox News.

I can imagine such people. I've worked with a number of them. The arguments that they back such up with aren't reasonable or objective, but that hardly matters to them so long as they have something confirmatory to grasp.

During Trump, the economy mostly ran smoothly after years of recovery under the Democratic Party. The Republican Party sought to claim that credit as their own as they used sugar rush measures and their usual propaganda spin tactics, then ultimately caused a huge crash again, with much of that safely attributable to their irresponsibility, not that they'll ever want to take responsibility for the harm that their actions cause. Republican propaganda is pretty much inevitably doom and gloom spin during Democratic Administrations, regardless of the numbers and sunshine and roses spin during Republican Administrations. If Trump presided over economy numbers like Biden has, much less in the larger context that Biden's numbers are in, the Republican party would be screaming about how awesome the economy is and how it's all to their credit, like always. Republican propaganda is far more about manipulating emotions than truth, after all.
 
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The reason he is screaming and yelling, and inciting violence against judges, prosecutors and the their staff and family is because he is angry... very, very angry. After years upon years of being able to avoid jail time for his many crimes, he is now on the railway tracks of justice, and the train of accountability is closing on him.

Make no mistake. If Americans are stupid enough to elect this guy president, he will NEVER leave the White House again. He will become Der Trumpenführer - he has only one end in mind, and that is to make himself King Donald I with the primary aim of making all the indictments against him go away. Once done, he will try to remain King Donald I, until he dies, at which point his son Prince Donald would be elevated to, and crowned, King Donald II.

Your Constitution won't protect you, nor will the courts... Der Trumpenführer will end both of them, because dictators have no use for either. Elect him to power this year, and it will be your last presidential election unless there is a bloody revolution and/or a civil war.

I don't agree. Trump's primary objective for being POTUS again is to pardon himself for any federal crimes he may be convicted for and to get any GOP governor to pardon him for any state crime convictions. His secondary objective is to grift as much money as he can to recoup financial losses from his civil lawsuits. After that, he'll spend the rest of his life cheating at golf and sexually harassing/abusing women.
 
I don't agree. Trump's primary objective for being POTUS again is to pardon himself for any federal crimes he may be convicted for and to get any GOP governor to pardon him for any state crime convictions. His secondary objective is to grift as much money as he can to recoup financial losses from his civil lawsuits. After that, he'll spend the rest of his life cheating at golf and sexually harassing/abusing women.

I largely agree. In fact the best thing for the country might be if he wins in 2024. Yes his sychophants will try to repeal the 22nd, but suddenly liberals will appreciate that it is hard to amend the Constitution.

Not rooting for it, and yes, there are a lot of idiots claiming this is the last election if Trump wins. They may have to apologize in 2028.
 
... the Biden Administration, it has not been idle.

Biden at the Three-Year Mark: The Most Active Immigration Presidency Yet Is Mired in Border Crisis Narrative

Meanwhile, of course, the Republicans were given the chance to get everything they demanded, border policy-wise, and they then pointedly killed that because Trump thought that he would benefit. One doesn't even really need to touch all the rest when such brazen bad faith is shown. There's NO honest way to argue that the Republican party is better than the Democratic Party on Immigration matters at present. None. The Biden Administration has been working hard for the benefit of the US and the Republicans have been working to sabotage the US and use that and unreasonable, out of perspective crap to gaslight the American public. The sad part is that some are actually fooled.
And even sadder is the GOP has been outright open about sabotaging the Democratic Presidency at least as far back as when McConnell said it on an open mic that his primary goal was to make Obama a one-term POTUS.

He failed of course but that hasn't stopped them from continuing such a self-serving goal. And with Trump, we can add in the mental illness which has made his goal top McConnell's and then some.


... None of this is an actual argument for Biden not having done well! It also doesn't even try to demonstrate how Republicans would somehow be better, which, admittedly, would be quite difficult given that they've been openly working to sabotage things. We literally went into the 2022 election with Republicans promising to hold the economy hostage for the sake of sabotaging the economy (and then did indeed try to do exactly that)! Yet you have the temerity to try to argue with crap like this?
It's been a losing strategy for almost 2 decades yet they just keep trying.



The reason he is screaming and yelling, and inciting violence against judges, prosecutors and the their staff and family is because he is angry... very, very angry. After years upon years of being able to avoid jail time for his many crimes, he is now on the railway tracks of justice, and the train of accountability is closing on him. ...
He's losing it. You can almost see the steam coming out of his ears.



I don't agree. Trump's primary objective for being POTUS again is to pardon himself for any federal crimes he may be convicted for and to get any GOP governor to pardon him for any state crime convictions.
[His secondary goal is to get even with any and everyone he perceives as having done him even the most slightest harm.] His secondary [third] objective is to grift as much money as he can to recoup financial losses from his civil lawsuits. [full stop]. After that, he'll spend the rest of his life cheating at golf and sexually harassing/abusing women.
ftfy

Toddler-Bunny Donny is fuming like Steamboat Willy. As for grifting it's a given, and without exception, no limits. It's just how he views the office of POTUS. It was a goldmine during his first term and it will be an even better source of loot if he gets back into office.
 
Mmm. I see. Meanwhile, you can try to gaslight the American public into believing that Biden's done both a bad job and a worse job than Trump would have?



This was largely addressed before and ways that it just doesn't work as you wish it did were pointed out and you chose not to reply. I'm not that interested in playing along with your attempted fringe reset. Feel free to go back and address the replies before, though, finally.

With that said, if we are to focus more directly on the Biden Administration, it has not been idle.

Biden at the Three-Year Mark: The Most Active Immigration Presidency Yet Is Mired in Border Crisis Narrative

Meanwhile, of course, the Republicans were given the chance to get everything they demanded, border policy-wise, and they then pointedly killed that because Trump thought that he would benefit. One doesn't even really need to touch all the rest when such brazen bad faith is shown. There's NO honest way to argue that the Republican party is better than the Democratic Party on Immigration matters at present. None. The Biden Administration has been working hard for the benefit of the US and the Republicans have been working to sabotage the US and use that and unreasonable, out of perspective crap to gaslight the American public. The sad part is that some are actually fooled.




I read this part and my reaction pretty much ends up as... "Is this actually supposed to be a meaningful argument supporting your claim?" I'm just not really seeing it. None of this is an actual argument for Biden not having done well! It also doesn't even try to demonstrate how Republicans would somehow be better, which, admittedly, would be quite difficult given that they've been openly working to sabotage things. We literally went into the 2022 election with Republicans promising to hold the economy hostage for the sake of sabotaging the economy (and then did indeed try to do exactly that)! Yet you have the temerity to try to argue with crap like this?

I can only point out the facts that will effect the 2024 election, whether you accept them or not makes no difference to me, but there they are.

I will say it is hilarious to read the attempt at placing blame on Republicans for the border or the economy. Democrats under Biden held the White House, The House of Representatives AND the Senate for the first two years of Biden's Presidency. Yeah, you're not going to make a valid argument of blaming Republicans.

However you wanna slice it, the fivethirtyeight polls agree with my opinion that Biden has not done well with the economy or the border. Most Americans see the US as going in the wrong direction. Those are the folks you must gaslight into your own special way of looking at things. It's not going to be an easy job to turn people away from the truth. Trust in the Media has plummeted. The Left Wing Media has been revealed for what it is. So emotional arguments from opinion are not going to be a big seller among those with access to the facts.

I will allow some credit in the economy as far as oil production. Last December oil production in the US finally returned and briefly surpassed the 2019 daily oil production levels we had during Trump's term. Yet unfortunately I cannot credit Biden for the increase in production, unless you count Biden responsible for the war in Ukraine, which was the cause of the increase due to record high pricing. Though the increase in oil production is absolutely a step in the right direction for reducing inflation. I don't think the Green energy groups will appreciate it as much as I do. There's always RFK for those folks.
 
Retired and disabled people were able to find jobs? Doesn’t that point to very good employment numbers due to a booming economy?

The entire argument against the Biden economy is based on poll numbers and perception: Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago? My answer is unambiguously YES. I can’t imagine who would answer that question in any other way. But then I don’t watch Fox News.

That's one way of looking at it. The economy is so strong there's room in the work force for those that normally wouldn't be working. Yet another way of looking at it is the economy is NOT doing well and by creating special programs that allow disabled individuals to return to the work force specifically to inflate job numbers has been seen as trying to prop up an inflated economy with magic job numbers. According to the polls, most Americans view it as the latter explanation due to consumer price rise.


I think it's wonderful that you're better off now than you were. Unfortunately, that's not true for most Americans. Don't blame me, I voted for Trump.
 
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