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Merged 2024 Election Thread

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So what is the difference between using and abusing the law? I agree with those contending #Resistance Liberalism seems like a rehash of Cold War Liberalism. There's a pretzeling illogic to using anti-democratic mechanisms to protect democracy. Trump has not been convicted of insurrection, or even charged. Manichean tribalists (like Johnny Karate here) resort to shady legal maneuvering based on a constitutional dead letter (and one that almost certainly won't be upheld by the current Supreme Court). Governments derive their legitimacy from the consent of the people. The demented twist is that if Trump were to win the election, then it would not be because he had the most votes but because of the Electoral College. The Electoral College... it can't even be described as "antiquated" because it was always stupid, as evidenced by the turd-polishing 12th Amendment.

So, yes, there is some both-sidising. Both sides want to resort to undemocratic means to promote supposedly democratic ends. Between five unelected Justices ruling Trump can't run vs. the Electoral College selecting him, which do you think is more acceptable to the public? The Justices on the Court are substantially more savvy and attuned to public sentiment than Democrats who inhale cable news.

There are other anti-democratic elements in the Constitution that are not rationally defensible: Candidates must be 35, natural-born citizens, and residents for 14 years. Silly stuff. A constitution is vital to upholding democracy when it comes to protecting minority rights (i.e., ensuring people are free and equal). Another defensible limitation on the vote of the people is making it so that a president cannot have more than two full terms. That takes a vote out of the hands of citizens, but it became an amendment because of broad buy-in from citizens (and supported by an informal tradition going back to the first president). It's also a relatively well-known provision, whereas Americans are not familiar with section 3 of the 14th Amendment, or even insurrectionism. A term limit on the president also fosters strong institutions as opposed to strong leaders.

I recall some NeverTrumper "life-long Republican" proudly saying that he would not vote for a convicted felon. All other things being equal, I'd be less inclined to vote for a felon, but I wouldn't necessarily say it's disqualifying. When McCain ran, Democrats said he was a bit too old. And he was! Polling shows Democrats are not thrilled about Biden's age, but they'd still vote for him over Trump. I'd vote for a tuxedo cat over Trump.

Imagine... the Court delays the trials so there's no conviction before the election, which allows Trump to narrowly win in the Electoral College. Alito and Thomas take cash from their billionaire benefactors and agree they should be replaced with thirty-year-olds, not that it matters because the Trump Wars will mean the 2028 Election needs to be called off. I hope to be placed in one of the nicer internment camps.

That's like saying Hitler was never convicted of the genocide of European Jewry. Just because you're not found guilty in a court of law doesn't mean you didn't do it.

There are too many serious crimes against the USA that T****y committed for which we have proof positive that we can just try to ignore them.
 
Cain has convinced me. The Constitution should be ignored because Cain has decreed it so and also because slavery. To not ignore the Constitution would be “shady legal maneuvering”. Airtight legal reasoning.
 
I'll get to three stooges in a moment, but some level setting.

You're not arguing at the jr high level? You sure?

Motivated reasoning is a helluva drug. We can agree that Trump tried to subvert the democratic process -- more than once. His first impeachment involved bribing a foreign power with taxpayer money to launch a phony investigation into a leading domestic rival (as it happens the one who would defeat him). Then there was the election denial and a refusal to certify the results. Can we use the 14th Amendment to bar him from running for these anti-democratic actions? No. But that's where we want to go so we have to invent a way to get there. Never mind that Trump has not even been charged with insurrection. Never mind that none of the 1,000+ people prosecuted for storming the Capitol have been charged either. What argument can we make?

Four people have been convicted of seditious conspiracy, the exact executable charge for those who attempt insurrection.

This is the level of argument we get when we allow those who are too enamored with their ability to philosophize to spin too deeply into stipulated lecturing. Your inability to deal with the realities of the situation are not mitigated by your confidence that you have special insight over the 'provincial Americans' that you then ironically cite as opinions being of primary importance. Your inability to pick proper insults doesn't either.

The talking point often goes that of course we can have judges and secretaries of state remove candidates without the hoopla of a trial or some high burden of proof. After all, people are not entitled to appear on the ballot, and, anyway, eligibility is assessed all the time. Judges can disqualify someone because they fail to meet residency requirements for a local election, or the age requirement for federal office, or because they committed an insurrection. One of these is not quite like the other two, and it's foolish to pretend otherwise. The precedent is so thin and the stakes are so high that it's going to require a lot more process -- and not simply being reviewed by the Supreme Court (which is something, it seems, the Court appreciates).

Polling indicates about 60% of the population agree Trump tried to steal the election. About 40% say he should not be allowed to run again. All other things being equal, I'd expect that second number to go down after the Court makes its ruling.

Hey, remember your, quite correct, argument that the legitimacy of the government derives from the consent of the governed? Why do only part of the governed consent matter, or said another way, why do you only imagine that the 'cost' of removing Trump from the ballot is a hit to consent? The lack of accountability for Trump and his cohort have already lead to a loss of legitimacy in the eyes of many. It does matter that another mechanism would fail to hold him to account.

The reason you're motivated to ignore that is because you know the side that would do that are the 'reasonable' ones. As always you're not arguing to the unreasonable side because you know they wouldn't listen to you.

[SNIP] The is the usual straw man that requires fingers in the ears, eyes tight shut, "lalala"ing. I have argued for a criminal trial because of identified problems, legal and moral, with the scheme to have judges disqualify Trump.

That's...not in conflict with what I wrote. Well, what I wrote there anyway. People think Trump should be held accountable for his crimes, and when you argue for the specific mechanism...what did you think I was saying you were arguing? Something other than legal and moral grounds? What?


I will cop to navel-gazing there (and elsewhere). I'm also going to skip past most of your blather.

I'm not going to skip most of yours. I'm replying after all.



This is almost interesting. In my view, the 14th Amendment would not necessarily require a conviction in criminal court to have a greater claim to legitimacy. If, in some alternative universe, the 14th had somehow been regularly used to disqualify people from office, then it would be more acceptable, and not just in my eyes but the public's (though not a dead letter, this bizarro 14th would seem to be relatively ineffectual). Might this special boy personally object to a 14th Amendment requiring conviction as anti-democratic? Maybe! But like a dumb age requirement, it would probably enjoy the benefit of a clear public understanding.

Well get back to me when you have the intellectual integrity to actually embrace your arguments.

The Congress was supposed to clarify the mechanisms of the 14th. That's the proper place for debate of it. The Court again taking up power when Congress has just abandoned it is a band-aid at best. With this Court? A dangerous opportunity to repeat Bush v Gore, that can lead to another hit to their legitimacy. (Which is approved of at about 18% right now since you seem to care about polls and legitimacy, but a fact you'll discount now that a 'stooge' brought it to your attention.)

EDIT: And apparently because it needs to be said, I'm not even arguing that Trump being removed from the ballot by the 14th provision as ruled by judges is the best way. But if we were going by what is written and how it has worked before, it's clearly correct to bar him using it. But I am not arguing that the Constitution is always correct or holy or whatever strawman Cain is assigning to everyone else. As far as I can tell, no one in this thread holds such worship of the Constitution.
 
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since it's unclear on how to initiate and enforce the 14th, it's also perhaps most appropriate that the sc rule on it.

but the only way they do that is to bring the case before them. which means someone must attempt to enforce it for it to be challenged and brought before them. so citizens, conservatives and independents with an interest in the primary, sued the state to enforce the law properly as a civil matter, which election are. it was ruled on and appealed and so on and so forth.

not really sure how else this is supposed to work. if you want someone to address the problem it must be brought up in some capacity
 
Interview on the Lawfare Podcast with Lawrence Lessig on his new book "How to Steal a Presidential Election", coauther Matthew Seligman.

There are still plenty of gaps left from the Electoral Count Reform Act that would allows the Election to be stolen, especially by State Legislators and especially when the Election is not a landslide.
 
since it's unclear on how to initiate and enforce the 14th, it's also perhaps most appropriate that the sc rule on it.

but the only way they do that is to bring the case before them. which means someone must attempt to enforce it for it to be challenged and brought before them. so citizens, conservatives and independents with an interest in the primary, sued the state to enforce the law properly as a civil matter, which election are. it was ruled on and appealed and so on and so forth.

not really sure how else this is supposed to work. if you want someone to address the problem it must be brought up in some capacity

Please open a ticket through the Service Center so it may be assigned to the correct team.
 
Well, I think that this is somewhat notable even if... *sigh*

Bad news for Biden as new poll finds him leading Trump
Large majorities say Trump isn't ethical, doesn't care about average Americans, and lacks the temperament to be president.


...I need to start off by telling you some key findings from a new Quinnipiac poll that was just released.

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump, 49-45

Biden’s net favorable rating is a couple points better than Trump’s

49 percent of Americans say Biden is ethical while 47 percent say he is not. Only 29 percent say Trump is ethical, while 68 percent say he is not.

A majority of Americans, 51 percent, say Biden “cares about average Americans,” while only 42 percent say the same of Trump; 57 percent say Trump does not care about average Americans.

49 percent say Biden “has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president,” compared to only 37 percent for Trump; 61 percent say Trump does not.

When asked if Trump’s statement that “if re-elected he would not protect NATO allies who do not meet their NATO spending targets and he would encourage Russia to do whatever they want against those NATO allies,” 71 percent said this was a bad idea; only 18 percent said it was a good idea.

So Biden is beating Trump; Biden is viewed more favorably than Trump; 68 percent of Americans say Trump is not ethical; 61 percent say Trump does not have the personality and temperament to serve effectively as president; nearly 60 percent say Trump doesn’t care about average Americans, and Trump’s ******* crazy statement that he would encourage Russia to attack NATO is quite properly seen as ******* crazy by nearly everyone. That’s a pretty terrible poll for Trump!

For clarity, the ... at the beginning is my addition as I cut in mid sentence to cut out some less immediately relevant stuff. Anyways, to continue on after a little skip -

That’s right: Every news company that has reported on the Quinnipiac poll thought it newsworthy that 67 percent of Americans say Biden is too old to be president and none of them thought it was newsworthy that 68 percent say Trump is unethical, or that 61 percent say Trump lacks the temperament to be president, or that 57 percent say he doesn’t care about regular people, or that by a margin of 71-18 Americans disagree with Trump’s let-Russia-do-whatever-it-wants platform.

<snip>

You shouldn’t pay much attention to polls. This Quinnipiac poll just isn’t very important. But the glaring pro-Trump and anti-Biden bias evident in media coverage of this poll is important to understand. And it’s important to keep in mind as you consume other news about the candidates. News companies that hype a bad poll number for Biden while completely ignoring bad findings for Trump contained in the very same poll simply aren’t shooting straight.

The bias might not be as easy to spot in other types of stories, but you can bet it’s there.
 
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It is quite unlikely, yes. Rather than in an election year, though, the more plausible long shot scenario is that if Democrats won the House and Senate in the election and somehow managed to pass a bill dealing with that between when the Congress was seated and before Trump was sworn in and Biden was able to sign it, that would be something to grasp onto to prevent Trump, specifically, from taking office. Trump's VP pick would almost certainly not be disqualified, though, depending on specifics, and Biden would not be remaining President, regardless. The SC would likely not allow Trump, specifically, to be removed even then, of course, but at least we would have a law addressing such for future elections. Provided that we would have real elections in the future, at least.



Eh. This quite sounds like a distinct misrepresentation of what's actually being pointed out on that topic and who is actually more terrified of right wing violence (it wasn't the Democrats that claimed that they didn't vote to confirm Biden because they were terrified by the death threats that they received). Also, the cause for right wing violence would be rather weak, to say the least. They still get their person in power, after all.

The problem is if Trump wins your likely to see an Insurrection from the left and that could lead to mass violence worse than 2020, because people actually believe with good cause the right is too courpt to save.
 
Anything less than full-throated support for Netanyahu will land members of congress, or would-be members, in AIPAC's crosshairs.

Interesting tactic in the face of massive support for a ceasefire. I hope it backfires spectacularly.
 
The problem is if Trump wins your likely to see an Insurrection from the left and that could lead to mass violence worse than 2020, because people actually believe with good cause the right is too courpt to save.

It's possible, I suppose. There would fairly certainly be mass peaceful protests, should Trump win. Should the protestors be dealt with harshly, thus escalating matters, mass violence could very well be the result. An actual insurrection is less likely.
 
This Israel-Gaza thing is sure taking time. It does not need to be a huge win, but Biden must get something out of this soon. Otherwise it will just be hanging there for more months. "Ineffective old man fiddles with Israel peace."
 
This Israel-Gaza thing is sure taking time. It does not need to be a huge win, but Biden must get something out of this soon. Otherwise it will just be hanging there for more months. "Ineffective old man fiddles with Israel peace."

A Saudi-Israel peace deal was going to be a massive win for Biden.

Now instead its all a massive liability.
 
On the Trump side of things - Trump's apparently trying to purge the Republican Party of everyone who's not super loyal to him.

I admit to mixed feelings about this. If it causes Trump to lose, that's a good thing. The damage such would be guaranteed to cause to the country in the process, though, is no cause for celebration.
 
Yeah, good plan Trump. This will guarantee a democrat house and senate. Impechment right in January 2025 if Trump wins? Or maybe just wait for Alito and Thomas to retire first? Speaker of the house then president by 2026.
 
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I just caught a few seconds of The FPDJT's victory speech for the primaries.

"...in the history of the world. Our cities are being overrun..."

and I turned it off. Does that guy ever have anything new to say? It used to be kind of amusing (yet scary). Now it's just boring.
 
Trump has not only had rather weak wins in all the primaries he's won, but he's also now lost his second one. For somebody who's trying to run as the "incumbent" and a "charismatic" cult leader, that's disastrously low support from his own party. It would be an indirect good sign for Biden, if not for the fact that that we have direct evidence, in the form of surveys that pit Biden & Trump against each other instead of against somebody else in their own party, and that's still pointing to Biden losing anyway (for that matter, they show that even more so now than before).
 
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