Stacyhs
Penultimate Amazing
I agree. It sure doesn't help to have those on the Left reinforcing the Right's rants about Biden being senile and groping children.
Merged 2024 Election Thread
- Thread starter The Atheist
- Start date
- Status
I agree. It sure doesn't help to have those on the Left reinforcing the Right's rants about Biden being senile and groping children.
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
The thing I don't get. Trump, personally, is not in any way a Conservative or Christian. He talks about it but it's mostly about I hate what you hate. He unites with hatred. Reagan at least had some sort of ethos. There is no meaning to Trump beyond Trump himself.
Norman Alexander
Penultimate Amazing
Dude!
Biden is hardly "leftist" by any stretch of the imagination. "Centre right" is much closer. Just that the right in the USA is so far right that it makes ANY other group look "leftish", even the conservative sensible ones left in the GOP.Venom
Philosopher
Dude!
Generally true on that last point, but whatever's left of the American left is more or less in line with "international standards" when it comes to domestic matters. And Biden does not need to be a leftist to do things that benefit the broad left. Just like you don't need to be a leftist to vote for Bernie.
In this political landscape do you really expect Bernie for instance to do labor rights and student loans much differently from Biden?
Ethan Thane Athen
Illuminator
- Joined
- Mar 1, 2007
- Messages
- 3,033
The UK media does a very poor job but that makes sense because it's owned by people who want to avoid all taxes and inheritance taxes in particular.
I can't speak for the EU but anecdotally they seem less obsessed about inheritance.
Possibly because their attitude to home ownership is completely different as well?
Good point. Very plausible.
Last edited:
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2006
- Messages
- 36,374
Once you believe a magical sky fairy runs the universe you'll believe anything.
The bloke held a bible upside down ffs, but his evangelical base does not give a damn. He gave them a ban on abortion, he supports Israel moving its government to Jerusalem and he caters to their love of 2A; evangelicals see him as a flawed man doing god's work, so no pussy-grabbing or adultery matters.
The one true thing he ever said was the bit about shooting someone in the face on 5th Avenue. They wouldn't give a damn.
Delvo
Дэлво Δε&#
Democrat optimists have been pointing out that the off-year & special elections ever since Republicans finally caught their parked abortion car have swung toward Democrats by a difference of usually around 10-15 points. But there are a couple of problems with using that to project Biden winning while the polls point toward a Biden loss.
One is that the 10-15-point swing in election results is not compared to polling; it's compared to historical trends in the same locations where those elections happened. Most commentary on the subject has misdescribed the latter as if it were the same as the former, while usually not actually pointing out any pre-election polling in those same places. The few localized polls/surveys that did cross my path actually did anticipate the swing in election results before the elections happened. That's not evidence that near-future elections will swing more the Democrats' way than polling shows; it's evidence that polling is already capturing the swing ahead of time. So the swing is already built in to Biden's polling results too, which means you can't add it in now and call that higher number a realistic prediction.
Secondly, there are another couple of ways to see that this swing is already built in to Biden's numbers and thus can't be added in again. Two other noteworthy results of the same polls & surveys that show him currently losing to Trump are: (1) that "Generic Democrat" beats Trump by a solid margin, and (2) that Biden's actual approval rate is well below his "I'll vote for him" rate. The first shows that this is not a party problem but a specifically-Biden problem and the party overall is doing well for now, and the second shows that just riding the Democrat wave of the moment is already helping him about as much as it can; it's why he's already in the 40s for "I'll vote for him" instead of the 30s where his "I actually approve of him" rate is.
The facts are quite clear: the key to a Democrat winning the Presidency is that Biden simply has to go. He's a uniquely awful excuse for a candidate in a party that's otherwise in a pretty strong position. And I just ran across an article a day or two ago that indicates that some of the people who put us in this situation (other high-level Democrat politicians, campaign managers, advisers, & such) are finally beginning to admit it among themselves. That's the one bit of good news in this: with them finally admitting how dire the situation is, even if only behind closed doors, maybe they'll find a way to get rid of the anchor around their party's neck. The problem is that it might be too late.
One is that the 10-15-point swing in election results is not compared to polling; it's compared to historical trends in the same locations where those elections happened. Most commentary on the subject has misdescribed the latter as if it were the same as the former, while usually not actually pointing out any pre-election polling in those same places. The few localized polls/surveys that did cross my path actually did anticipate the swing in election results before the elections happened. That's not evidence that near-future elections will swing more the Democrats' way than polling shows; it's evidence that polling is already capturing the swing ahead of time. So the swing is already built in to Biden's polling results too, which means you can't add it in now and call that higher number a realistic prediction.
Secondly, there are another couple of ways to see that this swing is already built in to Biden's numbers and thus can't be added in again. Two other noteworthy results of the same polls & surveys that show him currently losing to Trump are: (1) that "Generic Democrat" beats Trump by a solid margin, and (2) that Biden's actual approval rate is well below his "I'll vote for him" rate. The first shows that this is not a party problem but a specifically-Biden problem and the party overall is doing well for now, and the second shows that just riding the Democrat wave of the moment is already helping him about as much as it can; it's why he's already in the 40s for "I'll vote for him" instead of the 30s where his "I actually approve of him" rate is.
The facts are quite clear: the key to a Democrat winning the Presidency is that Biden simply has to go. He's a uniquely awful excuse for a candidate in a party that's otherwise in a pretty strong position. And I just ran across an article a day or two ago that indicates that some of the people who put us in this situation (other high-level Democrat politicians, campaign managers, advisers, & such) are finally beginning to admit it among themselves. That's the one bit of good news in this: with them finally admitting how dire the situation is, even if only behind closed doors, maybe they'll find a way to get rid of the anchor around their party's neck. The problem is that it might be too late.
Last edited:
Stacyhs
Penultimate Amazing
I agree with everything you wrote but with the one highlighted exception. Trump did not hold the Bible upside down. That's been debunked by several fact checking sites including Snopes, Politifact, and the NY Times.
Tero
Philosopher
Who do we want to replace Biden with? Harris is on the list. Er, Harris will disappear completely at the latest in 2029.
https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...tives-if-president-biden-exits-the-2024-race/
Oh look, AOC is over 35 just barely on election day! Pick her! Pick her!
Delvo
Дэлво Δε&#
It doesn't matter because literally any other Democrat but Biden and maybe Kamala is an improvement in our odds of not getting Orange Hitler again, but the most likely result if Biden were out is Gavin.
Stacyhs
Penultimate Amazing
Literally any other Democrat? Bob Menendez? OAC? Rashida Tlaib? Joe Manchin?
Brainster
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
- May 26, 2006
- Messages
- 21,949
Logistically it would be a nightmare. The filing deadlines for South Carolina and Nevada have already passed. The three candidates on the ballot in SC will be Biden, Williamson and Phillips; Nevada has a few gadflies mixed in with Biden and Williamson but Phillips missed the deadline.
ETA: And Kamala is the elephant in the room; how does Biden drop out without endorsing her?
Last edited:
Tero
Philosopher
On the topic of "Biden should quit" we could look at 1968. Old days. When the Democratic convention was, there was no candidate by Aug 1968. Then we voted in November.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Democratic_National_Convention
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_United_States_presidential_election
For some reason this sort of thing does nor happen anymore.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Democratic_National_Convention
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_United_States_presidential_election
For some reason this sort of thing does nor happen anymore.
Last edited:
Brainster
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
- May 26, 2006
- Messages
- 21,949
After 1968, the Democrats changed things around so that the primaries essentially determined the nominee of the party, rather than the party bosses (which had been the case previously).
Around 2000 or so they came up with the idea of superdelegates (i.e., party bosses) with the hope that this would temper the base's tendency to select candidates who were too liberal to win, but this proved unpopular and so now the superdelegates are sidelined unless the nomination goes to a second ballot.
Last edited:
Venom
Philosopher
I'm ready to vote Hunter Biden if that's what it takes.
shemp
a flimsy character...perfidious and despised
I'm not thrilled about Biden, but the choice between Biden and Trump is like the choice between being slapped on the wrist or being impaled on a red-hot poker while maggots eat you alive from the inside out while you're forced to watch Gigli on an endless loop.
Gulliver Foyle
Philosopher
That particular band aid isn't going to work, it's too small of a tax on too few. What need's to happen is a maaive increase on corporation and capital gains taxes, a proper wealth tax on holdings over $1m, a large increase on inheritance taxes more along the lines of 33% on everything over $500,000k on each child inheriting with smaller allowances for further out relatives, and finally increase the taxes on incomes not gained from wages* or profis from small businesses.
*I consider boardroom level wages and bonii to be not actually wage earnings, as they are so disproportionate to the value of work put in.
Gulliver Foyle
Philosopher
In common with the UK and US the left has abandoned its core constituency, the working class, in a failed effort to woo traditionally right wing voters. This has allowed the far right* the opportunity to pretend to be the friends of the working class while also demonising powerless minority groups.
*And here I do include the republicans and tories. They've become lynchpins of the far right over the last twenty years.
Irony? It's not a word you'll hear on the BBC or find in Merriam-Webster
- Status