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Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 3

Latest election results from AP, from total vote: Trump: 50%, Harris 48.3%
An equal number of voters (50%) voted against Trump than those who voted for him.
This was *not* the mandate or landslide that Trumpists have declared it to be.
Treating it as such is going to escalate the already chaotic transition to complete insanity.
The question is, will Trump succeed in rolling over all the GOPers who foolishly voted for him, thereby endangering their own
political future.
 
TragicMonkey said:
Some of his tattoos are raising eyebrows as well. Those crosses: are they showing his allegiance to the country of Georgia, a foreign power? Or are they the white supremacy/Christian nationalist symbol they usually are when not in the context of that nation? Either one seems inappropriate for a US defence secretary.
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Don’t worry. They are just white supremacist symbols.

Tulsi Gabbard is going to be the resident ally of Russia, which is against Georgia. Fortunately she is only the head of intelligence.
 
stanfr said:
Latest election results from AP, from total vote: Trump: 50%, Harris 48.3%
An equal number of voters (50%) voted against Trump than those who voted for him.
This was *not* the mandate or landslide that Trumpists have declared it to be.
Treating it as such is going to escalate the already chaotic transition to complete insanity.
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Except victory isn't decided by popular vote. Dump won every single swing state. In my eyes, that's a landslide victory, given what we're actually counting is states.

stanfr said:
The question is, will Trump succeed in rolling over all the GOPers who foolishly voted for him, thereby endangering their own
political future.
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Yup. And just like last time, they will worship him as Best President Ever! no matter what he does to them.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
Except victory isn't decided by popular vote. Dump won every single swing state. In my eyes, that's a landslide victory, given what we're actually counting is states.
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I would just like to interject one rather wonkish point. Because the results of the swing states are highly correlated, it was very likely that one candidate or the other would win every swing state. Both Nate Silver's model and the Economist's predicted that the most likely (modal) outcome of the race would be Trump winning all the swing, and the second most likely outcome would be Harris winning all of them. Together, according to these models, there was about a 50% chance that one candidate or the other would win all the swing states. To put it another way, it was likely that if one candidate won one of the swing states, he or she would win all of them.
 
I keep seeing the hard core cult people behind Trump at rallies. Half had cowboy hats, half had Trump hats. There is probably no way we can get them to change in two years. But....there is hope that they will lose interest in poltics altogether. When the prices do not come down. None of these people have a clue about inflation and economics.

www.threads.net

Tero Gervais (@tero55gervais) on Threads

Same thing for taxes for billionaires.
www.threads.net www.threads.net
 
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Tero said:
I keep seeing the hard core cult people behind Trump at rallies. Half had cowboy hats, half had Trump hats. There is probably no way we can get them to change in two years. But....there is hope that they will lose interest in poltics altogether. When the prices do not come down. None of these people have a clue about inflation and economics.

www.threads.net

Tero Gervais (@tero55gervais) on Threads

Same thing for taxes for billionaires.
www.threads.net www.threads.net
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But the prices may come down because those corporations that support Trump may decide to stop price-gouging to make Trump look good.
 
thaiboxerken said:
But the prices may come down because those corporations that support Trump may decide to stop price-gouging to make Trump look good.
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I doubt it. Most corporations that support Trump do so because they think he'll result in them having more money. They're not going to give up on money to have Trump, that would be backwards.
 
Well, Trump's announced economic plan is to put a 60% tariff on much of the stuff we buy and then deport most of our cheap labor. I'm no economist, so I shouldn't speculate on which way those things might drive prices, but . . .
 
dasmiller said:
Well, Trump's announced economic plan is to put a 60% tariff on much of the stuff we buy and then deport most of our cheap labor. I'm no economist, so I shouldn't speculate on which way those things might drive prices, but . . .
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I bet he doesn't put a tariff on his Chinese watches, guitars and sneakers.
 
It seems the election was a statistical dead heat.
Popular vote by 1.5% and 115, 000 different votes in the marginal states would have delivered the White house to Harris.
Landslide is best described as a nonsense.
The polls were dead right, Trump always favored on Ladbrokes but only the convention bump placed Harris ahead for a period.

Sunlight is the best disinfectant.

The real message is love Trump/America for a triumph for the fact of a vote.
America remains the real thing.
 
Grizzly Bear said:
Like I said before, there remains a culture of people that think this is an anime world where you can identify as whatever you want, rather than going by the science. If you want to believe in that sort of thing, then be my guest and move on. There are genetic disorders that can cause people to have both features of male and female, but that's about the only thing



Everything I pointed out was commentary on you saying "As for the 180 degree change. The utter hysteria over the threat of trans people is darkly amusing. The North Carolina law requiring people to use the bathrooms of their birth sex is hilarious."

At this point it's debatable whether this conversation is even worth putting in the effort. Your argument obviously doesn't care about the issue of biological males skewing the results in women's sports.... It obviously doesn't care about women feeling uncomfortable having biological males watching them dress in locker rooms... It obviously doesn't really consider the ramifications of schools thinking they know better than parents in pushing gender affirmation and sex change procedures withouth notifying them or gaining consent. Do you even realize you're calling that "hysteria"? Or is it that you would rather just call people articulating this issue hysterical and not bother with the minutia? The latter is nothing more than an escape from reality... but if that's how you want to roll then I won't devote additional time trying to convince you to change your thinking if you don't want to hear it.

You call it a strawman argument. I call it giving you context to my position so you know I'm not simply saying "transvpeople bad".



As for this bit. If you listened to Trumps' remarks, you'd find that he talks about most of the same issues about biological men in women's sports, and pushing minors to undergo hormone treatments and sex transitions - as I mentioned already - without parental consent. Among other things. But to be fair to you, it would be helpful if you specified what comments exemplify your position, because if it's something significant maybe we'd find common ground.

"The Democrats do talk about policies by the way. How much did Trump talk about policies during this election? Less I would argue."
Have you actually listened to the interviews that Harris participated in?


We call that a genetic disorder. Sometimes people are born with those. Completely fine, but that's a different issue than pushing these woke misogynistic policies that force women to participate in competitive sports with biological men, or pushing this sex change stuff on elementary school kids without their parent's knowledge... or as happened in one case, sending child services out to remove parent's custody for not agreeing to gender affirming care when it was brought to their attention. It's pretty easy to dismiss things when it doesn't affect you personally... that's a given.

You're basically arguing that trans people are going to be treated like dirt on an oversimplified point. Nuance be damned.
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I have greatly enjoyed your frothing at the mouth. It is very funny.

"Like I said before, there remains a culture of people that think this is an anime world where you can identify as whatever you want, rather than going by the science. If you want to believe in that sort of thing, then be my guest and move on."

Thank you the above is a perfect strawman. If you want to fantasize about what I believe and what is the actual Science go ahead. If you want to believe the above nonsense go ahead.

"Everything I pointed out was commentary on you saying "As for the 180 degree change. The utter hysteria over the threat of trans people is darkly amusing. The North Carolina law requiring people to use the bathrooms of their birth sex is hilarious."

At this point it's debatable whether this conversation is even worth putting in the effort. Your argument obviously doesn't care about the issue of biological males skewing the results in women's sports.... It obviously doesn't care about women feeling uncomfortable having biological males watching them dress in locker rooms... It obviously doesn't really consider the ramifications of schools thinking they know better than parents in pushing gender affirmation and sex change procedures withouth notifying them or gaining consent. Do you even realize you're calling that "hysteria"? Or is it that you would rather just call people articulating this issue hysterical and not bother with the minutia? The latter is nothing more than an escape from reality... but if that's how you want to roll then I won't devote additional time trying to convince you to change your thinking if you don't want to hear it."

I enjoy a good whine. May I point out that my comment about the really stupid North Carolina bathroom law mentioned the rather pertinent fact that requiring Transmen, with big muscles, hairy chests and beards going into Women's washrooms isn't exactly going to make Women using those washrooms feel men haven't invaded their space. And what about Transwomen who have transitioned complete with the surgery, isn't them using Men's rather than Women's washrooms a bit silly. as me not carrying about Women feeling uncomfortable having biological Men using washrooms. Whatever. You obviously do not care about the comfort of Biological Women having Transmen in their washrooms etc. But then again the comfort of Trans people is far from your concerns.

Virtually everyone of the Transwomen I know do not like to use Men's washrooms. Do you know why? Well because they feel, quite rightly, that their chances of being attacked if they do are very high. And again does it really make any sense for Transwomen, especially those who have the surgery use Men's washrooms.

The rest of your comment is a familiar list of scare stories. I wonder do you even think about those parents who support gendr Affirmation care for their children. I guess their just deluded. Perhaps their children should be taken away.(Snark) But then since I know far too many horror stories of parents whose response to their children possibly being Trans has been coercive brutal "treatment" and beatings. If a child told me that if his parents found out he or she might be Trans that they would be beaten etc., I would be careful about telling the parents.

Speaking about escape from reality, a way of thinking that characterizes, much of the nonsense about Trans issues. That Trans people exist, have existed and will continue to exist is reality. If you want to believe otherwise good for you.

As for sports. What do you think about Transmen competing, which some do, in Men's sports. Should they compete in Women's sports? Well the issue is not anywhere near has clearcut as you have claimed.

"As for this bit. If you listened to Trumps' remarks, you'd find that he talks about most of the same issues about biological men in women's sports, and pushing minors to undergo hormone treatments and sex transitions - as I mentioned already - without parental consent. Among other things. But to be fair to you, it would be helpful if you specified what comments exemplify your position, because if it's something significant maybe we'd find common ground."

I did listen to Trump's off the wall hysteria. His foaming at the mouth that the Trans thing was a leftist conspiracy to undermine whatever, his nonsense about it being new etc., all bellowed in an hysterical creed that reminded me of an out to lunch Evangelical Preacher. As for pushing minors to have hormone therapy and sex transitions - again highly risible. That so many are pushing that hot button is hardly surprising. But again no doubt it is part of the great Leftist Conspiracy to undermine the family. An old trope that is centuries old by now. And just how much of this hormone treatments etc., is done without parental consent? I doubt very much. Oh I doubt much if any surgery is done before the Trans people involved are legal adults.

"
"The Democrats do talk about policies by the way. How much did Trump talk about policies during this election? Less I would argue."
Have you actually listened to the interviews that Harris participated in?"

Yes I did and Trump's whole presentation reminded me of unhinged, along with soupcons of lies and nonsense. If I hear one more time Trump's lies about the 2020 election I will conclude the man is utterly deluded rather than a snake oil salesman.

"We call that a genetic disorder. Sometimes people are born with those. Completely fine, but that's a different issue than pushing these woke misogynistic policies that force women to participate in competitive sports with biological men, or pushing this sex change stuff on elementary school kids without their parent's knowledge... or as happened in one case, sending child services out to remove parent's custody for not agreeing to gender affirming care when it was brought to their attention. It's pretty easy to dismiss things when it doesn't affect you personally... that's a given."

This "genetic disorder" means that they have male chromosomes, further they generally are bigger and stronger than chromosomal Women. So are they Men and should they be allowed to compete in Women's sports?

You seem to have no trouble having Trans people forced to use particular washrooms. And your fantasy about about "pushing" sex changes etc., is very funny. As for the case you referred to I know nothing about it so I have no opinion on the matter. But I do know case after case, from my friends about people's whose lives were made a hell by those who could not accept them Transitioning. The last line about it's easy to dismiss things when it doesn't affect you is also funny, given that that you obviously don't think much about what Trans people go through and how hard it can be, largely from those who try to make their lives miserable. But then it doesn't affect you personally... that's a given.

"You're basically arguing that trans people are going to be treated like dirt on an oversimplified point. Nuance be damned."

Well hopefully that won't happen to Trans people, although their are many who want it so. As for nuance given this comment:

"Like I said before, there remains a culture of people that think this is an anime world where you can identify as whatever you want, rather than going by the science. If you want to believe in that sort of thing, then be my guest and move on."

This is stunningly extremely simple. So much for nuance. It is more complicated than that.
 
Tero said:
Voter suppression movie. Greg palast investigates.
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I started a thread on this a few weeks back, and came close to being called a CTer. 😛
I agree the bulk numbers aren't there but the MAGAts and Project 2025 were VERY busy last year, and the confluence of all those efforts is still troubling.
Perhaps there is better accounting now but your link is unavailable to me
 
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