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2012 - Predicting the Future

2012 is almost over. How'd you do? :D



kevsta said:
That housing is still overvalued in many places - http://www.economist.com/node/21540231
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Sales of existing home highest in three years
Housing Starts : 23% Increase In 2012



Europe will not hold together "as-is" - that which is not sustainable, will not be sustained. Greece & Portugal cannot remain in the current system as-is. There will be real defaults, as there is a €4-6 Trillion hole in the European balance sheet.
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Greece & Portugal still in the euro.


China - the bubble bursting is now well underway - as predicted by Hugh Hendry back in 2009
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International Stock Indexes
Shanghai Composite is up 0.6% ytd (basically unchanged)
Hang Seng is up 22% YTD.



Hendry is also poised right on the threshold of massive profits from bets taken two years ago that Europe was going back into recession, and will start seeing payment as soon as the ECB's interest rates go sub 1%, I think that is coming this year.
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Doesn't appear he hit the jackpot this year.



Japan - this will be the year it all comes unraveled for Japan, as predicted by Kyle Bass, who this year has been paid handsomely from bets he was making on Greece defaulting in 2008/9, whilst the Bernank was trumpeting his "green shoots of recovery" nonsense.
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Nikkei is up 15% ytd.




Australia - this is the year Australian housing finally catches up with gravity.

Canada - same thing which will be the catalyst that exposes the much denied weaknesses in the Canadian banking system

UK - being from the UK originally I can comment in more depth on this one than most countries. In 2012 I think things will start to get really nasty in the UK, with approaching 1000% debt to GDP now
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Haven't heard about any major economic crises in any of these countries.

And for the wildcard, I'm going to go with a major energy shock this year, whether triggered by problems in the Middle East - Iran (which I have bet on via Intrade btw) or by Chris Martenson's analysis of exponential population and credit growth bumping up against finite EROEI with liquid fuels - IMO this lecture is the most important information I saw in 2011. (ignore the fact its at a Gold & silver conference, he doesn't mention either one once)
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Oil prices are down ytd
Haven't heard about any major energy shocks.



So given global printing like never before, some specific price predictions..

Gold - on the low side, if we go with the support/resistance levels of $1705 where it was before the negative lease rate shenanigins and end of year liquidations set in, and add just the average yearly gains this decade of 17% that gives us $1994.
On the high side if we go peak to peak from 2011's peak - $1910 and assume the same peak to peak rise as this year (34%) = $2550

so I predict we will see gold trade between $2000-$2500 in 2012.
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Gold spot is 1,655.60.

Silver Silver's long term fundamentals are extremely strong, but it is such a tiny market, and so easily manipulated and held down by interests that hold more in shorts than many years mining could produce, it is more or less impossible to get accurate price discovery, but I will stand by a previous prediction here that we will see $75 in 2012.
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Silver $29.97

Oil currently trading at $100 per barrel as a baseline, with potential energy shocks and massive printing, we have got to take out the previous $147 high, possibly as high as $200.
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You gotta specify which oil you mean these days as prices for WTI and Brent have been decoupled.
Brent is $109, WTI $89. Neither one got very close to $147 this year even at the 52-week high. I think Brent's high was shy of $130.

A few things from my contra indicators that I think wont be happening.

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S&P 500 is up 13% YTD, not too far off.
DJIA is up 7.5% YTD.

  • Gartman / Roubini's Gold bubble bursting

so there we go, gold, silver, oil, EURUSD and a whole lot more predictions besides. hopefully that's specific enough for you - lets face it I only have to get a single solitary one right to outperform Bernanke ;) lets see...



Happy New Year to all.
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Happy Holidays! :D
 
Well, the words, "fiscal cliff" were mentioned in post #13. :p

You can poke fun at the crystal ball gazers if you like but all that's really happened is that the can has been kicked a little farther down the road. I suspect that the fun will begin in earnest when social security has to start cashing in its bonds but anything could trigger off the great reset before then.
 
lol, edited because I don't even know what day it is. coming back to this.
 
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Wow, that certainly was embarrassing. That's one thing about the goldbugs - they're always so comically wrong.

:dl:
 
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your figure is the same as the YOY 8 city aggregate on my document, maybe that's what the media are reporting?
 
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