2012 Electoral College Predictions

mikedenk

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It's far enough out from the election that predictions are a combination of sage wisdom and lucky guess. There are plenty of places with interactive electoral maps; this is the site I used: 270 to Win

For bragging rights, you can place your predictions here. Winner is the person whose prediction most closely matches the actual outcome, obviously. For tie-breakers, also predict:
1st) The percentage of the total vote captured by both Obama and Romney. The winner is the person with the lowest combined difference between his prediction and the actual result. For example: John Doe predicts Romney 51.2, Obama 47.9. The actual results are Obama 52.4, Romney 45.9. John's total is 5.3 + 4.5 = 9.8
2nd) The state with the narrowest margin of victory (# of votes, not %).
3rd) Total votes for the top third-party candidate. (Identity of candidate encouraged but not required).

My prediction: Romney 284 Obama 254
My Electoral Map

Battleground States: Nevada - Romney; Colorado - Romney; Iowa - Romney; Wisconsin - Romney; Michigan - Obama; Ohio - Romney; Florida - Romney; North Carolina - Romney; Virginia - Obama; Pennsylvania - Obama; New Hampshire - Obama

Tiebreakers:
1st) Romney 50.4 Obama 48.2
2nd) Wisconsin :D
3rd) 792,500 (Gary Johnson, Libertarian)

Disclaimer: I realize that some predict that Romney won't make it through the convention once his tax returns reveal he has spent years embezzling money from orphans or something. You could predict that or just play along to humor the rubes I suppose.
 
Howie Felterbush said:
That's an interesting website.

ETA: My prediction is Electoral College loses the Artichoke Bowl to Texas A&M.

Final Score 27:21.
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It's actually now called the Poulan Weed-Eater Artichoke Bowl Presented by Comcast. Other than that, good pick.
 
Electoral College: Romney 328-Obama 212.

Overall vote something like 53%-46%, Romney.
 
Dumb All Over said:
Could you eleaborate on that, Ben? I'd like to know what you mean by stuctural reasons.
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Personal opinion (Ben can speak for himself here too, especially if what he means isn't what I mean) is that simply put, the states which Obama has already locked up count for so many votes that Romney will have to pull a miracle in the tossup states in order to win.

[Figures from 538 today]
The following states are currently listed at 75% or better for Obama to win:

California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine (all districts), Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.

Total locked-up electoral votes: 243 (270 to win).

The following states are currently at 75% or better for Romney to win:

Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska (all districts), Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

Total locked-up electoral votes: 191

In November, this means Obama needs to get 27 votes from any combination of the remaining "tossup" states (which total 104 electoral votes) and the election is done. Romney, on the other hand, needs to make up 79. Right there, that's a pretty big structural advantage simply because the vast majority of the major EV states are already out of play for Romney -- the biggest remaining is Florida which is a dead heat: 53.2% for Romney that he _absolutely must win_ at all costs. If you live in Florida, expect to see nothing but shrillness on your TV for "commercials" for the next 2.5 months.

Worse news for Romney, however, is what my arbitrary cut-off line at 75% for a "lock" doesn't show:

Ohio (18 votes) currently predicted at 69.5% for Obama
Wisconsin (10) at 70.4% for Obama
Virginia (13) at 63.3% for Obama
Iowa (6) at 63.5% for Obama
New Hampshire (4) at 74.2% for Obama

These states are all very close to 2-to-1 or better for Obama, and thus are a huge obstacle for Romney to overcome. Ohio and Wisconsin alone would put Obama at 271 and victory. So while Romney has made good gains in Missouri (despite Akin) and North Carolina, he simply has too much ground to make up in multiple locations. There are just too many different ways for Obama to win right now by doing nothing but solidifying his advantage where he already has strong leads. (Colorado, for example, is worth 9 and is 57% in favor of Obama; Mr. Romney cannot afford to lose Colorado, but Mr. Obama can ignore it completely.)

My prediction? I'll give Obama Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Virginia on top of the "locks" above, and Romney should take all the rest. That makes it:

Obama: 288
Romney: 250

Popular vote: 48.8% Obama, 48.2% Romney.
 
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Dumb All Over said:
Could you eleaborate on that, Ben? I'd like to know what you mean by stuctural reasons.
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The red states getting redder, which they are, does not help. He (Romney) needs blue states getting redder.

Right now, the states Obama can reasonably count on are a much larger number of EVs than the states Romney can reasonably count on. And if even 1/3 of the states where the race is close go Obama, Obama wins.
 
BenBurch said:
Obama 47.2% Romney 48.6%

EC Obama 272, Romney 266

There are structural reasons it will be hard for Obama to lose.
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I like this prediction - I played with several scenarios where Obama won a squeaker in the EC. I agree that Romney will win the popular vote regardless.

Out of curiosity, how did you have the battleground states in your model? I was having a hard time replicating your EC numbers.
 
mikedenk said:
I like this prediction - I played with several scenarios where Obama won a squeaker in the EC. I agree that Romney will win the popular vote regardless.

Out of curiosity, how did you have the battleground states in your model? I was having a hard time replicating your EC numbers.
Click to expand...

Actually, I summed it wrong, it should have been 273/265

CA + OR + WA + NM + MN + IL + VT + NM + MA + RI + CT + NJ + DE + MD + PA + OH + VA +WI +MI +FL + CO

I don't think NV because of the perception that Obama hasn't given the state much and the really hard time they have had over the last four years.

I don't think IA, though it is close. I don't think MO though I think now it will be VERY close over the Akin thing. I think FL though close because of Medicare/Social Security. I don't think Ryan is loved enough in WI to deliver WI. I think CO will go because of really good federal response to the wildfires. I think OH will be close because of illegal voter suppression, but will go Obama. The only way Obama gets NC is if Romney does something to piss them off.
 
remirol said:
New Hampshire (4) at 74.2% for Obama

These states are all very close to 2-to-1 or better for Obama, and thus are a huge obstacle for Romney to overcome. Ohio and Wisconsin alone would put Obama at 271 and victory. So while Romney has made good gains in Missouri (despite Akin) and North Carolina, he simply has too much ground to make up in multiple locations. There are just too many different ways for Obama to win right now by doing nothing but solidifying his advantage where he already has strong leads. (Colorado, for example, is worth 9 and is 57% in favor of Obama; Mr. Romney cannot afford to lose Colorado, but Mr. Obama can ignore it completely.)

My prediction? I'll give Obama Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Virginia on top of the "locks" above, and Romney should take all the rest. That makes it:

Obama: 288
Romney: 250

Popular vote: 48.8% Obama, 48.2% Romney.
Click to expand...

I have heard this before about NH. It vexes me as NH has been a traditionally Republican State and Romney is a "Local Boy".

Aside from Kerry, most "local boys" win.
http://www.salon.com/2011/10/28/just_like_dukakis_romney_is_taking_the_fun_out_of_new_hampshire/


Repubicans had a 111 year run in control of the General Court (4th Largest in the English Speaking World), and regained control in 2010.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_General_Court

NH being a swing state is very new in terms of politics.
 
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