2010 Midterm Election Preditions

[leftysergeant]

Remember, this is the state that elected Jesse Ventura. I think it's some kind of cheese mold that's affecting their brains.

Or maybe the barley is infected with ergot smut.

 

[Snide]

Not to derail any further, but as a Minnesotan living amongst the crazies, I thought I might be of some help.

As for Bachmann's district, it's an interesting geographical layout, with people from opposite sides of the Twin Cities metro area finding themselves in the same district. I'm not sure how representative this anecdote is, but my brother-in-law who is from this district is a single-issue Republican voter (guns), who once said John Kerry's photo op photo was a joke (true), because he wants to eliminate "pretty much every gun hunters use." Uggh.

But the beauty of Minnesota voters as evidenced by the Ventura and Bachmann wins is that if we think you're a lousy candidate, we won't vote you in. If you suck as a candidate, you may find yourself losing to uber-liberals like Paul Wellstone and Al Franken, or a strong conservative (and becoming more so as he eyes the White House) like Pawlenty, or even guano-crazy nutters like Bachmann. And if you're a good candidate, even if you say some potentially politically suicidal things (e.g., "organized religion is a sham"), we might just appreciate your honesty enough to vote you in.

Even the beloved Patty Wetterling couldn't beat Bachmann, although Wetterling is from St. Cloud, which is in District 6, because as a candidate, she was a dud. Jesse won with a little over 1/3 of the vote because Norm Coleman, who couldn't beat an SNL cast member, comes across as a privileged non-Minnesotan, and the third (DFL) candidate, the son of Hubert H. Humphrey no less, wasn't good enough beyond the coattails. Coleman could only win against Walter Mondale, who at 75 was visibly shaky during their televised debate, and simply didn't have the time to campaign to convince anyone he was the right guy for the next six years. Sorry Walter, we love ya, but your time has passed.

I'm not fond of Jesse's 9/11 comments (although they've been a bit overblown from what I've seen), but when he was running, he really struck a chord with at least 1/3 of the voters with his comments. One example that my dad loved, when he was hosted by then-Vikings owner Red McCombs at the Metrodome, who was no doubt schmoozing him in hopes to someday get a new stadium (without which he complained he could not compete, despite the fact that the very reason he got such a bargain basement price for an NFL franchise was that it did not have a modern stadium it could call its own), Jesse was asked on air, in McCombs' presence, what he thought about it. Jesse said in total irreverence, "There's nothing wrong with this stadium. We don't tear down schools after 16 years."

I wish more states would vote the less logical choices like Minnsotans aren't afraid to. It would make all of the candidates better.

 

[Brainster]

I'm not fond of Jesse's 9/11 comments (although they've been a bit overblown from what I've seen)

No, they're not overblown; he's a 9-11 Truther. Sorry to further derail, but I could not let that point stand unchallenged.

 

[Snide]

No, they're not overblown; he's a 9-11 Truther. Sorry to further derail, but I could not let that point stand unchallenged.

OK, I'll have a look when I get a chance. So far, all I've seen or heard from him is just that he would like certain questions answered by the government so people can give it a rest, and not in a "when will Glenn Beck answer the question about you-kow-what" way. But I admit to having done little research. I've just seen a couple interviews and read a few things online.

I will also point out this all has happened, of course, well after he was elected.

ETA: I clicked the link, and right away there is deceit. The headline reads "Former Governor Jesse Ventura: WTC Collapse A Controlled Demolition ." But what Jesse actually says is that it collapsed like a controlled demolition. Oh well, I'll still listen to the video.

 

[MattusMaximus]

From Politico, an interesting ideas piece by Christine Todd Whitman (a moderate Republican!) who says that the GOP is setting itself up for failure...

We shouldn't be attacking our own

RNC Chairman Michael Steele's promise that the GOP will “come after" incumbents who support President Barack Obama's policies is inexcusable. I like Steele personally — he was an original co-chairman of the Republican Leadership Council along with former Missouri Sen. Jack Danforth and me. He took on that role, he said, because he recognized that the party needed to be able to accommodate Republicans who might come out in different places on various issues. I wish he were still championing that message.

Lest we forget, people are elected to represent and serve their constituents — not a national political party's agenda. Last week, on the other side of the aisle, 39 Democrats in the House of Representatives voted against a Democratic president’s single most important policy goal. I cannot sit idly by and let the American people think there is not room for disagreement within the Republican Party.

Our party has recently lost plenty of seats in Congress; many of which were held by moderates who were driven out by constant attacks from within the party. Just last week in New York’s 23rd District, Republicans lost a congressional seat that had been in the party's hands since the 1800s. They lost because the right-wing ideological purists ran a conservative candidate against the Republican on the ballot. The result: Another member of the Democratic Caucus in Washington. Republicans in the House may not have always agreed with her, but Dede Scozzafava would have voted Republican the majority of the time, and we lost that voice. After all, to make a difference, you have to be relevant. ...

I wonder how long until the Tea Party wingnuts start throwing stones at Whitman? The TPers want to either run the GOP or run it into the ground, and with Steele making these sort of comments, it seems that perhaps the party leadership might be caving into the TPers.

Can't help fools

 

[Ohmer]

According to a recent Gallup poll, Republicans have a slight edge. More independents are leaning to the Republican side. Who knows if this will continue.

 

[MattusMaximus]

According to a recent Gallup poll, Republicans have a slight edge. More independents are leaning to the Republican side. Who knows if this will continue.

Interesting. I think a lot will rest on where things stand by next summer concerning the economy. Right now we're in the economic doldrums - though we are slowly climbing up - so these results aren't surprising, but in 6-7 months... a lot can happen.

I also think much of where things go in 2010 will hinge upon what happens in the primaries regarding how successful (or not) the TP fringers are in ousting moderate Republicans.