Greek elections

[ref]

It's another Greek election weekend. It's supposedly a tight race between pro-austerity New Democracy, and anti-austerity Syriza.

Nobody can predict who will win this time. The polls indicated, that either of those two could win, with a share of 25-30% of votes. But no new polls have been allowed for the last couple of weeks (and there were a lot of uncertain voters anyway), so the actual outcome on Sunday is really open.

However, it's quite safe to say that one of those two, either ND or Syriza, will be on top, and the other one will be a close and strong second. What does that mean then? It means, that if neither of those two get an absolute majority (around 40% of votes, highly unlikely either will get that much), we will be in yet another standoff situation, similar to that after the previous round. There will be a winning party, and a strong #2 party with completely opposing points of view. Although Syriza might have some advantage because of the recent developments (austerity-free Spanish loan), I doubt they will get even close to 40.

The way I see it, this would only continue on the road of everlasting uncertainty. No matter which of those two wins, we will still be in a continued standoff. What will the Troika do in this situation? Will they hand out the next installment of money the Greeks will be needing very soon? Probably yes. But what happens in Greece after that, yet another elections?

Seems quite an impossible situation. More clarity would be in order, but the way I see it, each outcome will lead to continued uncertainty and no solutions to anything.

 

[UndercoverElephant]

It's another Greek election weekend. It's supposedly a tight race between pro-austerity New Democracy, and anti-austerity Syriza.

Nobody can predict who will win this time. The polls indicated, that either of those two could win, with a share of 25-30% of votes. But no new polls have been allowed for the last couple of weeks (and there were a lot of uncertain voters anyway), so the actual outcome on Sunday is really open.

However, it's quite safe to say that one of those two, either ND or Syriza, will be on top, and the other one will be a close and strong second. What does that mean then? It means, that if neither of those two get an absolute majority (around 40% of votes, highly unlikely either will get that much), we will be in yet another standoff situation, similar to that after the previous round. There will be a winning party, and a strong #2 party with completely opposing points of view. Although Syriza might have some advantage because of the recent developments (austerity-free Spanish loan), I doubt they will get even close to 40.

The way I see it, this would only continue on the road of everlasting uncertainty. No matter which of those two wins, we will still be in a continued standoff. What will the Troika do in this situation? Will they hand out the next installment of money the Greeks will be needing very soon? Probably yes. But what happens in Greece after that, yet another elections?

Seems quite an impossible situation. More clarity would be in order, but the way I see it, each outcome will lead to continued uncertainty and no solutions to anything.

IIRC the Greek system has a mechanism whereby the winner of the election gets given an extra 50 seats. I think we have reason to expect that this time Syriza will come first, and will get the extra seats. Not an outright majority, but enough to dictate the agenda.

As for "solutions" - there aren't any. We are yet to reach the point where the real underlying economic problems are even being openly discussed, so how could we possibly be heading towards any sort of a solution?

There's two separate problems with the eurozone. The first is that it is hopelessly indebted, just like the rest of the western world. I think we now know what the "solution" to that problem is going to be: they will print money like there is no tomorrow. Which brings us to the second problem with the eurozone, which is that they can't print money without running into near-impossible political problems.

Something very unusual is about to happen. It is apparently contrary to the German constitution to provide unlimited, unqualified bailouts/guarantees to the PIIGS banks/sovereigns, yet that is now the only thing that would keep the markets happy. So it looks to me like one of three things is going to happen after the Greek election, whoever wins it.

(1) Germany will do something that is prohibited by its own constitution.
(2) Germany will change its constitution to allow the required bailouts.
(3) Greece and Spain are going to default, followed by Portugal, Ireland and Italy, then France.

 

[Francesca R]

Nobody can predict who will win this time. The polls indicated, that either of those two could win, with a share of 25-30% of votes. But no new polls have been allowed for the last couple of weeks (and there were a lot of uncertain voters anyway), so the actual outcome on Sunday is really open.

Intrade has Syriza at 27% to win the largest vote share, and ND on 70%. However the volumes on both those contracts is rather low.

Immediately after the May election once it became clear that another one would be held, some EU leaders publicly warned that the next vote was "a referendum on Greece staying with the euro". But that message seems to have been quite quickly muted. It is a non-credible threat in my view so silencing it was sensible. Then last weekend, the rescue of Spain's big banks on light conditions and other developments have fuelled the idea that ground can/will be given on austerity targets.

As a result it seems plausible to me that Greek voters would be less afraid and more hopeful about voting for the Syriza coalition this time than they would have been last time, meaning that Syriza ought to do better than last time.

[ . . . ] what happens in Greece after that, yet another elections?

Dunno, but a third election seems silly.

 

[ref]

IIRC the Greek system has a mechanism whereby the winner of the election gets given an extra 50 seats. I think we have reason to expect that this time Syriza will come first, and will get the extra seats. Not an outright majority, but enough to dictate the agenda.

Yes, the winning party gets 50 extra seats. Therefore the absolute majority percentage of around 40% of votes (varies a little depending on how many parties get 3% or more of votes), which with those extra 50 seats quarantees the one party majority with 151 seats.

 

[ref]

As a result it seems plausible to me that Greek voters would be less afraid and more hopeful about voting for the Syriza coalition this time than they would have been last time, meaning that Syriza ought to do better than last time.

I agree. I predict (read guess) that Syriza would be number one this time, with a 30%+ share of votes.

Dunno, but a third election seems silly.

It really would seem silly. Hard to see any reasonable outcome in the coming weeks and a working government, though. Tough situation in Hellas.

CNBC is flooding with Greece headlines today.

Greece Euro Exit Would Kill Already Fragile Hospitals
Spain Yields Fall, Liquidity Plans Calm Greek Nerves
Greece Sinks Into Despair: 'There's Nothing Here Anymore'
Dread and Uncertainty Pervade Life in Greece
History of Defaults: Greece Did It First; Spain Most Often

and so on...

 

[GlennB]

However, it's quite safe to say that one of those two, either ND or Syriza, will be on top, and the other one will be a close and strong second. What does that mean then? It means, that if neither of those two get an absolute majority (around 40% of votes, highly unlikely either will get that much), we will be in yet another standoff situation, similar to that after the previous round.

If Syriza do slightly worse than last time then ND and PASOK might well be able to form a coalition (this scenario could also work if the 2 coalition parties mop up votes from the fringe parties). Or Syriza needs to do quite a lot better. I'd risk a small wager at (say) 5-2* that Syriza will make it.

*European style odds where 2 gains you 5

 

[aleCcowaN]

I "predict" Néa Dimokratia will win the election. I base my "prediction" in the technical tie of all polls and the fact that conservative population in the countryside is badly covered during polls. Besides, in times of trouble people is reluctant to change when they are forced to operate within the same "institutionality" (though they may be eager to make changes in their institutions)

Such a win and a probable new government with a lukewarm PASOK would only put slow motion to the débâcle. Some defections would make the new government fall and new elections will come in 6-9-12 months.

 

[Humes fork]

The kleptocratic republic of Greece is going to elect which set of thiefs they want to be ruled by. Unfortunately it doesn't affect only themselves.

I predict the pro-austerity parties (ND and Pasok) will make it (probably together), and the austerity will continue. It will please the world's stock exchanges in the short term. In the medium term it won't help, because fact remains that the common currency is a very bad idea, the country is thoroughly corrupt, has a horrible business climate and is simply not competitive beyond olives and tourism (which is a result of their business climate).

Greece was a military dictatorship a few decades ago, and the traditional major parties (ND and Pasok) have each been ruled by one family for each of them. Greece has a rather short democratic tradition. It wouldn't surprise me if this finally ends with a new dictatorship, thus forcing Greece out of the EU and the EMU.

 

[UndercoverElephant]

The kleptocratic republic of Greece is going to elect which set of thiefs they want to be ruled by.

It looks like they are about to kick out the usual bunch of thieves and liars and are instead going to elect a bunch of radical lefties, greens and feminists. This has not happened in any EU country before.

Unfortunately it doesn't affect only themselves.

I predict the pro-austerity parties (ND and Pasok) will make it (probably together), and the austerity will continue. It will please the world's stock exchanges in the short term. In the medium term it won't help, because fact remains that the common currency is a very bad idea, the country is thoroughly corrupt, has a horrible business climate and is simply not competitive beyond olives and tourism (which is a result of their business climate).

Greece was a military dictatorship a few decades ago, and the traditional major parties (ND and Pasok) have each been ruled by one family for each of them. Greece has a rather short democratic tradition. It wouldn't surprise me if this finally ends with a new dictatorship, thus forcing Greece out of the EU and the EMU.

Except nobody in Greece wants to leave either the EU or the eurozone. In fact they are currently telling Mrs Merkel that she'll have to invent a novel method of kicking them out and that they have no intention of leaving. She, meanwhile, is earnestly warning the Greeks of dire consequences if they leave! How bonkers is that? It makes not the slightest bit of sense, and the reason is that all politicians are liars and now the lies are catching up with them.

 

[UndercoverElephant]

Spain (to Germany): Help! Help! Our banks are busted, we can't print money and our borrowing costs are too high.

Germany (to Spain): Here, have a 100 billion euro loan, so your debts get bigger and your borrowing costs go higher. It will stop your banks from collapsing before the Greek election.

Greece (to Germany): Hey! You just gave Spain 100 billion euros with no strings attached! We want the same deal!

Germany (to Greece): No. You must accept permanent, hopeless austerity. It'll be good for you. And don't you dare leave! There will be hell to pay if you leave!

Greece (to Germany): We won't go! You can't throw us out! No mechanism exists!

Italy (to Germany): We noticed the 100 billion euros you just gave to Spain with no string attached. If Spain gets special treatment, so do we. We're founder members, after all.

UK and US (to the eurozone): There's a bomb about to go off! Defuse it NOW! Because....we're sitting on even bigger bombs, and there might be a chain reaction!

Greece: We've had enough of this ****. We're going to elect a bunch of marxist/feminists/ecowarriors. And we're not leaving the eurozone!

Germany: ?????????????

 

[GlennB]

Greece has a rather short democratic tradition.

It's o/t I know, but I must admit this made me grin

 

[Francesca R]

 

[Humes fork]

It's o/t I know, but I must admit this made me grin

I'm talking about modern democracy.

Greece as inventor of democracy is overblown. Celtic and Germanic tribes had some democratic elements in their form of government. Kingship by inheritance came with Christianity.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Oh, yes! Celts and Germanics were as democratic -in a sense that really matters- as their hair and armpits smelt well. That's why they have bequeathed their marvellous institutions to us. And don't forget they were very pacific also, and only attacked when provoked.

 

[Humes fork]

Oh, yes! Celts and Germanics were as democratic -in a sense that really matters- as their hair and armpits smelt well. That's why they have bequeathed their marvellous institutions to us. And don't forget they were very pacific also, and only attacked when provoked.

The parliaments of Iceland and Isle of Man, the oldest still functioning parliaments in the world (decidedly NOT located in Athens) were established by Norsemen. Our insitutions of government do not come from the Greeks.

I don't know if they were any less violent than the ancient Greeks, perhaps you can enlighten me?

Your comment about armpits is only an illustration of the Hollywood(ish) material you have been consuming, it is not based on real historical scholarship.

If you want to discuss with me, it helps not being historically illiterate.

 

[aleCcowaN]

...

If you want to discuss with me, it helps not being historically illiterate.

Yes, Hollywood

Incivility and a convenient 15-century time lag, noted. Your careful avoidance of war issues, noted. Your tongue-lashing without backing, noted.

If you knew just a little bit of history, you'll have in mind the picturesque descriptions of your beloved great great ... great great granduncles (some of them great great ... great grandparents to me) around 450 in late Roman written documents, like the famous Burgundian rubbing his hair with butter day after day.

You'd need at least five years of continuous studies to match what I know of history, so keep yourself calm.

 

[Humes fork]

Yes, Hollywood

Incivility and a convenient 15-century time lag, noted. Your careful avoidance of war issues, noted. Your tongue-lashing without backing, noted.

If you knew just a little bit of history, you'll have in mind the picturesque descriptions of your beloved great great ... great great granduncles (some of them great great ... great grandparents to me) around 450 in late Roman written documents, like the famous Burgundian rubbing his hair with butter day after day.

You'd need at least five years of continuous studies to match what I know of history, so keep yourself calm.

You provided not a single argument here, just red herrings and ad homs.

You are at a skeptic forum, not Poe-News.

 

[aleCcowaN]

You provided not a single argument here, just red herrings and ad homs.

You are at a skeptic forum, not Poe-News.

Blah, blah ... but it sounded to me more like "Nah, nah, nah! I can't hear you! I can't hear you!".

You can't erase other people's posts, so you say they don't exist or they don't say what they say. Typical local culture.

Fortunately, you can't erase your posts either, by psychological reasons, so I'm not worried. It all remains here.

 

[Humes fork]

Blah, blah ... but it sounded to me more like "Nah, nah, nah! I can't hear you! I can't hear you!".

You can't erase other people's posts, so you say they don't exist or they don't say what they say. Typical local culture.

Fortunately, you can't erase your posts either, by psychological reasons, so I'm not worried. It all remains here.

Um yeah?

 

[Wildy]

Looks like it's going to be close between New Democracy and Syriza.