So Will 2012 Be Just Another Year?

[Nosi]

What does that have to do with an alleged immanent collapse of civilization? I have no idea what that last sentence is supposed to mean.

realpaladin kicked my arguement to .

 

[realpaladin]

realpaladin kicked my arguement to .

That's a first for me... what do I win?

 

[Nosi]

That's a first for me... what do I win?

I just ate a massive bowl of cabbage soup, so you'd best not ask that right now

 

[Ladewig]

No, they weren't. 40 years ago people were worried about an imminent nuclear exchange with the Russians. The environmental movement was in its infancy, climate change was unheard of, the global population was less than half its current level and people were worried about what their distant descendants might have to cope with in terms of clearing up the ecological mess. This time they are telling you that the entire global economic/monetary system is about to collapse and that if we don't change our behaviour very quickly we might just make this planet uninhabitable for humans within the expected lifetimes of people alive today.

It is worse now than it was then.

You seem to be saying that international economic collapse will make the world more uninhabitable than an intercontinental nuclear war would. I am having a hard time believing that.


ETA: and before you claim I am misquoting you. You are saying that the things we are being warned about now are measurably worse than the things we were warned about 40 years ago. You admit that 40 years ago we worried about a full-scale nuclear exchange making the world uninhabitable. But those warning and worries are not as bad as the warnings and worryings that are occurring now.

 

[Ladewig]

Of course I watch the news. I even remember watching the news 40 years ago, when similar doom-mongers were prophesying the same sort of doom. Three-Day week and Winter of Discontent, remember? If I were older, I'd probably remember similar doom-mongers prophesying similar doom on the radio or in the newspapers way back over hundreds of years. 'Twas ever thus, only the specifics change and those not by much.

When I was young, I had to walk uphill in the snow just to hear Cicero say "O tempora o mores." And that line was old even then!

 

[realpaladin]

When I was young, I had to walk uphill in the snow just to hear Cicero say "O tempora o mores." And that line was old even then!

That's nothing! When I was young we had to wait for a volcano to errupt so we could cook an egg. And man did we hope it was not a surviving leftover fertile egg from a T-Rex.

 

[Darat]

That's nothing! When I was young we had to wait for a volcano to errupt so we could cook an egg. And man did we hope it was not a surviving leftover fertile egg from a T-Rex.

And god help you if it was double-yolker!

 

[realpaladin]

And god help you if it was double-yolker!

Yeah, then you'd pray to the portable mini-totem of the god of totems that the Shaman did not put the totem of the running-away-like-hell-god all the way in the back with the napkins!

 

[UndercoverElephant]

It is worse now than it was then.

You seem to be saying that international economic collapse will make the world more uninhabitable than an intercontinental nuclear war would. I am having a hard time believing that.

ETA: and before you claim I am misquoting you. You are saying that the things we are being warned about now are measurably worse than the things we were warned about 40 years ago. You admit that 40 years ago we worried about a full-scale nuclear exchange making the world uninhabitable. But those warning and worries are not as bad as the warnings and worryings that are occurring now.

Actually, I'm not sure a full-scale nuclear exchange would be as bad as humanity slowly being skewered by a malthusian catastrophe. The nuclear exchange would do far more harm to human settlements - cities and industry - than it would to the natural world. There's not much point in dropping bombs on wilderness areas. A nuclear exchange would cause short-term damage to wildlife, but it would recover strongly, as has happened around Chernobyl. It would also send global warming into reverse (by causing a "nuclear winter") and seriously reduce greenhouse emissions (fewer humans around, less industry).

A major nuclear exchange would be an unmitigated catastrophe for humans alive today and those who will be born in the next few decades, but it would not make the world as uninhabitable as industrialised civilisation will if it continues in the direction it is currently going in. Nature would come out the winner, and sooner rather than later.

 

[UndercoverElephant]

When the first amino acids combined to form life there was also something 'completely new' to dominate the planet. It has taken it's time to do so.

But the manner you are speaking suggests the same Frankenstein-complex with technology and society as people had when the first trains started to storm around at 20 miles an hour.

I can understand why it might look that way, but that's not really the way I feel. I'm quite capable of looking at technology and society from a present-day, human perspective. I understand why people like technology and want civilisation to go on "progressing." I'm not having some sort of irrational pyschological reaction to it. It's just that I'm also capable of looking at the global ecosystem from a completely dispassionate (towards humans) perspective, and I can see an unresolvable conflict building between them. I fear for the future of the civilisation I'm part of because I know it is unsustainable, and I also know that the moment when that unsustainability starts to bite is now.

Face it 2012 will be another year where we grumble and where the younger generation, who has been spoonfed to the max, is annoyed by the fact that they can not sit on their behinds but have to figure out what to do next.

I think 2012 may turn out to be the year when the younger generation wake up and realise they've been gilted by all the previous generations. OWS, as well as the Arab Spring, is in part a revolution by the young against the old.

In the immortal words of the Talking Heads: Same as it ever was, same as it ever was.

This ain't no party, this ain't no disco,
this ain't no fooling around
This ain't no Mudd Club, or C. B. G. B.'s,
I ain't got time for that now...

 

[UndercoverElephant]

Peak Oil collapse predictions do seem to have a spiritual aspect, especially with regard to accounting for skepticism (that is, the question of why some smart people agree with the beliefs, but most others disagree). By "spiritual aspect" I mean some, or any, beliefs regarding differences in the nature of cognition and perception (apart from general intelligence) between individuals -- whether those differences are attributed to random genetic influences, religious background, benefits of practices such as meditation or ritual, or outright supernatural forces. (I agree with UE, as well as with a certain Archdruid, that whether or not such supernatural forces actually exist is of no importance in that discussion.)

In the 9/11 conspiracy forum, I wrote this post comparing and contrasting Peak Oil beliefs with 9/11 Truth beliefs. Regarding the spiritual (in the sense just defined) aspects of both, I wrote:


If I'm not mistaken, that is the sense in which UE would consider a clear widespread pre-collapse crisis in 2012 a spiritual event: one that would change many people's way of thinking about how the world works.

Absolutely, yes. It would change the way many people think for the better. It would help them to understand the truth, and understand it holistically.

All the new-agers waiting for massive earth changes, pole shifts or planetary collisions have totally missed the point. While they are busily waiting for something that isn't going to happen, the real world they live in is going through major changes and all sorts of previously-obscured truths are being revealed about the way it currently works.

Arguing about the semantics of whether the word "spiritual" is actually justified in that context is a bit of a sidetrack. At the same time, UE, can you accept that there are reasons people might disagree with your expectations for 2012-2015, apart from being distracted by that semantic issue?

There's all sorts of reasons why people disagree with my expectations.

 

[Brainache]

I can understand why it might look that way, but that's not really the way I feel. I'm quite capable of looking at technology and society from a present-day, human perspective. I understand why people like technology and want civilisation to go on "progressing." I'm not having some sort of irrational pyschological reaction to it. It's just that I'm also capable of looking at the global ecosystem from a completely dispassionate (towards humans) perspective, and I can see an unresolvable conflict building between them. I fear for the future of the civilisation I'm part of because I know it is unsustainable, and I also know that the moment when that unsustainability starts to bite is now.



I think 2012 may turn out to be the year when the younger generation wake up and realise they've been gilted by all the previous generations. OWS, as well as the Arab Spring, is in part a revolution by the young against the old.



This ain't no party, this ain't no disco,
this ain't no fooling around
This ain't no Mudd Club, or C. B. G. B.'s,
I ain't got time for that now...

But people have been aware of this for a long time and have been doing things to mitigate our impact on the environment for just as long. 2012 is nothing special.

Whether enough is being done, or can be done to avoid catastrophe remains to be seen.

 

[UndercoverElephant]

But people have been aware of this for a long time and have been doing things to mitigate our impact on the environment for just as long. 2012 is nothing special.

Well, that's where I don't agree with you. You're right that this has been building for a while, having started in the sixties. However, our reaction to the threat has always been far too little, far too late and it is inevitable that sooner or later we will actually reach a crisis point where "this is going to be unsustainable" turns into "we can no longer sustain this." Well...there's two important turning points. One is the physical turning point, where we hit the first major "Liebig bottleneck". That turning point will be the peak in global production of conventional crude oil, and it won't be 2012 because that event has been spread over several years (the "bumpy plateau") and it won't be absolutely clear we've passed it until another few more years after that. But there is another turning point, and that is to do with the public perception of the problem and the associated "virtual world" problems like economic and monetary chaos (these are "virtual" in the sense that what people believe or how many green pieces of paper are in circulation don't actually have anything to do with how much real physical resources are available.) I think 2012 will be different because it will be (by the time its over) the point where the public perception of what is going on changes at the fastest rate. It is going to be the year when the masses finally realise something very big is happening, and that the "doomers" may not be so crazy after all. This change in perception will be important in determining what sort of system emerges from the rubble of the system that is currently collapsing.

 

[Relax]

Will tomorrow be like any other day?

You should not concern yourself with the future, but rather you should live every day as though it could be your last, but you should also be prepared to live the next day as well.

 

[UndercoverElephant]

Will tomorrow be like any other day?

You should not concern yourself with the future...

Whilst that might be good advice on a self-help/spiritual level, I'm afraid it leads to disaster when 7 billion humans think that way and the vast majority decide that it's a good idea to have children. Our lack of concern with the future is a key reason why we've ended up in this mess. "I shall live for today. Overpopulation isn't my problem. I'll squeeze a few out, and if they starve to death then it ain't my problem!"

All of us need to be concerned with the future, because we are currently hurtling directly towards the biggest catastrophe in human history.

 

[Ladewig]

Actually, I'm not sure a full-scale nuclear exchange would be as bad as humanity slowly being skewered by a malthusian catastrophe. The nuclear exchange would do far more harm to human settlements - cities and industry - than it would to the natural world. There's not much point in dropping bombs on wilderness areas. A nuclear exchange would cause short-term damage to wildlife, but it would recover strongly, as has happened around Chernobyl. It would also send global warming into reverse (by causing a "nuclear winter") and seriously reduce greenhouse emissions (fewer humans around, less industry).

A major nuclear exchange would be an unmitigated catastrophe for humans alive today and those who will be born in the next few decades, but it would not make the world as uninhabitable as industrialised civilisation will if it continues in the direction it is currently going in. Nature would come out the winner, and sooner rather than later.

Thank you.

 

[realpaladin]

I can understand why it might look that way, but that's not really the way I feel. I'm quite capable of looking at technology and society from a present-day, human perspective. I understand why people like technology and want civilisation to go on "progressing." I'm not having some sort of irrational pyschological reaction to it. It's just that I'm also capable of looking at the global ecosystem from a completely dispassionate (towards humans) perspective, and I can see an unresolvable conflict building between them. I fear for the future of the civilisation I'm part of because I know it is unsustainable, and I also know that the moment when that unsustainability starts to bite is now.

I think 2012 may turn out to be the year when the younger generation wake up and realise they've been gilted by all the previous generations. OWS, as well as the Arab Spring, is in part a revolution by the young against the old.

Well, my problem is not with the 'bad' things you claim, but rather with the 'year' thing and with the 'youth' thing.

Let me explain the 'year' thing first... 2012 is no special year. Just as 1969 was not a special year. In 1969 something extraordinary happened which made it historically a special year.
By starting out with the premisse of 2012 is special you are handing out the prize before the race...

Next for the 'youth' thing. The youth needs to understand more first and act a little less. They are calling for action because all they know is 'instant gratification' whereas any sustainability plans and action can only come from those that accept a 'delayed gratification'.
A good example is the amount of debt an 18 year old starts his working career with.
In my country around 15% starts off with a debt of 3500 euro's or more.
They have incurred that debt primarily by consuming luxury goods, with the biggest bulk being mobile phone bills.

In my line of work I sometimes get to see the kind of traffic going over the AMS-IX, the busiest traffic node of the Internet...
About 99.99% of that is entertainment and consumerism, most of it done by the young.

Now, I do not deny that there are now area's where people may get organised and change their future, but it sure as heck is not in the western world...

 

[UndercoverElephant]

By starting out with the premisse of 2012 is special you are handing out the prize before the race...

I'm not starting out with that as a premise. I'm just observing what is going on in the world at the moment and claiming that we are very close to a fundamental turning point in human history. Sooner or later this must happen, unless you think humans can miraculously get themselves out of the overpopulation/resources crisis they have created. Sooner or later the population will peak and the die-off will start. I expect it will be quite a few years before we reach that point, but it will be clear we are in serious trouble much sooner than that. What I am saying is that I believe we are currently living through that period in history when the human race collectively starts to realise that we have reached the point where we can't actually go on like this any longer, because it's physically impossible to do so.

Anyway...my point is that sooner or later there is going to be a "special" time as described above. All I'm saying is that this time is now, and this is based on current world events, not an assumption. It's based on observations about the state of the world's oil supply/demand situation, the economic situation, the monetary system and all the rest of it. At the moment nearly all of the politicians and economists are living in a cloud cuckoo land where the route out of the current mess is to get global economic growth going to get those debts under control. The truth is that the debts are already totally out of control and that peak oil means the era of long-term global economic growth is ending. The public is being lied to twice-over - once about the possibility of the major western debtor nations being able to use growth and austerity to get out of the debt trap and once about the long-term sustainability of growth at all, given that we live on a finite planet. These sorts of lies have a limited shelf-life. Sooner or later, reality will assert itself.

Next for the 'youth' thing. The youth needs to understand more first and act a little less. They are calling for action because all they know is 'instant gratification' whereas any sustainability plans and action can only come from those that accept a 'delayed gratification'.

A good example is the amount of debt an 18 year old starts his working career with.
In my country around 15% starts off with a debt of 3500 euro's or more.
They have incurred that debt primarily by consuming luxury goods, with the biggest bulk being mobile phone bills.

Sure, they don't know what is going to hit them. Neither do most other people, but people under the age of about 25 have grown up in a world that has left them totally unprepared for what's coming.

 

[Johny2x4]

And the data for your "flawless predictions "is where?

Nice to see you backpedaling too. First it was "2012 will be special", now is "it´s coming, some day, but it´s coming."

 

[realpaladin]

I'm not starting out with that as a premise. I'm just observing what is going on in the world at the moment and claiming that we are very close to a fundamental turning point in human history. Sooner or later this must happen, unless you think humans can miraculously get themselves out of the overpopulation/resources crisis they have created.

They have not created it, it is a quite old prediction by Malthus; the resources are finite (or the acquiring of those resources has a limit) and at some point the consumers of those resources will outnumber the amount of consumers that can be sustained by the resources (or acquiring thereof).

It is nothing special even for humans; it happens in just about any ecological system all the time.

The only reason it is a bit wry with humans is that we also use a lot of sustenance resources for non-sustenance goods and activities.

Sooner or later the population will peak and the die-off will start. I expect it will be quite a few years before we reach that point, but it will be clear we are in serious trouble much sooner than that. What I am saying is that I believe we are currently living through that period in history when the human race collectively starts to realise that we have reached the point where we can't actually go on like this any longer, because it's physically impossible to do so.

Realisation is nothing if you can not (to paraphrase someone who could not use some substances in moderation) 'start with the man in the mirror'.

Anyway...my point is that sooner or later there is going to be a "special" time as described above.

Why? If I take a good look at China I see that their childbirth policies, harsh as they are, begin bearing fruit.

The reason the rest of the world still has not done something like that is because people are too hooked on the 'freedom or bust' meme.

But that does not mean that at some point they will have to concede that 'yeah... some points of that communist state, some points of those socialists, some points of those liberals, some points of those hedonists... they are actually making sense'.

And all these occupy madhatters of the Western world... they just want to consume without responsibility.

All I'm saying is that this time is now, and this is based on current world events, not an assumption. It's based on observations about the state of the world's oil supply/demand situation, the economic situation, the monetary system and all the rest of it.

These kind of words were also uttered in the 'Golden Age'. And the only way to avert it was to go forward with gusto.
And whaddayaknow? It worked!

At the moment nearly all of the politicians and economists are living in a cloud cuckoo land where the route out of the current mess is to get global economic growth going to get those debts under control. The truth is that the debts are already totally out of control and that peak oil means the era of long-term global economic growth is ending.

Well, what is new about that? In Europe 20th century there was the hungerwinter, Germany has been bankrupted twice and recoverd to become the most economic prospering country of Europe.

And there are more examples further back in history.
(while I am typing this I am thinking of Randy Newman's 'Great Nations of Europe' )

The public is being lied to twice-over - once about the possibility of the major western debtor nations being able to use growth and austerity to get out of the debt trap and once about the long-term sustainability of growth at all, given that we live on a finite planet. These sorts of lies have a limited shelf-life.

I have yet to see someone with that claim to prove they are lies... can you prove it?

Sooner or later, reality will assert itself.

In my world it does every morning at about 0700... harsh reality it is... I have to wait until 0705 until my coffee is ready...

Sure, they don't know what is going to hit them. Neither do most other people, but people under the age of about 25 have grown up in a world that has left them totally unprepared for what's coming.

No, it has not. In fact it has given them more access to knowledge, more time to practice skills, more wealth to acquire both than ever in history before.

And what happens? They buy Apple goodies so they can post video's of themselves getting a Darwin Award and commenting OMG, LOLZ.

They think that any foodstuff (like OMG 'pink slime') can gross them out and that nutrition means hanging out with your buddies at KFC.

But even though they have access to the same information that you and I have, they don't give a damn.

So if they don't know what hit them, good riddance.