Newt promises a permanent moonbase by the end of his second term

[mhaze]

Mhaze:

First, we need fusion technology (which we don't have).
..........

Mhaze:....Well,that ignores post 158 nicely. No you do not. You need investors to buy the He3 for it's future value. It is no more or less than a commodity trade. You need near term fusion technology to "maximize the current value" of He3. In the commodities market, stockpiled He3 would have prices set by aggregate investors opinions of the time before fusion technology existed, then modified by the location of the material (A) on earth (B0 stockpiled on the moon.

Since governments like to steal things and so far they haven't gotten past stealing things on one planet, I suspect there wouldn't be much difference in those valuations.

But you or I don't dictate to a market what it wants or how it should or will act.

Second, we would have to pay the cost of the trip there. As a point of comparison, a single space shuttle launch was ~$450 million
.....
That's $450 million plus each and every time we have to launch a mission either to retrieve the processed fuel, plus each and every supply mission, plus each and every personnel changeout.
....
Meanwhile, here's my promised list (not all inclusive) of what just 1 billion dollars can buy (numbers chosen for clarity of example):....

I ask (again), which of you space program advocates is going to look little Johnny and Suzie Sixpack in the eye and tell them they can't eat tonight because the money that COULD provide them food is being spent on a wasteful, entirely speculative and unnecessary lunar colony?

Space activities beyond launching needful satellites and an asteroid watch program are a luxury item we cannot afford and should not spend money on at this time.

That is a truly profound depth of misunderstanding. Please read post 118 and come back with your comments. Or...don't...

 

[TragicMonkey]

I read that NASA scientists have calculated that if they could just find a way to harness the power of Newt Gingrich's ego they'd have enough energy to power a spacecraft all the way to the Andromeda Galaxy and back.

 

[RenaissanceBiker]

Post #118

nope, not the right question. The competitors for the prize decide what technology they use.

What the country gets is a multiple of the prize money in invested capital.....5 to 20x.

The community level economic effect is 4 or 5 times that.

If the prize was 20B, first level positive economic effects are on the level of 400 - 5000b on a taxpayer investment of just 20b, and that is whether they succeed or not.

Thats a no lose deal.

If the payoff is that great, why would the investors just give it to the government? They would say, "Screw your prize. I'm richer than you!" If only we could make the right fusion reactor. Oh, I know! Let's offer a government prize for that!

No one is going to pay $3B/ton for moon dust that is worthless without fusion reactors. Your entire lunar pipe dream is based on science fiction.

 

[BenBurch]

In any case we might not need helium three, it is only needed if you cannot make plasmas behave well enough.

 

[mhaze]

In any case we might not need helium three, it is only needed if you cannot make plasmas behave well enough.

And then you'd have a lunar moon base, which if they had any smarts would have been thinking about alternative profit centers in case he3 turned out to be a dud. But the he3 venture would have paid for those developments with strictly private capital.

Thus your comment is something that is not my problem, your problem, or a problem of any government. It is simply a factor to be weighed in in the profit/loss for mining he3 and thus is of interest to investors in that.

Post #118

If the payoff is that great, why would the investors just give it to the government? They would say, "Screw your prize. I'm richer than you!" ....

Really? Maybe so. Reference Heinlien, "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress".

And the inventory room on the moon is exactly where they would be able to say that. Investment papers for he3 would be for ownership say per gram. Taxation would be to the owners who are on the planet.

Post #118

....No one is going to pay $3B/ton for moon dust that is worthless without fusion reactors. Your entire lunar pipe dream is based on science fiction.

Surrrrreeee.....

The present value of the he3 is simply discounted by the various future possibilities. One is that it is worthless TODAY without fusion reactors today. There are others. But the price does not go to zero. With a fifty-fifty chance of fusion reactors within 5 years, say the market price is $1B/ton. With a fifty-fifty chance or an uncertain chance within 25 years, suppose the market establishes the price at $100M a ton.

The latter means that the payoff for a dollar invested is 30 dollars. The function of the market is to equilibrate risk and reward. It's actually a classical case of commodities futures.

DuhhhH!!!!!

By the way I note that you have dropped almost all of your objections or questions in your initial post. So is all that is left argument by ridicule?

Just curious.

Finally, take a look at this.

http://www.googlelunarxprize.org/prize-details

and this...

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/02/08/google_x_prize_robot_musk_rocket_signing/

And of course this.

http://bigthink.com/ideas/21570

But I assure you that if you wish to shrink your vision and understanding, then on this forum we will help you in methods and techniques, if you lack them. Just as the Chinese once bound womens' feet when they were children, so that they could barely walk as adults, similarly, it is possible for you to do so with your brain. You CAN "hope and change".

mmm....mmm....mmm....

 

[BenBurch]

B + p fusion is aneutronic and had much higher output than D+T fusion. It is the target of the Polywell group, and I think they have a great chance of success.

 

[GlennB]

So, some little ugly craft with a payload bay about equal to the STS, in one return trip to Earth, brings enough fuel to power the US for a year.

A payload of some 20 tonnes. Is there any such craft, even on the horizon? Is such a craft feasible?

I realise it's low-G up there, but it ain't zero. This mystery craft needs fuel for landing and takeoff and one hell of a size to carry it, a problem the Shuttle didn't have to deal with. And then the He3 cargo needs to be transferred to shuttle-style craft for delivery to Earth as this beast won't be gliding down to Earth landing afaics.

It certainly sounds like pure sci-fi.

Or am I way behind the times in these matters or just too cynical? Both are always possible.

 

[RenaissanceBiker]

With a fifty-fifty chance of fusion reactors within 5 years, say the market price is $1B/ton. With a fifty-fifty chance or an uncertain chance within 25 years, suppose the market establishes the price at $100M a ton.

The latter means that the payoff for a dollar invested is 30 dollars. The function of the market is to equilibrate risk and reward. It's actually a classical case of commodities futures.

DuhhhH!!!!!

50/50 chance in five years is preposterous. If you tell an investor that in order to get his money you are a liar and a criminal. Uncertain chance in 25 years should scare any reasonable investor away. You can tell him the reward but not the risk? You might as well be selling him a warp drive.

By the way I note that you have dropped almost all of your objections or questions in your initial post. So is all that is left argument by ridicule?

Just curious.

Oh no. I have not dropped my objection to your claim there is plenty of usable water on the Moon. Please provide evidence of this since it is also essential to your plan.

Finally, take a look at this.

http://www.googlelunarxprize.org/prize-details

and this...

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/02/08/google_x_prize_robot_musk_rocket_signing/

And of course this.

http://bigthink.com/ideas/21570

But I assure you that if you wish to shrink your vision and understanding, then on this forum we will help you in methods and techniques, if you lack them. Just as the Chinese once bound womens' feet when they were children, so that they could barely walk as adults, similarly, it is possible for you to do so with your brain. You CAN "hope and change".

mmm....mmm....mmm....

OK, the Google Lunar X Prize is $30 million for sending a robot to the moon by the end of 2015. This robot does not need to find a large amount of water or use a fusion reactor. It just has to send back video.

Hawking raises valid questions about the future survival of our species. Many of the disasters he mentions will wipe us out anywhere in the solar system. That means we need to settle other solar systems. It needs to happen. It will require a long term approach that is ill served by a short term debacle. There's a reason that Bush abandoned his plans for the Moon. It's too expensive to attempt with anything less than a generation scale plan. Deadlines based on political terms of office are lunacy.

 

[mhaze]

5
OK, the Google Lunar X Prize is $30 million for sending a robot to the moon by the end of 2015. This robot does not need to find a large amount of water or use a fusion reactor. It just has to send back video....

SO WHAT? I'd call that a pretty significant accomplishment for private space ventures. Ben Burch here is quite knowledgeable about space. What do you think, Ben? Is that "no big deal"?

...Hawking raises valid questions about the future survival of our species. Many of the disasters he mentions will wipe us out anywhere in the solar system. That means we need to settle other solar systems. It needs to happen. ....

False. THAT requires robots going out and reporting back. We'll be in this solar system for 500-1000 years before those information loops complete their reporting and habitable planets are found happen in the absence of some sci fi warp drive or communication with the "galaxy level routers". If they even exist.

....Deadlines based on political terms of office are lunacy.

Not at all. For example. Prez XYZ could get Congress to agree for a prize of ? Billion for a privately funded manned moon landing by the end of his terms. It's not LUNACY, it's a prize for accomplishing something. The private market can nicely establish the feasibility with any particular time frame. They don't need the advice of someone like you who can't even figure out if there is water on the moon and how much.


Oh no. I have not dropped my objection to your claim there is plenty of usable water on the Moon. Please provide evidence of this since it is also essential to your plan.

Frankly, I don't answer questions that a thirty second google search immediately answers. Such a thing is not a "claim". But like I mentioned earlier, if you look this up and don't understand any or some part of the subject, I'll be happy to discuss it.

Oh, and it's not "my plan". Well, unless you acknowledge the other representations of Newt's plan on this thread to be bald faced lies for political smear purposes. Which, basically, they are, although they may be simply being repeated by ignorant people that don't know much about the topic.

 

[mhaze]

A payload of some 20 tonnes. Is there any such craft, even on the horizon? Is such a craft feasible?

I realise it's low-G up there, but it ain't zero. This mystery craft needs fuel for landing and takeoff and one hell of a size to carry it, a problem the Shuttle didn't have to deal with. And then the He3 cargo needs to be transferred to shuttle-style craft for delivery to Earth as this beast won't be gliding down to Earth landing afaics.

It certainly sounds like pure sci-fi.

Or am I way behind the times in these matters or just too cynical? Both are always possible.

It's low G and no atmosphere. Convert lunar water to hydrogen and oxygen, next the question is how many and what type rockets are needed, what tankage for the he3 and what type heat shield for the return.

It'd be a ugly vehicle like the Apollo return capsules, with a stage that was jettisoned or returned to the moon for reuse. Then a one way, unmanned payload transfer moon-earth likely splashing down in a big ocean.

Without getting into the geeky nerd space talk like "delta v budget" and "mass fraction", yeah, this is pretty easy.

 

[BenBurch]

Now, Lunar He-3 is nearly all within a few inches of the surface. I believe I could design you a one-use robotic spacecraft to go to the moon, land, scoop up a ton of surface soil, and return to an earth splash-down that would come in right around a half-billion a shot once you were making a dozen or so a year.

No need for people.

No need for the $2-3 Trillion a base would cost.

And if MHaze is right about the value of $1B/ton, lots of profit.

 

[RenaissanceBiker]

They don't need the advice of someone like you who can't even figure out if there is water on the moon and how much.

Frankly, I don't answer questions that a thirty second google search immediately answers. Such a thing is not a "claim". But like I mentioned earlier, if you look this up and don't understand any or some part of the subject, I'll be happy to discuss it.

Well my 30 second google search for "lunar water" turned up a few things. Here's what NASA has to say about it:
http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/ice/ice_moon.html

I'm not seeing conclusive evidence of USABLE water. Hydroxl groups bound up in minerals are not very useful. Here's the most interesting part:

Subsequent data from Lunar Prospector taken over a longer period has indicated the possible presence of discrete, confined, near-pure water ice deposits buried beneath as much as 18 inches (40 centimeters) of dry regolith, with the water signature being stronger at the Moon's north pole than at the south (4). The ice was thought to be spread over 10,000 to 50,000 square km (3,600 to 18,000 square miles) of area near the north pole and 5,000 to 20,000 square km (1,800 to 7,200 square miles) around the south pole, but the latest results show the water may be more concentrated in localized areas (roughly 1850 square km, or 650 square miles, at each pole) rather than being spread out over these large regions. The estimated total mass of ice is 6 trillion kg (6.6 billion tons). Uncertainties in the models mean this estimate could be off considerably.

"Possible presence of discrete, confined, near-pure water ice deposits buried beneath as much as 18 inches?" Well heck, send Bruce Willis up there to get some pronto!

Now, Lunar He-3 is nearly all within a few inches of the surface. I believe I could design you a one-use robotic spacecraft to go to the moon, land, scoop up a ton of surface soil, and return to an earth splash-down that would come in right around a half-billion a shot once you were making a dozen or so a year.

No need for people.

No need for the $2-3 Trillion a base would cost.

And if MHaze is right about the value of $1B/ton, lots of profit.

But we need to build a manned base because Newt said so. The future of mankind depends on it. You would have to bring back 6,000 tons of lunar dust to generate the $3 trillion needed to build it. Now what does the law of supply and demand say would happen to the price if you brought back that much? Assuming of course some enterprising soul builds us that reactor.

 

[GlennB]

It's low G and no atmosphere. Convert lunar water to hydrogen and oxygen, next the question is how many and what type rockets are needed, what tankage for the he3 and what type heat shield for the return.
It'd be a ugly vehicle like the Apollo return capsules, with a stage that was jettisoned or returned to the moon for reuse. Then a one way, unmanned payload transfer moon-earth likely splashing down in a big ocean.

Uh.....

The vehicle needs the size to contain 20t of He3 and its containment vessels, then take off. It will arrive with crew. Your plan seems to make no allowance for them.

Prior to this, you need to land equipment that can reliably convert Lunar H20 to rocket fuel. Otherwise this bug needs to carry its own launch fuel as it arrives. Oops.

Then you plan for this (what, 100 tonne?) vehicle to "splash down", unmanned, in an ocean? Where did the crew go?

Good luck with all that. What delusional world are you living in?

 

[mhaze]

Uh.....

The vehicle needs the size to contain 20t of He3 and its containment vessels, then take off. It will arrive with crew. Your plan seems to make no allowance for them.

Prior to this, you need to land equipment that can reliably convert Lunar H20 to rocket fuel. Otherwise this bug needs to carry its own launch fuel as it arrives. Oops.

Then you plan for this (what, 100 tonne?) vehicle to "splash down", unmanned, in an ocean? Where did the crew go?

Good luck with all that. What delusional world are you living in?

A world in which the he3 return vehicle is unmanned, and of arbitrary size. Just as cars, buses and so forth are sized for maximum utility, similarly a return vehicle would be sized. Maybe each return vehicle drops 500kg and there are bunches of them.

Let's handle the other part of your assertions. Reliably convert lunar h2o to rocket fuel? You mean, convert water by electrolysis using free solar energy to h2 and o2? Yes, that's pretty standard technology.

THEN comes the biggie. How pressurize that o2 and h2 to liquid form? Oh....gee.....the moon is only -387 to -416F.

h2 -423F
o2 -297F

Jeeping whillicers, that looks awfully easy....

???

Who said anything about bringing lunar dust back? I would agree you are thinking in terms of big government stupidity. THEY DID THAT. A private company would say, how can I make a profit doing this? And...

Now, Lunar He-3 is nearly all within a few inches of the surface. I believe I could design you a one-use robotic spacecraft to go to the moon, land, scoop up a ton of surface soil, and return to an earth splash-down that would come in right around a half-billion a shot once you were making a dozen or so a year.

No need for people.

No need for the $2-3 Trillion a base would cost.

And if MHaze is right about the value of $1B/ton, lots of profit.

Ahh...you want to do the he3 extraction in a self contained chemical process plant, likely batch mode, then send just the he3 back. My understanding is that the he3 extraction is rather trivial.

The remainder, I agree.

Anyway....all we need to do the he3 extraction as any space buff knows is a couple Challengers.

The ORIGINAL Challenger style...

http://www.tomswift.info/homepage/racemoon.html

 

[mikeyx]

We need a permanent moon base and you know it

The base is needed for a multitude of reasons.

 

[DavidJames]

okay then, I'm sold

 

[Mudcat]

Not that I disagree with you but your argument lacks meat on it's bones.

 

[MG1962]

The base is needed for a multitude of reasons.

Sure - care to name....oh...one of them?

 

[Buckaroo]

The base is needed for a multitude of reasons.

Nope. We really don't.

 

[MinnesotaBrant]

You know what happened to apollo 18 dont you?