1,2,3,4,5,6 in the lottery

[Undesired Walrus]

For years, I've been telling people that it's as likely for you to get the above numbers as something like 35,32,18,16, 28, 21.

People can't seem to believe it. Is this actually the case, or am I making a fool of myself?

 

[kajata]

Not only is it the same but if you won you'd probably share the jackpot with thousands of other people who play those numbers to make a point to their friends at the convenience store.

 

[Almo]

Yes, the likelyhood of winning is the same. But in the event of a win, you share it with others who played the same numbers. So you want to avoid picking numbers that other people are likely to pick.

 

[carlitos]

I used to play 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, just so when I asked for it, I could hear the cashier say "what are the odds of that?"

Yes, the likelyhood of winning is the same. But in the event of a win, you share it with others who played the same numbers. So you want to avoid picking numbers that other people are likely to pick.

Good point.

 

[dasmiller]

For years, I've been telling people that it's as likely for you to get the above numbers as something like 35,32,18,16, 28, 21.

People can't seem to believe it. Is this actually the case, or am I making a fool of myself?

[pedantic] It depends on what you mean by "something like." <1,2,3,4,5,6> should be exactly as likely as <16, 18, 21, 28, 32, 35>, but to the typical lottery player, there are several billion sequences "like" <16, 18, 21, 28, 32, 35> while there's only one sequence "like" <1,2,3,4,5,6>, and maybe ~40 case that are "like" <12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17> (i.e. sequential numbers).

Of course, once you've picked one particular sequence, the "like" part becomes inconsequential; <16, 18, 21, 28, 32, 35> should have the same chance of winning as <1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6>

[/pedantic]

 

[Irony]

Yes, the likelyhood of winning is the same. But in the event of a win, you share it with others who played the same numbers. So you want to avoid picking numbers that other people are likely to pick.

For the same reason, you shouldn't choose numbers that represent dates, or numbers you get from fortune cookies and the like.

 

[Dan O.]

The data is available from you local lottery office on the number of minor prizes for partial matches in each lottery drawing. From that you can calculate the probabilities that someone would pick any sequence of numbers for that lottery. I did this for the first couple of years that we had a lottery here but quickly lost interest because I never play.

 

[Mark6]

I read that people tend to avoid filling out numbers which make a geometric shape on the ticket, like

***
**
*

in a corner -- because it seems "doubly unlikely".

Of course the likelyhood of that winning is ther same as 1,2,3,4,5,6 or 35,32,18,16,28,21 or any other sequence, but apparently if you DO win your pot is less likely to be split. And fewer people would do so to make a point, unlike 1,2,3,4,5,6.

 

[alfaniner]

What are the chances that all the numbers for a couple major lotteries could be found in a random 1000-digit block of pi?


Pretty good so far, as it turns out.

 

[Dan O.]

Every possible set of numbers has exactly the same probability of being drawn. About the only thing you could count on is a lottery drawing the same set of numbers as they had drawn previously. That would be like doubly astronomically impossible.

 

[alexi_drago]

In a 6/49 lottery the combinations that have some sort of obvious looking pattern or sequence count for only a very small number of the 14 million possible combinations so it's more likely that a draw won't have any obvious sequence but every combination has an equal chance of showing up.

Another way of looking at it and shows how unlikely it is to win the lottery is that any random sequence you select has exactly the same odds of being drawn as 1,2,3,4,5,6

The best you can do if you do play is to choose a sequence that is less likely to be chosen by other people so that if you do win then you share the jackpot with fewer people, so don't use birthdays/use at least 1 number above 31, avoid making lines and patterns on the ticket or having incremental steps of your numbers.

Another thing is that instead of playing every draw, playing 2 tickets every second draw or 10 tickets every ten draws etc. increases your chances slightly though if you do that and play the same numbers each time it could be a bit disappointing if one of your tickets comes up in the draws you don't play in so maybe better to choose different numbers each time you play instead.

 

[Halfcentaur]

I figure the longer I go without ever once participating in the lottery, the better the odds are that the day I do I will be the winner of hundreds of millions of dollars. Yep.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Not only is it the same but if you won you'd probably share the jackpot with thousands of other people who play those numbers to make a point to their friends at the convenience store.

This is the problem using obvious number combinations with shared pots.

 

[Horatius]

... though if you do that and play the same numbers each time it could be a bit disappointing if one of your tickets comes up in the draws you don't play in so maybe better to choose different numbers each time you play instead.

"Quick Picks" exist for a reason!

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

In a 6/49 lottery the combinations that have some sort of obvious looking pattern or sequence count for only a very small number of the 14 million possible combinations so it's more likely that a draw won't have any obvious sequence but every combination has an equal chance of showing up.

Another way of looking at it and shows how unlikely it is to win the lottery is that any random sequence you select has exactly the same odds of being drawn as 1,2,3,4,5,6

The best you can do if you do play is to choose a sequence that is less likely to be chosen by other people so that if you do win then you share the jackpot with fewer people, so don't use birthdays/use at least 1 number above 31, avoid making lines and patterns on the ticket or having incremental steps of your numbers.

Another thing is that instead of playing every draw, playing 2 tickets every second draw or 10 tickets every ten draws etc. increases your chances slightly though if you do that and play the same numbers each time it could be a bit disappointing if one of your tickets comes up in the draws you don't play in so maybe better to choose different numbers each time you play instead.

There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing. So for example you can play 7 numbers in a 6 number game and cover most combinations so that instead of playing with 6 numbers you are essentially playing with 7. But it's expensive just to cover that many combinations so most of the wheels give you 3 or 4 numbers picked if any of the 7 are drawn. The increase in odds is so tiny however, it may not be worth the extra effort.

 

[Paul C. Anagnostopoulos]

What are the chances that all the numbers for a couple major lotteries could be found in a random 1000-digit block of pi?

Or even that the beginning of pi could be found in pi?

pi = 3.1415926...19729715941700531415926095214704122509...

Position 50,366,472.

~~ Paul

 

[alexi_drago]

I figure the longer I go without ever once participating in the lottery, the better the odds are that the day I do I will be the winner of hundreds of millions of dollars. Yep.

Yep, don't play for 14 million draws and save the price of a ticket each time, then wait for the jackpot to exceed 14M and use your savings, guaranteed win, you might get unlucky and have to share it though. There was someone who did that (well not save up each draw), there were 3 winners but with all the lower prizes he still made off it.

"Quick Picks" exist for a reason!

There is that but

There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing. So for example you can play 7 numbers in a 6 number game and cover most combinations so that instead of playing with 6 numbers you are essentially playing with 7. But it's expensive just to cover that many combinations so most of the wheels give you 3 or 4 numbers picked if any of the 7 are drawn. The increase in odds is so tiny however, it may not be worth the extra effort.

the wheels can be used to slightly improve the odds on the lower prizes although it is tiny and it won't make any difference to the chances on the jackpot other than the number of tickets your playing. Might be worth it for a syndicate to do some wheeling instead of having each person make up their own numbers.

 

[jasonpatterson]

As has been mentioned repeatedly, yes, you're right, any given set of 6 numbers in a fair lottery is equally likely to occur.

What is true, however, is that any set of 6 numbers with a simple pattern is less likely to occur than one of the sets of 6 numbers with no obvious pattern. Obvious might not be the best adjective, but there are far more combinations of the (3, 8, 22, 24, 37, 45) variety (i.e. no obvious pattern) than there are of the (1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11) variety. There are an awful lot of obvious patterns, to be sure, but there are far more sets that have none.

 

[jasonpatterson]

There are number wheels that give you slightly better odds playing. So for example you can play 7 numbers in a 6 number game and cover most combinations so that instead of playing with 6 numbers you are essentially playing with 7. But it's expensive just to cover that many combinations so most of the wheels give you 3 or 4 numbers picked if any of the 7 are drawn. The increase in odds is so tiny however, it may not be worth the extra effort.

If the game is fair, there's no way to increase your chances of winning aside from playing more times. Any given ticket is as likely as any other to win. I had to look up "lottery wheels," to be honest, but they just appear to be a mechanism for generating lots of lottery combinations.

 

[Paul2]

I've heard that the odds of winning the lottery are about the same whether you buy a ticket or not.