Critic’s “Top 15” claims by psychic detective Noreen Renier

[Sherlock]

Better take a better look. In actual testing under agreed parameters she failed to meet your expectations. See http://www.gpinquirygroup.com/gpinquirygroup/Bogus%20psychic%20tests%20and%20academic%20status.html

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

"As for this 'eastern' pit, a person with some inside knowledge of the police investigation (who allowed me to tape our conversation but requests anonymity) told me that this had been the 'prime target for the investigation' immediately following Renier's reading. 'They didn't think there was a [railroad] track [at Whitehurst].'"

So what you're saying is that the police agreed with Posner (and me) that the eastern pit fit the clues much better?

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

I would estimate the probabilities as:
Paranormal knowledge: 50%
Non-paranormal knowledge: 45%
Just got lucky: 5%

Why do you think paranormal knowledge is the most likely explanation? How do you reconcile this opinion with the fact that the clues given fit the eastern pit better than they do the northern one? How do you reconcile this opinion with the clues Renier gave which didn't turn out to have any significance whatsoever?

 

[Resume]

I would estimate the probabilities as:
Paranormal knowledge: 50%
Non-paranormal knowledge: 45%
Just got lucky: 5%

Of all these choices, the one you chose to give the most weight has no credible evidence in its favor.

 

[Rodney]

So what you're saying is that the police agreed with Posner (and me) that the eastern pit fit the clues much better?

No, I'm saying that the police were uncertain about which pit to search until they found the buried track near the Whitehurst pit. That prompted Chief Slaughter to call in some local divers to search that pit, rather than the eastern pit. Those divers didn't find anything, which might have caused Slaughter to reconsider searching the eastern pit. However, Slaughter then sighted the old weigh bridge, also near the Whitehurst pit, rather than the eastern pit. That's why Slaughter decided to intensify the search of the Whitehurst pit with some Navy divers.

 

[Sherlock]

Rodney may be correct in his posting immediately above, though the Psychic Detectives TV episode about the Williston case adds confusion. An examination of the TV script posted by Story House Productions at http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:CvWKTG5iP4EJ:ftp://ftp.zonevision.com.pl/Zone_Reality/Jasnowidz%2520w%2520sluzbie%2520prawa/SEASON%25202/SCRIPTS/PD%2520S2%2520-%2520Ep211%2520EndoftheRoadScript.doc+psychic+detectives+script+williston&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESh1_D6F4wcDnky3qvldFnoZf1uf5LCaLuCnRrX-e173ndiL4PiNGjFu1jRtJfmA41TCW5qE2GrV7CsrqWN0OpzJsEpC43MsNyCXMJ392uz5plJy9LcnE42cL0AHrt-H_-VXDDfY&sig=AHIEtbTRQJX1OSDaghbK5IA8-H_YMXgzkA&pli=1 (Allow about 30-45 seconds for a full download), seems to indicate that Slaughter and Sgt. Baxter found the truck weigh station and the rail line before calling in any Navy divers. And that this was after a third exchange with Renier, the last two of which were in person and Slaughter and Baxter provided photos of Lewis and his truck --- before discovery. In any case as months passed while Slaughter and Baxter (and others) sought match-ups its not surprising they found some. However, Posner agrees Rodney is correct that Det. Hewitt did discover the tracks before contacting the Navy. See his latest 4-20-2011 update that I have added to: www.gpposner.com/Williston-forum-reply.html.

 

[Sherlock]

If you have trouble downloading the Psychic Detectives script, use google and search for 'Psychic Detectives script Williston' and then select Quick View and wait about 30 seconds. For some reason it doesn't always load directly or when selecting the site title. Funny its on-line at all.

 

[Sherlock]

Does the Psychic Detectives TV episode replace Sgt. Baxter for Hewitt?
It seems like more confusion here. Or did Renier meet with Baxter, then Hewitt, then Baxter and Slaughter, and Baxter and Slaughter again. Seems like a lot of investigative time spent with a psychic --- over at least three different sessions, 2 in person --- for such a small town police group. A town then of about 14000 people.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

No, I'm saying that the police were uncertain about which pit to search until they found the buried track near the Whitehurst pit.

And that they thought it was the eastern pit first because it fit the clues better.

 

[fls]

This case is a nice illustration of the difference between information which is documented at the time and that which is provided after the answer is known.

It looks like these readings depend heavily upon the intuitions of the police officers involved. As has been pointed out, the readings themselves are not specific enough to indicate where a body is to be found. Instead, it looks like the readings are used to sort of sift through what is already known in order to focus greater attention on searching one or a few sites. From the information presented, Slaughter could have made the reading fit for any of a number of sites. So the purported confidence in the Whitehurst site is a bit puzzling unless it reflects Slaughter's own hunch which he may not have previously had the confidence to act upon or it is a reflection of a memory bias (we remember ourselves as more confident for the right answer than for the wrong). Had the truck and body been found in the East pit instead (or in any of a number of other places), there doesn't seem to be any reason to think that Slaughter would have been any less amazed about the accuracy of the reading.

It should be fairly obvious that if someone is not found on an initial search, that they are in a place that needs a more detailed search for discovery or a search of a broader area. So any process that involves stimulating detailed searches or a broadening of the search area, should fairly regularly lead to discoveries even if it's due to chance (i.e. the information is non-specific).. And psychic tips do that (stimulate detailed searches or broader searches). So what is actually odd here is not that Renier may have done so in this case, but that she should have done much better than this one case over the years, just due to chance. It's like the Stop Sylvia site where Robert Lancaster documents Sylvia Browne's statements with regards to missing persons and solved cases, and it's almost unbelievable that she does so poorly.

Linda

 

[Rodney]

However, Posner agrees Rodney is correct that Det. Hewitt did discover the tracks before contacting the Navy. See his latest 4-20-2011 update that I have added to: www.gpposner.com/Williston-forum-reply.html.

I appreciate Posner's honesty. However, my point all along has been that Slaughter's timetable is far more logical than Posner's because Posner's does not explain why the Whitehurst, and not the eastern, pit was searched. To be sure, Renier's reading did not identify the Whitehurst pit by name, but it provided several landmarks. Initially, the "prime target for the investigation" was the eastern pit, in part because the police "didn't think there was a track" at Whitehurst. But when Hewitt "located a set of railroad tracks in woods and followed along to shoulder of access road at Whitehurst pits" (note, by the way, that Hewitt used the word "railroad" to modify "tracks"), that convinced Chief Slaughter to search at Whitehurst, rather than at eastern. Then, when that search did not turn up anything of interest, Slaughter spotted the old weigh bridge near Whitehurst. That convinced him that Whitehurst was the location referenced by Renier, and so he called in more experienced Navy divers, who found Lewis's truck and remains.

 

[Sherlock]

In an earlier post I wrote "See his latest 4-20-2011 update that I have added to: www.gpposner.com/Williston-forum-reply.html." That was a sloppy cut and paste from an e-mail sent to me from Gary Posner advising me that he had made an update. I did not and never have posted to his web site as he is the sole author and manages it entirely on his own.

 

[Sherlock]

Noreen Renier: Another psychic vision crumbles

With tonight's posting (4-21-2011) by Gary Posner I believe he offers yet another proof to help decide whether or not Renier's "railroad tracks" vision is a genuine "psychic" ability. And again the accuracy of her vision crumbles. His posting is at the bottom of this link: http://www.gpposner.com/Williston-forum-reply.html

By-the-way is anyone taking a look a Google satellite mapping? There are streams and roadway culverts and authentic bridges all over the area --- but not near where the body was found. So why are we to ignore real bridges but substitute an abandoned truck weigh station just because it seems a better fit in order to match?

And as my own post-note, the producers for the TV series Psychic Detectives apparently changed the name for Hewitt after he died to Sgt. Baxter. Nothing like adding more confusion and making it seem like yet another police official had confirmed her vision. Make believe visions from make-believe police officers.

But Posner has found another reason yet to be disturbed by the "solid accuracy" of her vision. And it too only adds to the trend.

 

[Rodney]

With tonight's posting (4-21-2011) by Gary Posner I believe he offers yet another proof to help decide whether or not Renier's "railroad tracks" vision is a genuine "psychic" ability. And again the accuracy of her vision crumbles. His posting is at the bottom of this link: http://www.gpposner.com/Williston-forum-reply.html

I put little stock in after-the-fact re-creations. Even if someone is totally honest, there is a strong tendency to make herself/himself look better than the way it really was. Unfortunately for skeptics, however, there is the reality in this case that the police were baffled until Noreen Renier came along. Further, Gary Posner now concedes that one of his main arguments against Renier's reading being helpful to police -- that divers were called in before police discovered the railroad tracks near the Whitehurst pit -- was flat out wrong.

 

[Sherlock]

It seems you have yet to read Gary's update this evening. The part concerning Renier's vision of crossing railroad tracks posted tonight shows that if her vision is as she claims the search teams would gone in the opposite direction from where Lewis and his truck were found.

They would have gone literally into the trees. Something I think is quite fitting given her past charades which would have sent search teams into "quicksand" and a over a cliff near a downed aircraft atop a mountain in Massachusetts.

One point of agreement however is your doubts about staged reinactments. I learned this evening that there was a Sgt. Baxter who worked at the Williston Police Department. But it appears in an effort to get around the death of Officer Hewitt some "combination" of events was offered to TV viewers. So essentially don't trust the staged reinactment for accuracy.

And now neither can one apply Renier's vision as it takes you 180 degrees in the wrong direction. Much like her mountain, quick sand, and cliff that didn't exist at the crash site in Massachusetts.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Unfortunately for skeptics, however, there is the reality in this case that the police were baffled until Noreen Renier came along.

Whether that's true or not is still irrelevant as to whether the clues fit or not. They don't.

 

[fls]

I put little stock in after-the-fact re-creations. Even if someone is totally honest, there is a strong tendency to make herself/himself look better than the way it really was.

I agree. Only events documented before the answers are known will be useful in that regard.

Unfortunately for skeptics, however, there is the reality in this case that the police were baffled until Noreen Renier came along.

Well, if they were baffled before the reading, they would also have to baffled after the reading. Based on the interpretations given to the clues after the body was found, the search would entail a radius of 1, 2, 2.1, 4, 4.5, 5, 9, 11.21, 21 or 45 miles, any ditch, crevice, or ravine, any body of water, any metal rail or wood ties, any structure from any material which at one time a vehicle drove on and off, in a direction west, northwest, north, northeast, southwest or southeast from Lewis' house. Renier's reading can only be considered useful if the police were not baffled - that is, if they had their own ideas about some likely places to look.

Further, Gary Posner now concedes that one of his main arguments against Renier's reading being helpful to police -- that divers were called in before police discovered the railroad tracks near the Whitehurst pit -- was flat out wrong.

It doesn't seem to matter. It wasn't like this was a specific, helpful clue in this case.

And it doesn't get around the problem that anytime you do more searching for a missing person you increase the chances they will be found, so Renier should be responsible for many more persons found than just one due to chance (if the numbers she gives for cases are even remotely correct). Maybe the fact that she seems to perform much worse than expected is evidence of psychic abilities ('psi missing').

Linda

 

[Rodney]

Renier's reading can only be considered useful if the police were not baffled - that is, if they had their own ideas about some likely places to look.

Norman Lewis disappeared in March 1994. Noreen Renier was called in to assist in July 1995. Are you saying that the police were still exploring some likely places to look in July 1995 after 16 months of fruitless searching?

 

[Resume]

Norman Lewis disappeared in March 1994. Noreen Renier was called in to assist in July 1995. Are you saying that the police were still exploring some likely places to look in July 1995 after 16 months of fruitless searching?

You might want to give this up. Nothing paranormal to see. Perhaps, perhaps a lucky guess.

 

[TjW]

Norman Lewis disappeared in March 1994. Noreen Renier was called in to assist in July 1995. Are you saying that the police were still exploring some likely places to look in July 1995 after 16 months of fruitless searching?

Are you saying they'd already found the body and were still looking?