Pavel Ziborov application file
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I voted no, but I'll explain why. Firstly, I will say once again that I have been rather less than impressed with the JREF here. Their ability to communicate in a timely manner appears poor a lot of the time, and with Pavel it seems to have been even worse than normal. Excuses such as being busy really do not cut it when the delay is measured in many months. Especially when, as has been noted in other threads, it is not clear exactly what the JREF spend their time doing other than administering the challenge and organising TAMs.
In addition, I am very much less than impressed with Mr Randi's pronouncement, assuming Pavel's account is accurate, that effectively ended any possibility of a test. Mr Randi has not, as far as we know, been involved in the negotiations at any point and certainly has not been following the extensive discussions on the forum. His demand discounts all of that and discounts everything Pavel has actually said about his ability. Demanding that he take a test he has never claimed to be able to pass is simply not fair, and it appears Mr Randi has simply not thought it through before saying this.
It may seem odd that I therefore voted the application should not be reopened. The reason is really quite simple - despite many failings on the JREF's side, I do not believe there is any possibility of Pavel ever agreeing to useful test. Pavel first came here over 2 years ago. Even taking some lengthy delays in communication into account, that's a lot of time. Particularly telling is the fact that Jeff Wagg was willing to call an end to things over a year ago since he considered that it was going nowhere. No matter what you think of the delays since then, there is no doubt that a last chance was given, yet passed with the JREF continuing to negotiate anyway.
Additionally, in that time Pavel's claim has changed several times, sometimes in contradictory ways. He first claimed telepathy using another person to send him pictures, but he now claims to see the future and his proposed tests include no other people. He has flat out contradicted himself by claiming both Zener cards and photographs are easier to see than each other, each time after failing to achieve what he expected in un-blinded self-tests. Perhaps most importantly, he remains entirely unable to state what he believes his accuracy actually is, and appears unwilling to test it in any systematic manner.
Given that, I don't see how any test could take place. Pavel cannot say exactly what he can do or how well he can do it. Even were the JREF to drop everything and give him all the help he could possibly require, any test that ensued would inevitably be one Pavel had been led to and accepted, rather than one actually testing what he originally believed he could do. Such a test would be a waste of everyone's time and resources, and would not prove anything in the slightest.
In addition, I am very much less than impressed with Mr Randi's pronouncement, assuming Pavel's account is accurate, that effectively ended any possibility of a test. Mr Randi has not, as far as we know, been involved in the negotiations at any point and certainly has not been following the extensive discussions on the forum. His demand discounts all of that and discounts everything Pavel has actually said about his ability. Demanding that he take a test he has never claimed to be able to pass is simply not fair, and it appears Mr Randi has simply not thought it through before saying this.
It may seem odd that I therefore voted the application should not be reopened. The reason is really quite simple - despite many failings on the JREF's side, I do not believe there is any possibility of Pavel ever agreeing to useful test. Pavel first came here over 2 years ago. Even taking some lengthy delays in communication into account, that's a lot of time. Particularly telling is the fact that Jeff Wagg was willing to call an end to things over a year ago since he considered that it was going nowhere. No matter what you think of the delays since then, there is no doubt that a last chance was given, yet passed with the JREF continuing to negotiate anyway.
Additionally, in that time Pavel's claim has changed several times, sometimes in contradictory ways. He first claimed telepathy using another person to send him pictures, but he now claims to see the future and his proposed tests include no other people. He has flat out contradicted himself by claiming both Zener cards and photographs are easier to see than each other, each time after failing to achieve what he expected in un-blinded self-tests. Perhaps most importantly, he remains entirely unable to state what he believes his accuracy actually is, and appears unwilling to test it in any systematic manner.
Given that, I don't see how any test could take place. Pavel cannot say exactly what he can do or how well he can do it. Even were the JREF to drop everything and give him all the help he could possibly require, any test that ensued would inevitably be one Pavel had been led to and accepted, rather than one actually testing what he originally believed he could do. Such a test would be a waste of everyone's time and resources, and would not prove anything in the slightest.
jsfisher
ETcorngods survivor
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I voted "yes", but it needs to be qualified. The JREF should reopen his file if and only if Pavel clearly articulates his claim and drafts an improved protocol addressing whatever concerns the JREF has communicated to him.
On the other hand, it is not at all clear the JREF has acted strictly honorably in all of this. I cannot condemn the JREF at this point, mostly because I only have Pavel's point of view to go on. I would very much like to hear from the JREF about what it sees as the chronology of the negotiations and the remaining impediments.
On the other hand, it is not at all clear the JREF has acted strictly honorably in all of this. I cannot condemn the JREF at this point, mostly because I only have Pavel's point of view to go on. I would very much like to hear from the JREF about what it sees as the chronology of the negotiations and the remaining impediments.
I like your points, Cuddles and jsfisher.
If I could have my personal way, I would have some kind of arbitration. Let me be the arbitrator in this example.
(Please note that this would only be the first step of the walk to an agreement, as I am very sure both sides have some wiggle room as well as an interest to see this through to a test.
Note to Pavel: This is based firmly on the assumption that you actually want to get tested. There are parts in me that indicate even more firmly you want to do anything but get tested properly.)
The JREF would have to score qualified personnel for a test which could possibly but not necessarily run eight hours on one day.
They would also be required to allow at least one observer from Pavel's side to be present at all times.
And of course they would have to brace for a long test, since their rules state clearly they will test an applicant's claim.
Pavel would have to name three specific numbers: Trials, success rate and time.
And he would have to propose a protocol with self-designed and specific figures of how the test would be run: Number of trials to be done in a sequence, break time, results revealed when. Adhering to the well-discussed statistical standards as well as to the limits of the JREF Challenge.
And, Pavel: Unless you are expecting a child shortly, there should be nothing more important on your agenda right now than to succeed in the JREF One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge.
If I could have another wish, I would name Rodney as Pavel's second for the purpose of this negotiation.
Both parties should remember this: We want a reasonable test. Not a 30-minute-get-in-get-out and not a two-days-300-photo-extravaganza.
Get crackin'.
If I could have my personal way, I would have some kind of arbitration. Let me be the arbitrator in this example.
(Please note that this would only be the first step of the walk to an agreement, as I am very sure both sides have some wiggle room as well as an interest to see this through to a test.
Note to Pavel: This is based firmly on the assumption that you actually want to get tested. There are parts in me that indicate even more firmly you want to do anything but get tested properly.)
The JREF would have to score qualified personnel for a test which could possibly but not necessarily run eight hours on one day.
They would also be required to allow at least one observer from Pavel's side to be present at all times.
And of course they would have to brace for a long test, since their rules state clearly they will test an applicant's claim.
Pavel would have to name three specific numbers: Trials, success rate and time.
And he would have to propose a protocol with self-designed and specific figures of how the test would be run: Number of trials to be done in a sequence, break time, results revealed when. Adhering to the well-discussed statistical standards as well as to the limits of the JREF Challenge.
And, Pavel: Unless you are expecting a child shortly, there should be nothing more important on your agenda right now than to succeed in the JREF One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge.
If I could have another wish, I would name Rodney as Pavel's second for the purpose of this negotiation.
Both parties should remember this: We want a reasonable test. Not a 30-minute-get-in-get-out and not a two-days-300-photo-extravaganza.
Get crackin'.
I voted no. On reading the last posted version of the protocol I was still left confused by the flummery and complexity of what should be a very simple test. It doesn't seem ready for prime time.
Pavel can reapply in one year (provided no-one else wins in that time). Perhaps he will have developed a clearer protocol by then.
Pavel can reapply in one year (provided no-one else wins in that time). Perhaps he will have developed a clearer protocol by then.
I voted no. One must remember that the JREF is under no obligation to accept any application from anybody. There's no profit in dealing with applicants, so the only exchange for JREF time is conceivably education. Pavel's application ceased to be educational quite a ways back. The remaining things to be learned from dealing with him can happen on this forum without any JREF time required.
Furthermore, the challenge is about paranormal claims. We can quibble over the exact meaning of paranormal, but I think we all agree that it means a claim where there is no reasonable chance of a normal explanation. Pavel's claim is 60% accuracy when 50% is expected. Stated another way, Pavel is saying that 5% to 10% of the time he can actually do something. This makes me immediately suspicious that he's developed a barely effective way of exploiting the test conditions. Would you put up $1M if you suspected that?
Assuming Pavel's not running a scam, then it's abundantly clear that he is sadly mistaken about having any ability at all. It's one thing if a person really thinks they can do something all or nearly all of the time. It's quite another to entertain someone's wishful thinking that they have some sort of ability that barely works at all.
Combine all that with a claim that seems to keep changing and protocols that repeatedly need tweaking, and it's easy to see why the JREF pulled the plug. Nothing is stopping Pavel from setting up his own test and getting some volunteers from the university to run it. There's just no bang for the buck as far as the JREF is concerned.
Furthermore, the challenge is about paranormal claims. We can quibble over the exact meaning of paranormal, but I think we all agree that it means a claim where there is no reasonable chance of a normal explanation. Pavel's claim is 60% accuracy when 50% is expected. Stated another way, Pavel is saying that 5% to 10% of the time he can actually do something. This makes me immediately suspicious that he's developed a barely effective way of exploiting the test conditions. Would you put up $1M if you suspected that?
Assuming Pavel's not running a scam, then it's abundantly clear that he is sadly mistaken about having any ability at all. It's one thing if a person really thinks they can do something all or nearly all of the time. It's quite another to entertain someone's wishful thinking that they have some sort of ability that barely works at all.
Combine all that with a claim that seems to keep changing and protocols that repeatedly need tweaking, and it's easy to see why the JREF pulled the plug. Nothing is stopping Pavel from setting up his own test and getting some volunteers from the university to run it. There's just no bang for the buck as far as the JREF is concerned.
Andrew Wiggin
Master Poster
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I vote no. My impression from reading the various threads is that Pavel was hoping to find a way to get a protocol accepted that he had a fair chance of beating without paranormal abilities. The occasional good run DOES happen, even by chance, and the chances of winning the million are a lot better than the chances of winning a million by playing the lottery. All you have to do is hypothesize that you are better at obfuscating some things that manipulate chance than the various reviewers are at finding them. It really did look to me like he was hoping at some points to make use of the 'monty hall paradox' with his various photographs and rearrangements. It should be so simple to devise a protocol for this, so when a simple protocol doesn't materialize, and endless complications and caveats are added on over years of discussion, then something's rotten.
A
A
EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
I voted yes, but only because of the curt response from JREF after all this time, I still believe that the protocol could be reduced to 50 trials in order to satisfy both parties' objections.
That said, I've started out contributing to Pavel's discussions with an eye to helping with hammering out a protocol on the opinion that he was genuine, I now think that he's attempting play the odds (his opening post indicated such). I am merely unsure whether this is a deliberate ploy or his inability to grasp numbers.
That said, I've started out contributing to Pavel's discussions with an eye to helping with hammering out a protocol on the opinion that he was genuine, I now think that he's attempting play the odds (his opening post indicated such). I am merely unsure whether this is a deliberate ploy or his inability to grasp numbers.
He can do that in a year. In the meantime he can take the IIG $50K challenge.
I don't see the big deal.
When it comes to claims that must be subjected to statistical analysis, that challenge is just as vague as the JREF Challenge about defining what has to be accomplished to win the $50K:
"For claims that have a statistical possibility of having a positive result by chance alone, the Testing Protocol Agreement will require sufficient multiple trials to ensure the result cannot be accounted for by chance. In such a case, a single 'test' will be considered to consist of as many repetitive trials as determined necessary."
EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
Ignore him. This is just a constant troll by Rodney on the subject. His claim is that the MDC is a cheat because the required odds (of 1:1,000, 10,000 or 1,000,000) are not explicitly stated in the rules, therefore JREF is able to cheat applicants out of fair processing of their application. This has been discussed with him in multiple threads over years.
It will most certainly derail this thread further if you indulge his pet troll subject.
Discussed, but with no satisfactory explanation as to why the JREF doesn't specify what the odds standard is.
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Surely it's obvious by now? It provides one more point of contention, the blame for which can eventually be laid at the feet of the claimant. If you don't have something to argue over, it might look like rejection or acceptance is capricious.
Linda
Klimax
NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ)
Because for some claims odds are not needed(levitation) or odds can be less and still be considered paranormal. It allows JREF some flexibility...
This 'flexibility' works against the JREF in some ways (in addition to the one I mentioned earlier
). If there were a standard (and there's no reason there couldn't be for guessing claims, which many of them are), it would avoid the downward drift that we might start to see from other tests held at lower odds (like the Carina Landin test). If the JREF allows for lower odds for one claimant, another claimant could reasonably ask for the same odds. And allowing for differences that arise from technical issues, those odds may end up lower still, etc., etc.Linda
