Our Success in Iraq and What it Means

[Puppycow]

There is no doubt that Bush’s “Surge” in Iraq has been a success in many respects, particularly in reducing the level of violence and getting the war off of the front pages of newspapers. But what does this "success" amount to strategically? Andrew J. Bacevich writes in the Washington Post:

The United States has acquired a ramshackle, ungovernable and unresponsive dependency that is incapable of securing its own borders or managing its own affairs.

It is a money pit. It is worse than that, but let’s stop to consider the money for starters.

[T]o fund the war, the Pentagon is burning through somewhere between $2 billion and $3 billion per week.

That’s roughly $2,000 dollars a year for your average American family of four, money that could fund your retirement savings, pay for your kids’ college expenses or purchase medical insurance. Instead, that money is going to pay Sunni and Shiite Iraqis to maintain security in their own neighborhoods and not shoot at Americans.

So, yeah, we “won,” in a sense, but the prize isn’t anything we should really want to own. Not every prize has positive value. If Haiti offered to give up its own sovereignty and become a colony of the US, would it be in our interests to accept that offer? Maybe as a favor to them if they promised to behave themselves and make it easy for us, but certainly not for our own sake. It would be acquiring “a ramshackle, ungovernable and unresponsive dependency that is incapable of securing its own borders or managing its own affairs.”

It almost makes me want to go join the Ron Paul Revolution*.

(*Not really, but Bush is giving isolationism a good name, if you ask me.)

 

[Texas]

It is a money pit. It is worse than that, but let’s stop to consider the money for starters.


That’s roughly $2,000 dollars a year for your average American family of four, money that could fund your retirement savings, pay for your kids’ college expenses or purchase medical insurance. Instead, that money is going to pay Sunni and Shiite Iraqis to maintain security in their own neighborhoods and not shoot at Americans.

So, yeah, we “won,” in a sense, but the prize isn’t anything we should really want to own. Not every prize has positive value. If Haiti offered to give up its own sovereignty and become a colony of the US, would it be in our interests to accept that offer? Maybe as a favor to them if they promised to behave themselves and make it easy for us, but certainly not for our own sake. It would be acquiring “a ramshackle, ungovernable and unresponsive dependency that is incapable of securing its own borders or managing its own affairs.”

It almost makes me want to go join the Ron Paul Revolution*.

(*Not really, but Bush is giving isolationism a good name, if you ask me.)

Well don't get too carried away. You still have the 2k to put into your retirement plan etc. since, to my knowledge, no one is sending out bills to all of us yet. Yes military campaigns are very expensive. We spend billions per day all over the world in areas that haven't seen a war in 50 years.

 

[corplinx]

The big thing is whether or not the reduction in violence leads to the foundations of real peace.

There was peace in soviet russia but not the kind of peace you want. Filling bagdad with troops is just violence reduction, not peace.

 

[Puppycow]

Well don't get too carried away. You still have the 2k to put into your retirement plan etc. since, to my knowledge, no one is sending out bills to all of us yet.

Even if you never get "a bill," somebody ends up paying for it eventually. The immediate payers for the war are buyers of bonds, but then taxpayers have to pay the interest on those bonds, and the money can't be used to fix potholes or fund NASA, or secure our border or any number of other things.

Yes military campaigns are very expensive. We spend billions per day all over the world in areas that haven't seen a war in 50 years.

I'm not too crazy about that either.

 

[Puppycow]

The big thing is whether or not the reduction in violence leads to the foundations of real peace.

And, as we approach the end of the 5th year of occupation, how long are we prepared to wait, and how much are we prepared to pay (in lives as well as treasure) to find out the answer to that question?

 

[Texas]

Even if you never get "a bill," somebody ends up paying for it eventually. The immediate payers for the war are buyers of bonds, but then taxpayers have to pay the interest on those bonds, and the money can't be used to fix potholes or fund NASA, or secure our border or any number of other things.
I'm not too crazy about that either.

Funny you mention NASA since the mantra used to be, "why spend all of that money going into space when it could be spent on......" We have not "lost" the money we spent in Iraq until we declare defeat and go home. We may have to do just that BUT we are not there yet. As to the bonds. Just last week, foreigners bought 90 billion bucks worth of treasuries so they are picking up a hefty load of our debt even with the weak dollar and I just noticed on the futures market the dollar is 1% higher just tonight. There are a lot of things about the Iraq war to be discussed but the economics is the weakest argument against it since war is many times good for the economy for good or ill.

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

Funny you mention NASA since the mantra used to be, "why spend all of that money going into space when it could be spent on......" We have not "lost" the money we spent in Iraq until we declare defeat and go home. We may have to do just that BUT we are not there yet. As to the bonds. Just last week, foreigners bought 90 billion bucks worth of treasuries so they are picking up a hefty load of our debt even with the weak dollar and I just noticed on the futures market the dollar is 1% higher just tonight. There are a lot of things about the Iraq war to be discussed but the economics is the weakest argument against it since war is many times good for the economy for good or ill.

Is that supposed to be a good thing?

NASA leads to technological innovations, while the war in Iraq...

I don't like saying "losing" or "winning" the war, it is a lot more complicated than that. Is it a win if we go into a country based on false information, damage our alliances, spend trillions of dollars, lose thousands of soldiers, lose thousands of Iraqis, but get them to form a stable enough government that we can move out most of the troops?

 

[HereticHulk]

First let's establish what 'success' is in Iraq?

The surge has not worked! At all! Where did anyone hear the surge has been a success?

Iraq is headed towards the same thing it was before we invaded.

That is, ethnically cleansed communities that will most likely end up being ruled by some heavy handed dictator/President.

 

[Texas]

Is that supposed to be a good thing?

NASA leads to technological innovations, while the war in Iraq...

I don't like saying "losing" or "winning" the war, it is a lot more complicated than that. Is it a win if we go into a country based on false information, damage our alliances, spend trillions of dollars, lose thousands of soldiers, lose thousands of Iraqis, but get them to form a stable enough government that we can move out most of the troops?

Well all of your points are nothing more than hyperbole. We have not spent "trillions" of dollars and yes almost 4000 military deaths are terrible, but that is about the total of the first half of D-Day. Yes thousands of Iraqis have died as a result of the insurgency that is now being effectively put-down. The Shia just had their annual celebration of atonement and for the 1st time in 5 years there was not large scale bombing or blood shed other their own from self-flagellation. The Sunni are being invited back into the electoral process that starts to ramp up this year ahead of their elections in 2009. We are still in KOSOVO and their political situation is even worse than Iraq. I don't know how this will turn out but I do know that you don't fold your hand when you may have drawn a winner. The key to wining or losing is going to be the reconciliation of the Sunni and Shia and that at least has improved in the last 2 months.

 

[corplinx]

And, as we approach the end of the 5th year of occupation, how long are we prepared to wait, and how much are we prepared to pay (in lives as well as treasure) to find out the answer to that question?

I'm not sure how we valuate having an infant republic in that region. That could become a Turkey when it matures. That has so many side effects in that region that it is hard to compute. I am pretty sure that 5 years and the lives and billions spent so far is probably inexpensive compared to the long lasting effects it could have on regional peace.

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

Well all of your points are nothing more than hyperbole. We have not spent "trillions" of dollars and yes almost 4000 military deaths are terrible, but that is about the total of the first half of D-Day. Yes thousands of Iraqis have died as a result of the insurgency that is now being effectively put-down. The Shia just had their annual celebration of atonement and for the 1st time in 5 years there was not large scale bombing or blood shed other their own from self-flagellation. The Sunni are being invited back into the electoral process that starts to ramp up this year ahead of their elections in 2009. We are still in KOSOVO and their political situation is even worse than Iraq. I don't know how this will turn out but I do know that you don't fold your hand when you may have drawn a winner. The key to wining or losing is going to be the reconciliation of the Sunni and Shia and that at least has improved in the last 2 months.

LOL, the violence caused by the war is down to the levels that it was at two years ago. Victory !

So are you saying that we weren't led in with false information? This isn't true? Our relations weren't damaged?

Again, after all that why should you declare that we are "winning" when all we have is the hope that they might form a stable government?

 

[Texas]

First let's establish what 'success' is in Iraq?

The surge has not worked! At all! Where did anyone hear the surge has been a success?

.

What is your expertise that allows you to make such a definitive statement? It has been about 6 months since being put into place and the 6 month casualty figures both for the military and civilians do show a dramatic decrease.

 

[Texas]

LOL, the violence caused by the war is down to the levels that it was at two years ago. Victory !

So are you saying that we weren't led in with false information? This isn't true? Our relations weren't damaged?

Again, after all that why should you declare that we are "winning" when all we have is the hope that they might form a stable government?

So you would have us leave and allow the slaughter to continue? I can promise you this, Even if Kucinich is elected in November, the Democrats in congress will not allow themselves to be blamed for that.

 

[Texas]

So are you saying that we weren't led in with false information? This isn't true? Our relations weren't damaged?

?

Do you believe the new NIE assessment of the Iranian nuclear program?

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

So you would have us leave and allow the slaughter to continue? I can promise you this, Even if Kucinich is elected in November, the Democrats in congress will not allow themselves to be blamed for that.

What does that have to do with anything?

Do you believe the new NIE assessment of the Iranian nuclear program?

Do you like non sequitors?

 

[Texas]

What does that have to do with anything?



Do you like non sequitors?

No I am only probing your intellectual honesty. Do you agree that the new NIE on Iran's lack of a nuclear weapons program is accurate? This is in relation to your assertion that we invaded Iraq based on false intelligence.

 

[Texas]

Well the Asian markets a closed so I am hitting the sack. Thanks for discussion. The futures are pointing to a bloodbath on Tuesday so if you play the market, buckle up it is going to be a wild ride.

 

[HereticHulk]

What is your expertise that allows you to make such a definitive statement? It has been about 6 months since being put into place and the 6 month casualty figures both for the military and civilians do show a dramatic decrease.

Dude, the violence is down in certain areas because they've been ethnically cleansed. Dec 2007 was the deadliest month since the occupation began.

What expertise do you have?

 

[Upchurch]

Do you agree that the new NIE on Iran's lack of a nuclear weapons program is accurate? This is in relation to your assertion that we invaded Iraq based on false intelligence.

The only way this could be relevant is if the US Intelligence community is currently working under the same conditions and configuration it was when it produced the intelligence on Iraq.

I'll fully admit that I haven't followed it too closely. I know there certainly were calls to reform the Intelligence community in the last 5-ish years. I don't know what has actually been accomplished.

Are we dealing with the same US Intelligence now as we were then?

 

[Earthborn]

Just last week, foreigners bought 90 billion bucks worth of treasuries so they are picking up a hefty load of our debt

People lending you money are not helping to decrease your debt, they are helping to increase it.