Split Thread Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla

[dirtywick]

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...utors-focus-securities-wire-fraud-2024-05-08/

opening a fraud investigation into the fsd situation

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

I'm afraid that didn't help at all, [emoji53]. I really don't get the abstractions of share trading. Going short is about my limit. [emoji15]

What it means is that professionals who trade on the futures market are of the opinion that Tesla is massively overvalued and is due to have a big stock price correction.

While futures trading is more obviously gambling than other forms of stock market trading professional traders generally are well read on the companies they're betting on and do understand financials.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

PS I don't remember if Neuralink has its own thread but it turns out that the first chip in a human has at least partially detached and the company are being very coy about the details. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/may/09/neuralink-brain-chip-implant

 

[The Don]

What it means is that professionals who trade on the futures market are of the opinion that Tesla is massively overvalued and is due to have a big stock price correction.

While futures trading is more obviously gambling than other forms of stock market trading professional traders generally are well read on the companies they're betting on and do understand financials.

The professionals who trade in the futures market are doing so with our money, not theirs and analysis of their performance shows that they do no better than chance so the highlighted doesn't necessarily mean anything significant.

As with all stocks, the primary driver of price is market sentiment. For sure, well established companies in mature markets have assets, profits and other objective measures that can be used to establish a value for the company but even then the market is mostly looking at future prospects. Sentiment is subjective.

I thought Bitcoin was overvalued at $1 o) so I'm poorly placed to assess the value of Tesla shares. They're worth what the market considers them to be worth - the expected correction may never come or may be so far in the future that there are still long term capital gains to be made.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

The professionals who trade in the futures market are doing so with our money, not theirs and analysis of their performance shows that they do no better than chance so the highlighted doesn't necessarily mean anything significant.

As with all stocks, the primary driver of price is market sentiment. For sure, well established companies in mature markets have assets, profits and other objective measures that can be used to establish a value for the company but even then the market is mostly looking at future prospects. Sentiment is subjective.

I thought Bitcoin was overvalued at $1 o) so I'm poorly placed to assess the value of Tesla shares. They're worth what the market considers them to be worth - the expected correction may never come or may be so far in the future that there are still long term capital gains to be made.

In the terms of Tesla share price direction and company performance are good indicators that if the shares were valued properly they'd be much lower than they are. On bitcoin I would suggest that any price over $.000001 would because of serious market manipulation by the few people who own significant amounts of the stuff.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Bitcoin is valuable for illegal purposes.

 

[Darat]

The professionals who trade in the futures market are doing so with our money, not theirs and analysis of their performance shows that they do no better than chance so the highlighted doesn't necessarily mean anything significant.

As with all stocks, the primary driver of price is market sentiment. For sure, well established companies in mature markets have assets, profits and other objective measures that can be used to establish a value for the company but even then the market is mostly looking at future prospects. Sentiment is subjective.

I thought Bitcoin was overvalued at $1 o) so I'm poorly placed to assess the value of Tesla shares. They're worth what the market considers them to be worth - the expected correction may never come or may be so far in the future that there are still long term capital gains to be made.

There were more than a few of us that if we'd listened to the harbinger of the news about Bitcoin would be sitting on a few hundred thousand for nothing more than a tenner risked!

 

[Fast Eddie B]

…if the shares were valued properly…

Again, the free market determines when a share is “valued properly”.

$171.97 is the “proper value” of a share of Tesla at this moment. When the markets open today Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” will determine that value going forward.

It may seem simplistic, but it can be liberating when one starts to view it that way.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Bitcoin is valuable for illegal purposes.

Not really, the fact that the blockchain is public makes transfers easily traceable.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Again, the free market determines when a share is “valued properly”.

$171.97 is the “proper value” of a share of Tesla at this moment. When the markets open today Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” will determine that value going forward.

It may seem simplistic, but it can be liberating when one starts to view it that way.

Given that the stock market (there are no real free markets) is run on a completely irrational basis, stock are only properly valued randomly and very occasionally.

 

[Aridas]

PS I don't remember if Neuralink has its own thread but it turns out that the first chip in a human has at least partially detached and the company are being very coy about the details. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/may/09/neuralink-brain-chip-implant

Unfortunate. Given that it's the first one in a human, though, it's not even remotely a surprise.

Admittedly, I still have hopes for Neuralink to help quadriplegic patients and others who are similarly disabled.

 

[The Don]

Given that the stock market (there are no real free markets) is run on a completely irrational basis, stock are only properly valued randomly and very occasionally.

What is a proper valuation if not the value that the market puts on it ?

How do you propose to value comparatively intangible things like goodwill, brand value, pipeline or future products and services ?

 

[Fast Eddie B]

Given that the stock market (there are no real free markets) is run on a completely irrational basis, stock are only properly valued randomly and very occasionally.

Maybe. But I’ve not seen a way of “valuing” stocks better than the market.

At any point, roughly half of traders will see a stock as “overvalued” and sell, while the other half see it as “undervalued” and buy. Which is exactly what makes a market.

 

[dirtywick]

Admittedly, I still have hopes for Neuralink to help quadriplegic patients and others who are similarly disabled.

i think it's fair to hope most of these musk run companies aren't just tech companies defrauding people. but not being capable of what they say they can do is an increasingly common occurrence.

same goes with the market valuation. is musk above market manipulation? of course not, he's done it before plenty of times. is tesla committing fraud? idk, but they're under investigation for it. if so, how can it be valued fairly?

 

[theprestige]

Given that the stock market (there are no real free markets) is run on a completely irrational basis, stock are only properly valued randomly and very occasionally.

What's the proper way to value a share in a Tesla, or SpaceX?

 

[plague311]

Admittedly, I still have hopes for Neuralink to help quadriplegic patients and others who are similarly disabled.

The good news is there are other companies that are doing this work better, and with more success. Here's a good article about it:

In March 2023, bioelectric medicine researchers, surgeons, and engineers at Northwell’s Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research successfully enabled a man to move and feel with his paralyzed arm and hand.

In their novel clinical trial, the team performed a 15-hour open-brain surgery to restore communication between the body and brain of Keith Thomas of Massapequa, who has been living with paralysis since 2020.

Assuredly Neurolink nor Musk will be the ones to solve the problem. They'll just be the Johnny-Come-Lately by the time they get even close to where these other companies and studies are at.

 

[jeremyp]

What's the proper way to value a share in a Tesla, or SpaceX?

If you are seeking to buy shares in Tesla and you want to know if you are paying a fair price, the right thing to do would be to analyse its financials and products and assets and try to identify any trends. From there you can make an educated guess as to what your return on your investment will be.

SpaceX is more difficult because it is not publicly traded which means you don't have all the information that you need to understand how it is doing and what its prospects are. Fortunately, it is not publicly traded, so you don't have the option of buying SpaceX shares.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

If you are seeking to buy shares in Tesla and you want to know if you are paying a fair price, the right thing to do would be to analyse its financials and products and assets and try to identify any trends. From there you can make an educated guess as to what your return on your investment will be.

Sounds reasonable.

But there’s a fair amount of evidence that investment professionals armed with all that information still on a whole do no better than chance.

My “educated guesses” seem to have paid off in the long run. But my pride in that accomplishment has been tempered by reading this book:

Highly recommended.

 

[theprestige]

educated guess as to what your return on your investment will be.

Exactly. You're making your best estimate of the potential of the company, and deciding how much you're willing to pay for a piece of that estimated potential.

In other words, the proper value of a share is whatever price the buyers and sellers of those shares are buying and selling those shares for. There is no higher source of valuation, for shares. The share price at market is by definition the proper value of the share. The market is the proper method for determining a share's value.

SpaceX is more difficult because it is not publicly traded which means you don't have all the information that you need to understand how it is doing and what its prospects are. Fortunately, it is not publicly traded, so you don't have the option of buying SpaceX shares.

Google bought some 8% of SpaceX. Presumably they were satisfied with the due diligence they were able to do.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Exactly - the value of a company is decided by handful of investment firms that have no need for fundamentals.

As long as there is nothing more Hip than Tesla in the US, it will keep its evaluation despite mostly being a meme Stock at this point.

Investors are not betting on Tesla, they are betting on the US government to tariff all competitors out of the market.