Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 9

[The Don]

The elusive collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine seems no closer.

Meanwhile according to the map labels on the latest ISW update:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-21-2024

• Geolocated footage posted on January 20 indicates that Russian forces captured Krokhmalne
• A Russian source claimed on January 21 that Russian forces advanced to the outskirts of Berestove
• Russian sources claimed on January 18 that Russian forces captured Vesele
• Geolocated footage posted on January 18 indicates that Russian forces advanced into Northern Bohdanivka
• Geolocated footage posted on January 20 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Bakhmut
• Russian sources claimed on January 20 that Russian forces advanced south of Avdiivka
• Geolocated footage posted on January 21 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Avdiivka
• Geolocated footage posted on January 21 indicates that Russian forces advanced into southwestern Avdiivka
• Geolocated footage posted on January 17 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Nevelske
• Geolocated footage posted on January 20 indicates that Russian forces advanced southeast of Urozhaine
• Geolocated footage posted on January 18 indicates that Russian forces advanced southeast of Rivnopil

Even discounting Russian claims and relying solely on geolocated information, Russian advances seem to be continuing on a number of fronts with no corresponding Ukrainian advances.

Yes, Russian advances are made at considerable cost in men and materiel, but there's no prospect of them stopping any time soon.

 

[Lplus]

The elusive collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine seems no closer.

Meanwhile according to the map labels on the latest ISW update:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-21-2024

• Geolocated footage posted on January 20 indicates that Russian forces captured Krokhmalne
• A Russian source claimed on January 21 that Russian forces advanced to the outskirts of Berestove
• Russian sources claimed on January 18 that Russian forces captured Vesele
• Geolocated footage posted on January 18 indicates that Russian forces advanced into Northern Bohdanivka
• Geolocated footage posted on January 20 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Bakhmut
• Russian sources claimed on January 20 that Russian forces advanced south of Avdiivka
• Geolocated footage posted on January 21 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Avdiivka
• Geolocated footage posted on January 21 indicates that Russian forces advanced into southwestern Avdiivka
• Geolocated footage posted on January 17 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Nevelske
• Geolocated footage posted on January 20 indicates that Russian forces advanced southeast of Urozhaine
• Geolocated footage posted on January 18 indicates that Russian forces advanced southeast of Rivnopil

Even discounting Russian claims and relying solely on geolocated information, Russian advances seem to be continuing on a number of fronts with no corresponding Ukrainian advances.

Yes, Russian advances are made at considerable cost in men and materiel, but there's no prospect of them stopping any time soon.

So when do you think they'll reach the Polish border?

 

[icerat]

Even discounting Russian claims and relying solely on geolocated information, Russian advances seem to be continuing on a number of fronts with no corresponding Ukrainian advances

Ukraine announced some time ago they were primarily maintaining a defensive posture for winter and focused on degrading Russian capabilities - so don't expect much in the way of Ukrainian advances.

Pretty much nothing on that list of "advances" has any real strategic importance, and the costs for Russia are enormous.

 

[jeremyp]

Ukraine announced some time ago they were primarily maintaining a defensive posture for winter and focused on degrading Russian capabilities - so don't expect much in the way of Ukrainian advances.

Pretty much nothing on that list of "advances" has any real strategic importance, and the costs for Russia are enormous.

It's all ground that will have to be retaken to get the Russians out of Ukraine, probably also at high cost.

 

[icerat]

It's all ground that will have to be retaken to get the Russians out of Ukraine, probably also at high cost.

Not necessarily. Russia is grinding. Ukraine is exchanging literally a few km2 of land for thousands of dead Russian soldiers and hundreds of destroyed vehicles and is now significantly expanding attacks on support infrastructure in Russia itself.

Ukraine is suffering too of course, but nothing like Russia is. This will eventually have an effect - indeed probably already is, based on the winter collapse of a lot of Russian infrastructure - too many plumbers and electricians sent to the front instead of doing their jobs.

I believe Ukraine is gearing up to try a proper counter-offensive in the future. The so-called summer counter-offensive wasn't much of one. I've seen reports no more than about 10% of the western equipment was committed to it. Lets not forget much of the promised gear, even from a year ago, still hadn't even arrived in Ukraine.

My guess is that they are at a minimum waiting to have themselves a decent air force again. When that is, is anybody's guess. In the meantime the problem is they have to manage perceptions as well as reality. Any Russian success is "Ukraine is losing" and any Ukrainian success is "Ukraine failed to achieve a breakthrough". That leads to declining western support.

But the goal I assume is a significant breakthrough somewhere, ala the Kharkiv/Kherson offensives of 2022, leading to a collapse of Russian defences. That leads to large amounts of territory being retaken without the high cost.

We also need to remember that Ukraine took back control of a significant amount of the black sea in 2023. That's never shown in the control of terrain maps and they should get a lot more credit for it.

 

[Mike!]

Not necessarily. Russia is grinding. Ukraine is exchanging literally a few km2 of land for thousands of dead Russian soldiers and hundreds of destroyed vehicles and is now significantly expanding attacks on support infrastructure in Russia itself.

Ukraine is suffering too of course, but nothing like Russia is. This will eventually have an effect - indeed probably already is, based on the winter collapse of a lot of Russian infrastructure - too many plumbers and electricians sent to the front instead of doing their jobs.

I believe Ukraine is gearing up to try a proper counter-offensive in the future. The so-called summer counter-offensive wasn't much of one. I've seen reports no more than about 10% of the western equipment was committed to it. Lets not forget much of the promised gear, even from a year ago, still hadn't even arrived in Ukraine.

My guess is that they are at a minimum waiting to have themselves a decent air force again. When that is, is anybody's guess. In the meantime the problem is they have to manage perceptions as well as reality. Any Russian success is "Ukraine is losing" and any Ukrainian success is "Ukraine failed to achieve a breakthrough". That leads to declining western support.

But the goal I assume is a significant breakthrough somewhere, ala the Kharkiv/Kherson offensives of 2022, leading to a collapse of Russian defences. That leads to large amounts of territory being retaken without the high cost.

We also need to remember that Ukraine took back control of a significant amount of the black sea in 2023. That's never shown in the control of terrain maps and they should get a lot more credit for it.

This is all the more impressive when you take into account, Ukraine doesn't have a Navy.
This is also important on a larger perspective. Ukraine makes plans and strikes that result in the significant loss of Russian men and material, with little to no cost in Ukrainian manpower, whenever possible.
Meanwhile Russia throws thousands of men and material to claw back some insignificant clump of dirt.

 

[The Don]

So when do you think they'll reach the Polish border?

Never, but they may end up hanging onto much of what they currently occupy.

 

[Trebuchet]

A couple of videos of Ukrainian attacks inside Russia proper yesterday, including a Baltic oil terminal near St Petersburg burning. 900km from Ukraine!


And a tank factory:

 

[theprestige]

My recent favorite is two partisans in Crimea poisoning a number of Russian soldiers, getting into a shootout with security forces, killing some of them, and evading capture thereafter.

 

[Doubt]

Never, but they may end up hanging onto much of what they currently occupy.

You might want to take a closer look at how the first world war ended. That is the most relevant to the current situation unless the a more mobile battlefield situation develops.

Warfare for the last 100+ years has been less a matter of who controls territory and more a matter of if an army can sustain combat. The Russians capabilities have been gradually degraded. They started off trying to fight like a modern army and are slowly seeing their ability degraded to the point where the ground forces are fighting like it is the late 19th century.

Human wave attacks are not the move of an army that is going to win. That is an army that is in denial of their reality.

 

[gabeygoat]

My recent favorite is two partisans in Crimea poisoning a number of Russian soldiers, getting into a shootout with security forces, killing some of them, and evading capture thereafter.

Woah! sounds like a movie in the making.

 

[a_unique_person]

Ukraine has limited artillery shells and other supplies. Without them they cannot do the impossible and stop the Russians.

Meanwhile in Russia the poorer people are freezing to death as the infrastructure crumbles due to the focus on the invasion.

Putin is weakened even if he wins. Small consolation for the Ukrainians.

 

[8enotto]

Russian oil and gas terminals are under fire. Hitting Putin in the already thin wallet.

 

[The Don]

You might want to take a closer look at how the first world war ended. That is the most relevant to the current situation unless the a more mobile battlefield situation develops.

Warfare for the last 100+ years has been less a matter of who controls territory and more a matter of if an army can sustain combat. The Russians capabilities have been gradually degraded. They started off trying to fight like a modern army and are slowly seeing their ability degraded to the point where the ground forces are fighting like it is the late 19th century.

Human wave attacks are not the move of an army that is going to win. That is an army that is in denial of their reality.

A major factor in the ending of the first world war was the late introduction of a superpower, the US, providing hundreds of thousands of men and enormous industrial muscle.

 

[icerat]

Human wave attacks are not the move of an army that is going to win. That is an army that is in denial of their reality.

They're not so much trying to "win" though as simply try to wear out the "enemy" and their supporters to the point where they simply don't think it's worth the cost any more, negotiations occur, they get to keep much of what they've taken.

Rinse and repeat.

It's why, if Ukraine had fallen, there is no doubt in my mind a war with the Baltic states was inevitable - the risk assessment in Moscow will be that the west isn't willing to fight as hard and as long as Russia, and will eventually negotiate something, even in an attack on NATO.

That risk remains unless Russia is thoroughly defeated.

The Kremlin simply doesn't care about the cost, human or otherwise.

 

[icerat]

A major factor in the ending of the first world war was the late introduction of a superpower, the US, providing hundreds of thousands of men and enormous industrial muscle.

It's that industrial muscle that's missing now. Europe at least should have gone on arms manufacturing war footing immediately in 2022. It's only now - barely - starting to understand this. And mostly not to help Ukraine but because we've realised that the same problem Ukraine has would befall Europe if Russia attacked - we'd run out of ammo.

 

[Ziggurat]

Human wave attacks are not the move of an army that is going to win. That is an army that is in denial of their reality.

I wouldn't say that. The Soviets used human wave attacks against the Germans, and they won. Human wave tactics are what you use when your troops are of low quality and you're short on material, which isn't a good position to be in, but that doesn't guarantee failure.

Note, I'm not saying that Russia will win. Only that their willingness to sacrifice their soldiers doesn't demonstrate they will lose either.

 

[Jimbo07]

So when do you think they'll reach the Polish border?

That's not what The Don is saying. Cut it out.

 

[steenkh]

It's why, if Ukraine had fallen, there is no doubt in my mind a war with the Baltic states was inevitable - the risk assessment in Moscow will be that the west isn't willing to fight as hard and as long as Russia, and will eventually negotiate something, even in an attack on NATO.

I think it is even more likely that Putin will continue restoring Zarist Russia by attacking Moldova. He already has Trans-Dniester in his hand, and this would connect that enclave directly to Russia. Besides, Moldova is not part of NATO.

The Kremlin simply doesn't care about the cost, human or otherwise.

Exactly. What is important for Putin is to be known as the man who restored Russia to its historical borders.

 

[lobosrul5]

I wouldn't say that. The Soviets used human wave attacks against the Germans, and they won. Human wave tactics are what you use when your troops are of low quality and you're short on material, which isn't a good position to be in, but that doesn't guarantee failure.

Note, I'm not saying that Russia will win. Only that their willingness to sacrifice their soldiers doesn't demonstrate they will lose either.

Those are not tactics that the Red Army made much use of later in the war. Ie the Battle of Kursk, or Operation Bagration. They would've been bled out had they relied on human wave tactics to retake all of their lost land, plus The Third Reich.