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Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 9

Jimbo07

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Jan 20, 2006
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Continued from here.
Posted By: Agatha




Appearances of winners or losers is going to ebb and flow a while longer. Let's just hope nato is committed to seeing Ukraine through this.

This.

But some here have objected to this as being too pessimistic. It's not pessimism, it's a call to action. At the very least, if you do nothing else, vote for politicians in your country who support NATO, arming Ukraine, etc.
 
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I agree that they are effective regardless of whether or not they are tracers.

But looking at the videos, every streak has an impact and there are no impacts without streaks. So every round fired by the Bradleys in Ukraine is a tracer. Maybe the U.S. Army didn't do it that way, but Ukraine does.

The simple answer is that there is no such thing as as a non-tracer Bushmaster round. Even the APDS and training ammo are tracer rounds.

Source: https://www.gd-ots.com/munitions/medium-caliber-ammunition/25mm-bushmaster/
 
Moscow Deploys 35,000 National Guards to Counter
Partisans in Occupied Ukraine

Russia has become concerned about partisan activity and anti-Kremlin attitudes among the local population in the occupied territories of Ukraine as its presidential elections approach.
 
that was in the Kyiv Post

for some reason I can't scroll up and down in new post or edit windows any more so I can't add anything to the original
 
Silly but I hadn't thought of it until now: all these new oblasts welcomed into mother Russia get a chance to vote for Putin now. I'm sure they can't wait.
 
Moscow Deploys 35,000 National Guards to Counter
Partisans in Occupied Ukraine

Russia has become concerned about partisan activity and anti-Kremlin attitudes among the local population in the occupied territories of Ukraine as its presidential elections approach.

The ISW map shows where they think partisan activity is happening. Over the last few months, More areas of resistance have shown up on the map.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
 

One was a sophisticated AWACS plane. With costs of maybe as much as 500 million. Russia only has 6 of them now I believe. Thats the one that was totally destroyed.

The other is a much cheaper turboprop plane designed for Army C&C from the air, that one managed to land. Pictures show significant damage to control structures. Its likely a write off.

Speculation is Ukraine brought a Patriot missile battery within just a few km of the southern front to get the range. A Russian fighter jet was also targeted but managed to evade the missile.

Meanwhile in Russia, they can't even get heating to their people.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWar...ia_in_2022_the_entire_europe_will_freeze_and/
 
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Meanwhile, in the latest news from America's 3-day special military operation to annex Mexico, an E-3 Sentry and an E-8 JSTARS were shot down by Mexican forces in US airspace off the coast of Texas.

American ground forces fighting their way towards Tijuana were heard to inquire, "what AWACS doing?"

European observers remain confident that at this rate, US forces will get to Mexico City sooner or later, but probably later.
 
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One was a sophisticated AWACS plane. With costs of maybe as much as 500 million. Russia only has 6 of them now I believe. Thats the one that was totally destroyed.

The other is a much cheaper turboprop plane designed for Army C&C from the air, that one managed to land. Pictures show significant damage to control structures. Its likely a write off.

Speculation is Ukraine brought a Patriot missile battery within just a few km of the southern front to get the range. A Russian fighter jet was also targeted but managed to evade the missile.

Here's some speculation of how that might have happened. Basically, Ukraine may have set a trap for the plane.

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-16-january-2024-scratch
 
In a nutshell:

The A-50 exists in very limited numbers, and has very limited performance as a radar warning system, compared to similar western planes. The Ukrainians launched an aggressive operation against Russian ground-based radars in the south. This then forced the Russians to send up one of their few A-50s to make up the radar shortfall in that region.

Because the A-50's performance is lacking, the Russians were further forced to operate it dangerously close to the front lines. The Ukrainians had previously an S-300 surface-to-air missile system close to the front line, to lie in wait for the A-50. Once the Ukrainians knew the plane was in range, they shot it down.

That's the hypothesis, anyway. Sounds reasonable to me.

---

Another reasonable-sounding hypothesis is that the Patriot system can fire missiles that home in on enemy radar signals. They fire the missile in the direction where they expect the plane to be, and the missile itself finds the plane and targets it, rather than relying on the Patriot's ground-based radar. This supposedly increases the Patriot's range five-fold, but with a much lower hit probability. The lower hit probability can be offset by really good reconnaissance that tells you pretty accurately where to send the missile, so that it finds the plane. If the Ukrainians are getting really good recon data from NATO, well.
 
It should be noted, that is a T-90M. It is Russia's very best actual* tank. And it was destroyed by a 40+ year old US IFV that should by all measures, get wrecked by a modern MBT.

*The Armata is not real.

It should be noted, there were actually two Bradleys in that firefight.

In the full video, one Bradley stumbles across a T-90 in a demolished village. Both vehicles seem surprised at the close-range encounter, and open fire on each other. Shortly thereafter, that Bradley disengages and drives off. At that point, a second Bradley moves in and engages the tank from slightly farther away. More fire is exchanged, and ultimately the T-90 drives off, on fire and with its turret spinning uncontrollably. The tank crashes into a tree, its crew dismount and run away, and a Ukrainian suicide drone finishes it off.

But the T-90 was thoroughly mission killed by the Bradleys, before the drone got there.
 
It should be noted, there were actually two Bradleys in that firefight.

In the full video, one Bradley stumbles across a T-90 in a demolished village. Both vehicles seem surprised at the close-range encounter, and open fire on each other. Shortly thereafter, that Bradley disengages and drives off. At that point, a second Bradley moves in and engages the tank from slightly farther away. More fire is exchanged, and ultimately the T-90 drives off, on fire and with its turret spinning uncontrollably. The tank crashes into a tree, its crew dismount and run away, and a Ukrainian suicide drone finishes it off.

But the T-90 was thoroughly mission killed by the Bradleys, before the drone got there.

Link, man, where's the link? It sounds cool as heck!
 
Link, man, where's the link? It sounds cool as heck!

Here you go!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWar..._close_combat/?share_id=JmXPBSjBf3g0bUJHatCh0

Bradley 1 drives across the foreground, from left to right, stopping at the intersection of foreground street and "main street" to engage the tank.

T-90 maneuvers along that "main street" stretching from foreground to background.

Bradley 2 drives down the right hand side on a parallel road, then drives over to "main street" to finish the tank.
 
In a nutshell:

The A-50 exists in very limited numbers, and has very limited performance as a radar warning system, compared to similar western planes. The Ukrainians launched an aggressive operation against Russian ground-based radars in the south. This then forced the Russians to send up one of their few A-50s to make up the radar shortfall in that region.

Because the A-50's performance is lacking, the Russians were further forced to operate it dangerously close to the front lines. The Ukrainians had previously an S-300 surface-to-air missile system close to the front line, to lie in wait for the A-50. Once the Ukrainians knew the plane was in range, they shot it down.

That's the hypothesis, anyway. Sounds reasonable to me.

---

Another reasonable-sounding hypothesis is that the Patriot system can fire missiles that home in on enemy radar signals. They fire the missile in the direction where they expect the plane to be, and the missile itself finds the plane and targets it, rather than relying on the Patriot's ground-based radar. This supposedly increases the Patriot's range five-fold, but with a much lower hit probability. The lower hit probability can be offset by really good reconnaissance that tells you pretty accurately where to send the missile, so that it finds the plane. If the Ukrainians are getting really good recon data from NATO, well.

It would seem those planes were hit with Patriots...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/s...bed/199oprh?responsive=trueis_nightmode=false

I'm assuming this was translated correctly of course.... or Zelensky could be playing games.
 
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Here you go!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWar..._close_combat/?share_id=JmXPBSjBf3g0bUJHatCh0

Bradley 1 drives across the foreground, from left to right, stopping at the intersection of foreground street and "main street" to engage the tank.

T-90 maneuvers along that "main street" stretching from foreground to background.

Bradley 2 drives down the right hand side on a parallel road, then drives over to "main street" to finish the tank.


The Ryan McBeth take on it. McBeth was an anti-armor platoon sergeant.

The T-90 might be salvageable.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-_LuEbHHyo
 
The Ryan McBeth take on it. McBeth was an anti-armor platoon sergeant.
So totally current with the latest techniques for salvaging upgraded T-72s.

The T-90 might be salvageable.
There you go.

I feel like I don't even need to watch the video.

More seriously: The Bradley's autocannon was never meant to penetrate the armor of Soviet main battle tanks. This was more a matter of busting up some of its external sensors, damaging the turret rotation system, totally discombobulating the tank crew... and then hitting its top armor with an anti-tank drone.

And the turret is still on the tank! So I wouldn't be surprised if this particular tank does end up back on the battlefield. Hopefully in Ukrainian hands.
 
And the turret is still on the tank! So I wouldn't be surprised if this particular tank does end up back on the battlefield. Hopefully in Ukrainian hands.

My recollection is that the T-90 doesn't have the turret-toss problem of the earlier models. Safer ammo storage or something.

Meanwhile, Russia has added another submarine to its Black Sea fleet.
 

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