General Republicans are nuts.

Warp12 said:
It's not a guarantee, of course. But, this single online poll somehow is. :rolleyes:
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Are you still struggling with the concept of a prediction and a description being different things?

Warp12 said:
It is fake news when you combine "absolutely" and "probably" to arrive at a percentage for what we imply is definitely "true".
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Don't dishonestly add that "definitely" in there. That's what makes it fake news.
 
wareyin said:
Sadly many people, like you, thought a 71-95% chance of something happening was a guarantee it would happen
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I want to make sure I remember this as a supporting argument for accuracy in polling. Very convincing. :thumbsup:
 
Warp12 said:
It's not a guarantee, of course. But, this single online poll somehow is. :rolleyes:
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Take the statistics from the poll and apply the margin of error to it. Then you'll come up with a more statistically accurate number. That's why they provide it in the poll.

Do you know how statistics work at all?
 
plague311 said:
Do you know how statistics work at all?
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I've heard that they are just as accurate as the source and methods from which they are derived. Forgetting about any "loose" interpretations, of course.

Remember, "Absolutely" + "Probably" implies "Definitely". ;)
 
General Republicans are contrarian trolls with no philosophy beyond an obstructionist "The liberals/left/democrats/etc" cannot under any circumstances be allowed to get what they want."

The problem is when you have that mentality against a group that is, as wrong and stupid as they can still sometimes be, at least as functionally still on the same plane of reality as... well reality as the Left is, you're functionally turning yourself into insane.

Even if every thing the Republicans did was wrong, evil, stupid, counter-productive, etc I wouldn't necessarily think they were crazy if they had any actual goals that were independent of "Those dirty lubruls say 2+2=4 and poking yourself in the eye with a stick hurts, just who are they to tell me what to think watch me poke myself in the eye with a stick and say 2+2=5...."

But now, no they've have simply declared themselves to be anti-reality. And there's no hair to split between that and "crazy."
 
Warp12 said:
Let's roll it back a little:

Now we are at:

And, of course we must always trust internet-based polling, right?

I remember one time that polling was way off, but I'd have to go back to 2016, for that.

https://www.thewrap.com/every-poll-that-got-election-wrong-donald-trump/

But, hey, "belief" is where is anything can be true! Follow your heart!
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It's strange you'd again choose to weaken your argument, this time by going to 2016. The presidential polling in 2020 was even worse. The worst in decades, actually.

It's also odd you'd resort to polls that understated Republican support. The usual explanation is social desirability bias (so-called "shy" Trump voters). We'd probably expect people to similarly understate their whacky views about microchips in vaccines... unless you're suggesting a darker explanation -- that the polls are just deliberately fraudulent, but that would require evidence.
 
Warp12 said:
I've heard that they are just as accurate as the source and methods from which they are derived. Forgetting about any "loose" interpretations, of course.

Remember, "Absolutely" + "Probably" implies "Definitely". ;)
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Rule of holes suggests you should stop digging yourself in deeper

People who think something is definitely true and people who think something is probabaly true both think it's true. This is how words work.
 
lomiller said:
People who think something is definitely true and people who think something is probabaly true both think it's true. This is how words work.
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Maybe at your house, not mine.

Just so long as absolutely, definitely, and probably are all equally true...hell, lets throw in "maybe" while we're at it. Good argument. :thumbsup:
 
Warp12 said:
Maybe at your house, not mine.

Just so long as absolutely, definitely, and probably are all equally true...hell, lets throw in "maybe" while we're at it. Good argument. :thumbsup:
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Probably true > 50% likelihood
Probably false < 50% likelihood
Absolutely true = 100% likelihood
Absolutely false = 0% likelihood
 
Paul2 said:
Probably true > 50% likelihood
Probably false < 50% likelihood
Absolutely true = 100% likelihood
Absolutely false = 0% likelihood
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Keep in mind we also have a "not sure" option that would include values near 50% likelihood and that 100% likelihood isn't achievable in real world problems so the people answering absolutely true really mean "some arbitrarily high likelihood". The scale probabaly looks more like this for most people:
Absolutely true > 80% likely but < 100% likely
Probabaly true 60% likely - 80% likely
Not sure 40% likely - 60% likely
Probabaly false 20% likely to 40% likely
Absolutely false > 0% likely but < 20% likely
 
JoeMorgue said:
General Republicans are contrarian trolls with no philosophy beyond an obstructionist "The liberals/left/democrats/etc" cannot under any circumstances be allowed to get what they want."

The problem is when you have that mentality against a group that is, as wrong and stupid as they can still sometimes be, at least as functionally still on the same plane of reality as... well reality as the Left is, you're functionally turning yourself into insane.

Even if every thing the Republicans did was wrong, evil, stupid, counter-productive, etc I wouldn't necessarily think they were crazy if they had any actual goals that were independent of "Those dirty lubruls say 2+2=4 and poking yourself in the eye with a stick hurts, just who are they to tell me what to think watch me poke myself in the eye with a stick and say 2+2=5...."

But now, no they've have simply declared themselves to be anti-reality. And there's no hair to split between that and "crazy."
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Well, with that said, there's nothing I can add to this thread.
 
lomiller said:
Keep in mind we also have a "not sure" option that would include values near 50% likelihood and that 100% likelihood isn't achievable in real world problems so the people answering absolutely true really mean "some arbitrarily high likelihood". The scale probabaly looks more like this for most people:
Absolutely true > 80% likely but < 100% likely
Probabaly true 60% likely - 80% likely
Not sure 40% likely - 60% likely
Probabaly false 20% likely to 40% likely
Absolutely false > 0% likely but < 20% likely
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Yes, that gets into a finer level of detail, same approach.
 
JoeMorgue said:
General Republicans are contrarian trolls with no philosophy beyond an obstructionist "The liberals/left/democrats/etc" cannot under any circumstances be allowed to get what they want."

The problem is when you have that mentality against a group that is, as wrong and stupid as they can still sometimes be, at least as functionally still on the same plane of reality as... well reality as the Left is, you're functionally turning yourself into insane.

Even if every thing the Republicans did was wrong, evil, stupid, counter-productive, etc I wouldn't necessarily think they were crazy if they had any actual goals that were independent of "Those dirty lubruls say 2+2=4 and poking yourself in the eye with a stick hurts, just who are they to tell me what to think watch me poke myself in the eye with a stick and say 2+2=5...."

But now, no they've have simply declared themselves to be anti-reality. And there's no hair to split between that and "crazy."
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It's the GOP embracing the Anti Vaxxers that proved they have gone wackjob; even more then the embrace of "The Big Lie".
 
Belz... said:
That middle one was a troll, by the way, not a supporter.
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I know. I was referring to Gaetz and MTG. But ironic thing is that, if one didn't know the guy in the flag costume was a troll, it would be perfectly logical to assume they were at a Trump rally. After all:






 
"Let's talk about exactly what percentage may or may not be correct instead of the fact that most people who have embraced the 'microchip in the vaccine' stupidity are Republicans" distraction tactic in all its glory.
 
Stacyhs said:
"Let's talk about exactly what percentage may or may not be correct instead of the fact that most people who have embraced the 'microchip in the vaccine' stupidity are Republicans" distraction tactic in all its glory.
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The fact that GOP politicians think there is something to be gained by embracing the ANti Vax nonsense should tell you all you need to story about the mental state of the GOP.
 
Warp12 said:
I've heard that they are just as accurate as the source and methods from which they are derived. Forgetting about any "loose" interpretations, of course.

Remember, "Absolutely" + "Probably" implies "Definitely". ;)
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The word used was "Believe", not definitely. You made that up. "Absolutely" and "probably" sound like belief to me.

Even if you want a separate category for "probably", isn't the fact that so many people think this way a bit alarming, and a whole lot of stupid?
 
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