It is ridiculous. Someone implying that they would classify it as a natural occurrence...that is even more ridiculous.
Ed A call for new open-minded research on psychic phenomena
- Thread starter Myriad
- Start date
It is ridiculous. Someone implying that they would classify it as a natural occurrence...that is even more ridiculous.
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
My words were attempting to get across the point that is better summed up in the quote that starts that article:
"That a particular specified event or coincidence will occur is very unlikely. That some astonishing unspecified events will occur is certain. That is why remarkable coincidences are noted in hindsight, not predicted with foresight."--David G. Myers
You are talking about a particular specified event or coincidence - finding a certain person in your bed tomorrow after thinking about her - and I agree that is very very unlikely. And yes, OK, if that particular predicted coincidence did occur I would concede it was evidence of the paranormal. Happy now? But it isn't going to, is it?
But in the course of your life it is almost certain that you will experience one or two very very unlikely coincidences. Perhaps not quite as unlikely as that one, but certainly sufficiently unlikely for you to stop and marvel at how incredibly unlikely it was. But those won't be evidence of the paranormal. Because those will be "noted in hindsight, not predicted with foresight".
Last edited:
The point is, you have belabored the point that it would be a natural occurrence. And, I also think you have tried to lump all coincidences into one group, just based on simple numbers.
So, I am glad you admit that something could be classified as paranormal...but as I mentioned before, when classifying coincidence, we can't group all in the same boat.
Now you have stated you would consider this paranormal. So, what is your threshold? Does it become paranormal at a B-list actress, an A-list? What about the neighbor I have been thinking of on occasion? It seems rather arbitrary, to say the least.
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
The threshold for an unlikely coincidence being considered evidence for the paranormal is that it is predicted before the event, rather than noted afterwards.
The more details that are correctly predicted the more impressive the hit, as the less likely it was to be chance.
Someone who can accurately predict unlikely coincidences with a hit rate significantly greater than chance would have provided evidence of the paranormal.
No-one ever has.
The more details that are correctly predicted the more impressive the hit, as the less likely it was to be chance.
Someone who can accurately predict unlikely coincidences with a hit rate significantly greater than chance would have provided evidence of the paranormal.
No-one ever has.
arthwollipot
Observer of Phenomena, Pronouns: he/him
You misunderstand. I think that it is an inappropriate metaphor for an unlikely but random occurrence. The appearance of Eva Mendes in your bed would by necessity be anything but random. She just doesn't appear in random peoples' beds. She would have to have a reason to, and that reason would, I expect, be based upon a prior relationship with you. So it is very much not like a lottery ticket, which is random, and you can't draw any kind of useful analogy between Eva Mendes being in your bed when you get home tonight and winning the lottery.
That's why I say you picked a ridiculous example. It does not illustrate any kind of meaningful point. It just introduces a dumb sex fantasy into a discussion that ought to be taking place above the waistline.
And that is why Eva Mendes in my bed tomorrow is a natural occurrence, according to some, I suppose.
As ridiculous as it was, it was stated by someone that it would be by chance....because, numbers. And, for the record, I didn't state anything sexual, obviously.
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
That is why unspecified unlikely coincidences occurring as often as would be expected by chance are not evidence of the paranormal.
Good to see that accepting it as being something paranormal is out of the mix, again.
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
I've explained why unlikely coincidences can only be considered evidence of the paranormal if they are predicted in advance.
It's not my fault if you still don't understand this simple point.
arthwollipot
Observer of Phenomena, Pronouns: he/him
Let's forget Eva Mendes, if you even can. If I predict the outcome of a coin toss with 50% accuracy, that is not evidence that I have a paranormal ability to influence the toss. That's just random chance. One in a million chances happen one in a million times. If you can't beat that, then you're not demonstrating anything paranormal.
And it is not my fault if you say something isn't paranormal, then admit that it would be, and then recant.
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
Unlikely coincidences aren't evidence of the paranormal if they are noted in hindsight. They are evidence of the paranormal if they are predicted in advance.
I could have been clearer when I was discussing the former and when the latter, I obviously confused you, but I have not changed my position. Perhaps if we'd been discussing a less silly example the confusion would have been avoided.
It's hard to quit her, bro. Especially after skeptical wisdom has told you that she showed up just based upon random chance. But I will try.
P.J. Denyer
Penultimate Amazing
Of course they remain fictional, that was the point & I even described them as being, like psychic powers, utterly fictional. I think you're misreading me as holding the opposite position to what I'm holding. I was simply pointing out that it was unfair, and a distraction, to criticise Warp12 for a comparison that wasn't his.
If CS Lewis shows up on my doorstep tomorrow, I am pretty sure a skeptic would consider it simple chance. And for the record, I would not be surprised if psychic powers are utterly fictional. But, you would need to read the thread to get that context.
arthwollipot
Observer of Phenomena, Pronouns: he/him
Did you even read my post #188? CS Lewis showing up on your doorstep would not be random chance. He never did show up randomly on anyone's doorstep, and furthermore he's dead.
So if he did show up randomly on your doorstep, and it could be conclusively proved that he did, he would have done so as a ghost, which would definitely be counted as paranormal.
Yes, I know he is dead. Which makes my statement even more accurate.
I saw post #188. I disregarded it, mostly.
P.J. Denyer
Penultimate Amazing
Given that C.S. Lewis has been dead for decades I for one would certainly consider his (verified) appearance on your doorstep as paranormal.
And as it happens I have read the entire thread, and like many others find your protestations of scepticism at odds with your stated position. You should go back and re-read Pixel42's posts, she actually has a long history on this site of helping people with claimed paranormal abilities to design tests for what they claim to be able to do, in some cases (such as DowserDan) they even actually performed tests rather than backing out as the avenues to fool themselves closed.