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Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 6. Pick up sticks...

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Tolls

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I asked this elsewhere on the interweb, but has the PM ever alluded to No Brexit (ie Remaining) as an option before?
Because she did last night:

"This deal, which delivers on the vote of the referendum, which brings back control of our money, laws and borders, ends free movement, protects jobs, security and our Union; or leave with no deal, or no Brexit at all."




Thread continued from here.

You may quote or reply to any post from that or any previous section of this thread.
Posted By: zooterkin
 
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erwinl said:
No. Then it is not ratified and thus not legally binding.
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Well, a treaty has to be ratified, but does a "deal" have to be ratified too? Doesn't the government have some freedom to run the country (particularly in the UK system)?
I found this, on the website of the Daily Express (date: October 8, 2018):
Michael Gordon, professor of constitutional law at the University of Liverpool, believes Mrs May would face a number of possible outcomes if MPs were to reject the agreement she returns to the Commons with.
The Prime Minister could face a no confidence vote, which would trigger a general election if an alternative government cannot be formed within 14 days.

EU diplomats believe the biggest chance of a no-deal Brexit would be brought along by Mrs May being ousted from Downing Street.

When the Prime Minister released her controversial Chequers proposal, European capitals recommended high profile figures not to torpedo the plans in order to preserve Mrs May’s position.

According to Mr Gordon, another possible outcome for Mrs May’s deal being voted down by MPs would be a second referendum, while another vote would infuriate Brexiteers it is unlikely possible to create the required legislation in time for March 2019.
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(link: https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...atest-Theresa-May-House-of-Commons-Parliament )
Many politicians in the House of Commons seem to be against the deal, but there seems to be some support from business and Union leaders. So I am not sure Brexiteers are in a terribly comfortable position.
Note: I saw Captain Swoop's and Darat's posts after I wrote this one.
 
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McHrozni said:
The gist of it is that UK remains in the EU, it needs to follow all the EU rules but without having a seat at the table when making them. British financial industry will no longer have the position it has within the EU and UK can't make new trade deals until both parties agree on a different kind of future relationship, sometime in the future.

I'm not an expert on the matter, but it seems to me the EU got just about everything it could possibly want from UK and UK got shafted in just about every way it could get shafted.

If Theresa May is trying to stop Brexit then she really did go all in with this one.

McHrozni
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IMO it was an nearly inevitable outcome. I have no horse in the race myself, but there seems to be a huge disconnect on the Brexit side of things with the way sovereign independent nations actually work. It’s almost as if the pro Brexit crowd can’t understand that that if the UK leaves the EU the EU has no choice but to treat them as a non-EU country.

I can’t imagine the EU would ever agree to sign away any of it’s sovereignty in a Brexit deal, nor is there any good reason why it should. This means that among other things: No non-EU country (as the UK would be post Brexit) is going to have say in making rules/regulations for the EU. The EU was never going to allow a non-EU country the type of influence over the EU banking system that the UK had within the EU. The EU was never going to allow the UK to act as a staging g point that could be used to bypass it’s borders, trade agreements and regulations.


The first two would be non-starters. On any Brexit the UK would be immediacy an outsider wrt financial systems and decision making bodies. Full stop. The third has some alternatives beyond just staying in the EU. Have a hard border with the EU where each sides trade, product and customs rules could be enforced. Develop comprehensive trade and/or customs agreements between the UK and EU. Agree to follow EU trade, product and customs rules until one of the above could be established.


With no trade/customs deal in place and a refusal to have a border the 3rd option, follow all EU rules without having a say in making them, is the only option left. It’s a terrible option for a country whose goal was independence from the EU but having rejected all other options it’s all that’s left.
 
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1062983853260918784.html

Worth a read

One tweet from that which won't get autocensored:

LIDINGTON: Suella Bravernann has gone
MAY: Okay seriously you made that name up
LIDINGTON: I didn't!
MAY: Who's next? Willie Dustice?
LIDINGTON: She's real! I swear!
MAY: Sure. Has Dwigt Rortugal gone yet?
LIDINGTON: Look! She's on Wikipedia!
MAY: That's not a valid source, David
Click to expand...

MAY <on phone>: I hear you're planning another pizza party
GOVE: <dry hissing>
MAY: How you do think I know?
GRAYLING: Hello!
GOVE: <sound of wet tentacles>
MAY: I propose an alternative: Be My Brexit Minister
GOVE: <ghoulish wail>
MAY: Think about it Michael this could be your chance to prove everyone wrong
GOVE: <wet clicking>
MAY: Brexit Secretary. They'd HAVE to admire you
GOVE: <subdued wet slapping>
MAY: They'd have to love you then, Michael. The people, they'd have to respect you
GOVE: <demonic purr>
Click to expand...

LIDINGTON: Rumours about Chris now. Shall I...
MAY: Grayling Grayling Grayling
GRAYLING: Hello!
LIDINGTON: I was going to call him.
MAY: The curse is quicker. Chris have you been speaking to Gove again?
GRAYLING: Um... No?
MAY: You're covered in ichor, Chris
GRAYLING: Okay yes.
MAY: What did Gove say to you?
GRAYLING: It sang a song, straight into my brain. Like sugar, sorrow and power intertwined. Through it all, one world resolved: 'resign'
MAY: Oh Jesus. Gove got to you.
GRAYLING: Also it gave me pizza
MAY:
GRAYLING: It was Hawaiian
MAY: Sweet mercy
Click to expand...
 
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lomiller said:
IMO it was an nearly inevitable outcome. I have no horse in the race myself, but there seems to be a huge disconnect on the Brexit side of things with the way sovereign independent nations actually work. It’s almost as if the pro Brexit crowd can’t understand that that if the UK leaves the EU the EU has no choice but to treat them as a non-EU country.

I can’t imagine the EU would ever agree to sign away any of it’s sovereignty in a Brexit deal, nor is there any good reason why it should. This means that among other things: No non-EU country (as the UK would be post Brexit) is going to have say in making rules/regulations for the EU. The EU was never going to allow a non-EU country the type of influence over the EU banking system that the UK had within the EU. The EU was never going to allow the UK to act as a staging g point that could be used to bypass it’s borders, trade agreements and regulations.


The first two would be non-starters. On any Brexit the UK would be immediacy an outsider wrt financial systems and decision making bodies. Full stop. The third has some alternatives beyond just staying in the EU. Have a hard border with the EU where each sides trade, product and customs rules could be enforced. Develop comprehensive trade and/or customs agreements between the UK and EU. Agree to follow EU trade, product and customs rules until one of the above could be established.


With no trade/customs deal in place and a refusal to have a border the 3rd option, follow all EU rules without having a say in making them, is the only option left. It’s a terrible option for a country whose goal was independence from the EU but having rejected all other options it’s all that’s left.
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The UK has invested a lot in the EU. It is owed consideration and a duty of care. It shouldn't have to pay a £39bn divorce bill, or have to be locked into a euphemistic 'backstop'. The EU is acting like a truculent spouse who resists the separation.
 
Vixen said:
The UK has invested a lot in the EU. It is owed consideration and a duty of care. It shouldn't have to pay a £39bn divorce bill, or have to be locked into a euphemistic 'backstop'. The EU is acting like a truculent spouse who resists the separation.
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No the EU is happy to separate and have a hard border, the UK is insisting on no border that means there must be a customs union or a means of working out what is crossing the border.

The UK is acting like a husband who post divorce wants to still live with his kids when his wife has been given custody. That can only happen if he stays in the same house as his ex. It is not that his ex won't let him go, it is just that is the only way he can get what he wants (live with his kids) without the ex giving up her rights to custody.
 
Vixen said:
The UK has invested a lot in the EU. It is owed consideration and a duty of care. It shouldn't have to pay a £39bn divorce bill, or have to be locked into a euphemistic 'backstop'. The EU is acting like a truculent spouse who resists the separation.
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The UK used to have a veto, good job brexiters.
 
Vixen said:
The UK has invested a lot in the EU. It is owed consideration and a duty of care. It shouldn't have to pay a £39bn divorce bill, or have to be locked into a euphemistic 'backstop'. The EU is acting like a truculent spouse who resists the separation.
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The UK has benefited a great deal from being in the EU, now that you decided to quit you don't get to demand to keep all the benefits...
 
Lothian said:
No the EU is happy to separate and have a hard border, the UK is insisting on no border that means there must be a customs union or a means of working out what is crossing the border.

The UK is acting like a husband who post divorce wants to still live with his kids when his wife has been given custody. That can only happen if he stays in the same house as his ex. It is not that his ex won't let him go, it is just that is the only way he can get what he wants (live with his kids) without the ex giving up her rights to custody.
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EU is like an ex-husband giving the ex-wife the matrimonial home - which was hers all along and bought with her money - but demanding it be partitioned, with one section cut off from the rest but demanding the same amount in domestic rates for the entire property.
 
Vixen said:
In which way?
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Export to the common market. Lots of free trade treaties qwith the rest of the world, weight of the European economic power when it comes to negotiatiing international treaties ...
 
Vixen said:
The UK has invested a lot in the EU. It is owed consideration and a duty of care. It shouldn't have to pay a £39bn divorce bill, or have to be locked into a euphemistic 'backstop'. The EU is acting like a truculent spouse who resists the separation.
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Lol... the UK is owed consideration and a duty of care? Whatever gave you that quant notion?

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Vixen said:
The UK has invested a lot in the EU. It is owed consideration and a duty of care. It shouldn't have to pay a £39bn divorce bill, or have to be locked into a euphemistic 'backstop'. The EU is acting like a truculent spouse who resists the separation.
Click to expand...

It doesnt have to be locked into a backstop. It can have a border with the EU just like the Ukraine does. But it doesn't want that. It wants to have all the benefits of an open border with none of the responsibilities of one.
 
"We want to take control of our own borders! Except for the one place where we actually have a border; there we want no border at all.

Why can't you make that happen, EU? Why do you always have to make things so difficult, by applying rules we insisted on for the past 40 years?"
 
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