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Will robots steal our jobs?

barehl

Master Poster
barehl
Joined
Jul 8, 2013
Messages
2,655
UK Economic Outlook March, 2017

Our analysis suggests that up to 30% of UK jobs could potentially be at high risk of automation by the early 2030s, lower than the US (38%) or Germany (35%), but higher than Japan (21%).

In this article we present the findings from our own analysis of this topic, which builds on the research of both Frey and Osborne (hereafter ‘FO’) and Arntz, Gregory and Zierahn (hereafter ‘AGZ’).

PwC - 38% loss in US
FO - 47% loss in US
AGZ - 9% loss in US

This seems to be the justification:

However, over the past few years, fears of technology-driven job losses have re-emerged with advances in ‘smart automation’ – the combination of AI, robotics and other digital technologies that is already producing innovations like driverless cars and trucks, intelligent virtual assistants like Siri, Alexa and Cortana, and Japanese healthcare robots. While traditional machines, including fixed location industrial robots, replaced our muscles (and those of other animals like horses and oxen), these new smart machines have the potential to replace our minds and to move around freely in the world driven by a combination of advanced sensors, GPS tracking systems and deep learning, if not now then probably within the next decade or two.


I know what my opinion is of this article. I'm curious what the consensus and reasoning is on this forum.
 
Excuse me 'barehl', but maybe you have have not heard the news that robots have been stealing jobs from humans for the last few decades.

I was sure that fact was common knowledge by now.
 
Crossbow said:
Excuse me 'barehl', but maybe you have have not heard the news that robots have been stealing jobs from humans for the last few decades.

I was sure that fact was common knowledge by now.
Click to expand...

The title of the paper is Will robots steal our jobs? The potential impact of automation on the UK and other major economies.

Maybe you haven't heard, but I didn't write the paper. I was sure that fact was obvious.
 
barehl said:
The title of the paper is Will robots steal our jobs? The potential impact of automation on the UK and other major economies.

Maybe you haven't heard, but I didn't write the paper. I was sure that fact was obvious.
Click to expand...

The obvious fact was your question "Will robots steal our jobs?".

Which prompted the obvious fact that I produced.

As for you, ...

If you actually want people to read the article you cite and then to write comments about that article, then it would be most helpful if you clearly said so.
 
barehl said:
UK Economic Outlook March, 2017

Our analysis suggests that up to 30% of UK jobs could potentially be at high risk of automation by the early 2030s, lower than the US (38%) or Germany (35%), but higher than Japan (21%).

In this article we present the findings from our own analysis of this topic, which builds on the research of both Frey and Osborne (hereafter ‘FO’) and Arntz, Gregory and Zierahn (hereafter ‘AGZ’).

PwC - 38% loss in US
FO - 47% loss in US
AGZ - 9% loss in US

This seems to be the justification:

However, over the past few years, fears of technology-driven job losses have re-emerged with advances in ‘smart automation’ – the combination of AI, robotics and other digital technologies that is already producing innovations like driverless cars and trucks, intelligent virtual assistants like Siri, Alexa and Cortana, and Japanese healthcare robots. While traditional machines, including fixed location industrial robots, replaced our muscles (and those of other animals like horses and oxen), these new smart machines have the potential to replace our minds and to move around freely in the world driven by a combination of advanced sensors, GPS tracking systems and deep learning, if not now then probably within the next decade or two.


I know what my opinion is of this article. I'm curious what the consensus and reasoning is on this forum.
Click to expand...

Seems reasonable to me, but we'll adapt.

It's not like we'll all be begging in the streets due to robots taking our jobs. There will be new jobs, or maybe, as unlikely as it seems, we might actually work less.

That last bit is being a bit optimistic, but a guy can dream, eh?
 
Some jobs will go, but they will be replaced by other jobs. Then living standards will improve, so create even more jobs. Hence there will not be large scale unemployment due to technology change.
 
rjh01 said:
Some jobs will go, but they will be replaced by other jobs. Then living standards will improve, so create even more jobs. Hence there will not be large scale unemployment due to technology change.
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.... and the rising tide will lift all boats and all the wealth will trickle down to the masses.

Even if that doesn't happen, mobile phones will become cheaper so we will all be RICH RICH RICH.
 
psionl0 said:
.... and the rising tide will lift all boats and all the wealth will trickle down to the masses.

Even if that doesn't happen, mobile phones will become cheaper so we will all be RICH RICH RICH.
Click to expand...


This will happen. This is the kind of thing that's been happening all last century in the freer economies.

Is this really your position: Oh no! People now carry supercomputers with screens with higher resolution than old film cameras right in their pockets!

Economists look at the kinds of things available to buy, and what the average person does buy, and things continue to get better and better and better...in the freer economies. China is opening up...and their people are benefiting from it -- there is more to freedom than just freedom of speech.




"I hate capitalism!", he thumbed into his iPhone, then pressed the post button. He turned and picked up his latte from the barista, a deal he thought, at $45/gallon. :rolleyes:
 
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Beerina said:
This will happen. This is the kind of thing that's been happening all last century in the freer economies.
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Sure, this kind of thing happened in the horse and buggy era so it will always happen.

Beerina said:
Is this really your position: Oh no! People now carry supercomputers with screens with higher resolution than old film cameras right in their pockets!
Click to expand...
I seriously worry about the ability of some posters to read. :boggled:
 
psionl0 said:
.... and the rising tide will lift all boats and all the wealth will trickle down to the masses.

Even if that doesn't happen, mobile phones will become cheaper so we will all be RICH RICH RICH.
Click to expand...
I never said anything about the trickle down effect. Yes, there will be winners and losers. There always are. My point being that it will make society as a whole wealthier.
 
rjh01 said:
I never said anything about the trickle down effect. Yes, there will be winners and losers. There always are. My point being that it will make society as a whole wealthier.
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Your argument belongs to the "trickle down" category. It is out of date. It ignores that individuals are being priced out of the housing market or that they have to be saddled with crippling student debt all their lives if they want anything better than low paid casual work in bottom level jobs that are the prime targets of automation. All indications are that this trend is increasing with no end in sight.

The argument that technological devices are way more affordable and this somehow cancels out the above realities doesn't wash. Unless we prepare for a world where labour is not needed we are going to see extreme poverty - even in the first world - on a scale never seen before.
 
psionl0 said:
Your argument belongs to the "trickle down" category. It is out of date. It ignores that individuals are being priced out of the housing market or that they have to be saddled with crippling student debt all their lives if they want anything better than low paid casual work in bottom level jobs that are the prime targets of automation. All indications are that this trend is increasing with no end in sight.

The argument that technological devices are way more affordable and this somehow cancels out the above realities doesn't wash. Unless we prepare for a world where labour is not needed we are going to see extreme poverty - even in the first world - on a scale never seen before.
Click to expand...

Actually you could have a point. Though you have put in a lot of rubbish as well. Student loans and house prices are not relevant.

What we could see are unskilled and semi skilled jobs disappearing. And highly skilled jobs being created. The total income from salary and wages goes down slightly. What does go up a lot is income from investments in the share market. Overall the economy grows. The big problems though are the reduction in size of the middle class and the unskilled workforce unable to get jobs that pay a living wage. This weakens democracy.

The consequences of that may include the rise of domestic service and crime fueled by poverty. Could be even worse. If factories come back to the developed world because they no longer need a large, unskilled, poorly paid workforce then it could lead to the collapse of governments / countries, which depended on such factories for their income.

One partial solution is to give everyone a pension. Something like the unemployment benefit. No need to look for a job. Nor would it matter if you do have a job, you still get this pension. Taxes may have to be high to pay for it. This idea is not new. Romans (when they had an empire) got a monthly food ration.
 
rjh01 said:
Student loans and house prices are not relevant.

What we could see are unskilled and semi skilled jobs disappearing.
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OK I will concede that housing prices are not directly relevant to automation (there are other factors involved). However, you have just demonstrated that higher education at any price is most definitely relevant.
 
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