Merged New telepathy test: which number did I write ?

[Michel H]

I too can confirm that I have never ever received any psychic message from you, nor from anyone else ...

You are welcome to express yourself freely, Jack by the hedge (like all other members), of course probably within the limits imposed by the Member Agreement of this forum, and this includes expressing skeptical opinions. This, however, doesn't mean that I shall necessarily believe you. I can perhaps remind you that you did provide a quality answer in my second test on this forum:

... I change my guess to 3.
...

(yes, this was you, in 2013, 3 years ago ... ). Your answer was found to be both incorrect and non-credible, in line with the general observation that non-credible answers tend to be incorrect (rather than just random).

...
Can you explain what you mean about details possibly being important? This response reminds me of when you picked up on a grammatical error in one of my own posts. It seemed to me that you were implying that errors in the posts might somehow invalidate the points they were making. ...

Yes, I think your last sentence above is pretty accurate. Because of a (in my opinion) general lack of honesty in telepathy matters, I always carefully examine credibilities of answers and statements (and I also try to investigate the credibilities of human beings who make these statements). When I see spelling, or grammatical, or logical errors in texts, this has a direct impact on your credibilities.

 

[Michel H]

Hi, I invite you to participate in a new, simple, telepathy test, of the kind you may have seen before. ...

At about 9:00 p.m. on this Friday September 9 (Brussels, Belgium time), I wrote carefully one of the four words: "automobile", "boat", "plane", and "submarine" on my sheet of paper, and I surrounded it with a rough ellipse. Then, I wrote it again twice.

I shall repeat this word from time to time during this test.

I ask you to write it here (if you think you know it, even with a doubt). You may also answer "I don't know".
...

I would like to give now the results of this test, the correct answer was "plane", the sentence I used for the SHA512 hash was: The word ist #àçè plane.
.

Two valid answers, equal to one of the four possible options in this forced-choice test, were given.

Emily's Cat answered boat:

Boat
Certainty: I give it about 30% to 40% likelihood of being correct. Better than random, but hardly meeting the threshold for predictability.

Here's the reason: Humans suck at random. If we're supposed to pick something random, we almost never pick the first or last thing in the list, nor do we pick the exact center element. But we tend to anchor, so we more often tend to select something closer to the beginning of a list than toward the end.

With the assumption that you wrote the words in the same order that you presented them to us (alphabetically), then the word "boat" is the word that you're statistically most likely to have select. It's the 2nd in the list - not 1st, not last, but more toward the beginning than the end.

It has nothing at all to do with telepathy, only to do with a rough understanding of how brains work, and how bad they are at random

She is in the North Western part of the U.S., I believe. Although I don't want to minimize in any way Emily's Cat's merit for participating in this test (which I think is great), I have to admit that her answer is not credible, because she stated that her answer had nothing with telepathy, but was instead related to the way we tend to select items in a list.

cullennz answered (correctly) plane:

...
(incidentally, the same phenomenon seems to occur with many animals)...

Its been known for a fair while that dogs can percieve the mood of their owner. She aint rocket science. Its facial expression and unusual behaviour of the leader of the pack.

They also have a sense of smell about 80,000 better than hours and studies have shown they can pick up unsual things like tumours.

It also shows why a dog brought to its owners grave may lie their.

They can smell them.

I'll go for plane which sounds like it is going to crash

He had said previously:

We haven't even started to hear or perceive your thoughts directly.
...

Speak for yourself.

I hear voices like Michael.

...

, and he seems to be in New Zealand:

Don't know.

Try me in NZ

, this makes his answer even more interesting than an answer by an average member of this forum, because of the large distance between NZ and Belgium, where I currently am. Although this answer isn't the most polished, I see no major reason why it shouldn't be considered as credible.

So I find that the credible answer is correct, while the non-credible answer is incorrect, a non-random result which seems rather typical in these telepathy tests. Also, the large distance between the respondents and myself did not seem to affect the conclusion in any way, a result which is also generally observed, my "apparent telepathy" seems to be a global phenomenon.

 

[Dave Rogers]

So I find that the credible answer is correct, while the non-credible answer is incorrect, a non-random result which seems rather typical in these telepathy tests. Also, the large distance between the respondents and myself did not seem to affect the conclusion in any way, a result which is also generally observed, my "apparent telepathy" seems to be a global phenomenon.

And this is why I advised everyone to answer honestly, rather than sarcastically.

Dave

 

[phunk]

This 2014 post by Daylightstar was certainly not perfect, but I nevertheless think it was a fairly good post (this is why I quote it from time to time, not sure he likes that though).

Right after (30 minutes later, it was the next post) Daylightstar posted:
(two years ago), The Moog said:

Yes, we understand that you don't recognize sarcasm. You don't have to keep reminding us.

Your experience of diving could potentially make you a very valuable member of this forum (if you are honest, of course).

Completely honest. Add me to the list of people who has never received one of your (or anyone else's) "broadcasts".

 

[Daylightstar]

... my "apparent telepathy" seems to be a global phenomenon.

No telepathy is apparent though. Not a hint of it can be observed.

 

[Daylightstar]

And this is why I advised everyone to answer honestly, rather than sarcastically.

Dave

Actually, it is better to not provide answers to the 1 in 4 question at all. Providing such answers will simply perpetuate the delusion.

 

[Daylightstar]

... my "apparent telepathy" seems to be a global phenomenon.

Thought broadcasting:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thought_broadcasting
will likely afflict people across the globe.

 

[Dave Rogers]

Actually, it is better to not provide answers to the 1 in 4 question at all. Providing such answers will simply perpetuate the delusion.

Hence the suggestion that everybody simply say that they don't know, because "don't know" is in fact the true answer.

Dave

 

[JesseCuster]

And I wonder how you can speak for other members.

He's telepathic.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

... This, however, doesn't mean that I shall necessarily believe you. I can perhaps remind you that you did provide a quality answer in my second test on this forum:

(yes, this was you, in 2013, 3 years ago ... ). Your answer was found to be both incorrect and non-credible, in line with the general observation that non-credible answers tend to be incorrect (rather than just random).

It was interesting to go back and read that again. I answered honestly "I don't know" but then you said "I am not asking you if you know the number I wrote. I am asking you to guess it" so I asked if you meant we might subconsciously know the right answer without being aware of it and changed my answer to a guess at a number, honestly believing that was what you wanted me to do.

You decided my revised answer was not credible. I am quite certain if I had accidentally guessed the right number you would have accepted it as credible.

Since then I've become more familiar with the way you design into your tests sufficient opportunities to bias the results that you can continue to justify your belief in being telepathic.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

... my "apparent telepathy" seems to be a global phenomenon.

Pokémon GO can fairly be described as a global phenomenon. The same cannot be said of your belief that you broadcast your thoughts.

Other than right here on this forum, nobody in the world appears to be talking about some telepathic guy from Belgium. Naturally we will not agree on the reason for that, but since I can easily guess what your excuse will be I can say right now that it is not credible.

 

[Daylightstar]

Hence the suggestion that everybody simply say that they don't know, because "don't know" is in fact the true answer.

Dave

Any answer, even if an alternative suggested by Michel H, such as "I don't know", will perpetuate the delusion.

 

[devnull]

So I find that the credible answer is correct, while the non-credible answer is incorrect,

Im shocked I tell you. Shocked!

 

[Michel H]

...
You decided my revised answer was not credible. I am quite certain if I had accidentally guessed the right number you would have accepted it as credible.

Since then I've become more familiar with the way you design into your tests sufficient opportunities to bias the results that you can continue to justify your belief in being telepathic.

Let us assume somebody had answered "I answer plane, just because this is the word that I like best, among the four possible answers (automobile, boat, plane and submarine)."

Would you agree that such an answer would not have been credible, in a telepathy test, regardless of whether or not "the telepathic guy from Belgium" wrote "plane" on his paper?

 

[Darat]

Let us assume somebody had answered "I answer plane, just because this is the word that I like best, among the four possible answers (automobile, boat, plane and submarine)."

Would you agree that such an answer would not have been credible, in a telepathy test, regardless of whether or not "the telepathic guy from Belgium" wrote "plane" on his paper?

Yes it would have been a credible answer in any real test as that is exactly what a real test is meant to test for i.e chance and guessing rather than knowing.

 

[Dave Rogers]

Let us assume somebody had answered "I answer plane, just because this is the word that I like best, among the four possible answers (automobile, boat, plane and submarine)."

Would you agree that such an answer would not have been credible, in a telepathy test, regardless of whether or not "the telepathic guy from Belgium" wrote "plane" on his paper?

No less so than "I'll go for plane which sounds like it is going to crash", which first of all is phrased as a guess ("I'll go for" clearly indicates choosing among options rather than stating a known answer) and secondly ridicules itself.

Putting aside your cherry-picking, there are two ways of analyzing your data.

(1) Ignoring "I don't know" responses (hardly valid as the aim is to demonstrate that people do know) you have two answers, one of which is right and one wrong. The probability of this from random chance is 37.5%. The null hypothesis is therefore not rejected.

(2) Including "I don't know" responses, you have thirteen responses, only one of which contains the word you chose. I'm not even going to bother working out the possibilities; the null hypothesis is again not rejected.

You have not therefore provided credible evidence for telepathy in this trial.

Dave

 

[jsfisher]

This thread has reached a length were the performance of the forum software is noticeably impacted. I've split the thread at an arbitrary spot to start a new thread, here.

Please continue the discussion in the new thread. You may, of course, reference or quote from posts in this thread even though it is now closed.

Posted By: jsfisher