Will there be another US Civil War?

[Orphia Nay]

It's a question that gets bandied around on the forum in lots of threads.

Well, here's an article on the topic by Canadian author of Sweary History books, James Fell.

https://jamesfell.substack.com/p/will-there-be-another-us-civil-war

Let’s say that Scooby Coup goes to prison. Will there be Civil War Redux: The Racists Are At It Again? Eh, probably not. The most likely civil war scenario is the one where Eric’s dad wins the 2024 election.

For my master’s thesis in history, I studied rebellion and revolution. [...]

Say Coppertone Caligula loses the election and by some ******* miracle actually gets sentenced to a lengthy prison stay. That would be ******* glorious, wouldn’t it? I would dance a goddamn jig while showering in some expensive champagne. Anyway, it’s a certainty that the fans of the orangutan oligarch would be ever so pissed. And they’re heavily armed. Armed and angry is not a good combination.

But will they go to war? Almost certainly not.

The reason is simple: They’re not desperate. Their children aren’t starving. Their villages are not burning, their women not mass raped, their men not relentlessly slaughtered.

The orange ********** going to prison doesn’t translate into civil war, but him winning the next election could, because then millions of people will truly become a lot more desperate. Despotic Needy Amin rule and no more elections? Yeah, I could see that starting an actual war.

Agree? Disagree?

 

[Norman Alexander]

Nope, no civil war. I suspect there is far less support for the Mango Mussolini than all the shouting suggests. That is, like Trump himself, all his "support" is just so much piss and wind. And just a dribble of piss at that.

As stated here previously, all Trump's personal braggadocio in public is just that - a front, a show, a facade. At best, he's a salesman. At worst he's just a cross between a soapbox corner blowhard and Arfur Daley in a big NYC suit. Except for the diehard cultists, he's a tiresome piece of **** that just won't get wiped off your shoe, destined to be flushed fairly soon.

Speaking of cultists, it's become fairly clear that "the majority support of the GOP" is much more likely to be "the majority support of 100 select MAGA nutbags/cultists in the Trump office that Newsmax keeps on speed-dial every week plus Gym Jordan".

So civil war? Nope. But I have been wrong about my predictions here many times before.

 

[PitPat]

Yeah, not a real armed civil war like that other one awhile back. Seems unlikely. But in a way we already kind of are and have been for a long time.

If it is armed, it'll probably be pocket regions by congressionally drawn districts.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

With the Jan 6th prosecutions, the DOJ put the Fear of Prison into the militant movements and made it clear that there is no such thing as safety in numbers: you will be caught on camera, and you will go to prison.
Most militia type groups assume they have informants in their midst, and they are probably right.

If there is violence, it will come from near the top, like Govenors setting up their own militias and giving them unconstitutional powers, and telling cops and national guards to fight other Americans because they are traitors.

 

[smartcooky]

The range of the Fat Orange Turd's supporter base goes from dumb-**** moron who says a lot of stupid stuff but won't actually do anything, to real whack-jobs with guns who are quite capable of going out and killing people. They are the real scum end of American political society. The Fat Orange Turd called for these people to come out in support to protest at his court cases in New York, Florida, Georgia and DC, but very few responded.

However, now that all the chickens are coming home to roost, The Fat Orange Turd is panicking as he becomes more cornered, and he's winding up the violence-inciting rhetoric to a level not seen before. Imploring police to summarily and extra judicially execute shoplifters, suggesting that Gen Mark Milley should be put to death for treason. The angry little man is simply nothing more than a stochastic terrorist and his words are likely to influence that scum end of his political support, and jar them into action.

The most likely outcome is a significant uptick in lone wolf attacks on institutions and individual Democrats as well at their supporters at both national and state level - attacks such as those on shoppers the Buffalo Tops supermarket, the FBI Field Office in Cincinnati, Paul Pelosi.

As to an all out Civil War, no, I don't think so, but an increase in stochastic terrorism? Yes, definitely. Its already happening.

 

[Shadowdweller]

I'm seeing an increasingly polarized population. With certain subpopulations that are increasingly radicalized and that refuse to accept any objective facts or expertise; who furthermore believe unquestioningly in extremely blatant propaganda. On top of this, there has been a significant rise in attacks upon and erosion of the institutions that maintain the democratic processes in this country (the USA). This scares and angers the **** out of me. But not having any personal experience with civil wars, I have no personal basis for comparison. Voter suppression isn't exactly anything new in this country.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Yes, but not until 2171 and it will have nothing to do with current politics, it'll be AI versus Jesus Christ II. It'll fizzle out when airborne supercancer virus strikes most of the population. JC II will be deposed by his followers for lacking the ability to perform a healing miracle, and the AI tetrarchy will be overthrown by their followers for not having updated antivirus protection. Ultimately the only real winners will be the Volcano Witch and her flock of Time Hippopotamuses but I think we could all see that coming a mile away.

 

[PitPat]

Would it be the first time that a civil war broke out about between children of a lesser god?

Hippos all the way, I'll take the under on that. They are ass-holes, bite a lot and **** where they eat. Gotta respect that.

 

[Brainster]

The fact that no matter which side wins in 2024, the other side will see it as the end of the world is problematic. However, the lines are nowhere near as clearly drawn as they were during the Civil War, and that is reason for hope.

 

[varwoche]

Nope, no civil war. I suspect there is far less support for the Mango Mussolini than all the shouting suggests. That is, like Trump himself, all his "support" is just so much piss and wind. And just a dribble of piss at that.

Civil War? I dunno. But for all practical purposes, the GOP we knew and loved(?) no longer exists. It's been subsumed by the fascist MAGA movement.

If this is just a dribble, I hope never to experience the full stream.

 

[Thermal]

Money runs the USA, and I'm pretty sure money would be lost in a Civil War. So it won't be allowed to happen. This is a nation of corporate interests, not principles. We'll be kept just fat and happy enough to be docile, and with just enough outrage to make us feel righteous without breaking much of a sweat or actually doing something. It's all theater at this point.

 

[Apathia]

Yes, but not until 2171 and it will have nothing to do with current politics, it'll be AI versus Jesus Christ II. It'll fizzle out when airborne supercancer virus strikes most of the population. JC II will be deposed by his followers for lacking the ability to perform a healing miracle, and the AI tetrarchy will be overthrown by their followers for not having updated antivirus protection. Ultimately the only real winners will be the Volcano Witch and her flock of Time Hippopotamuses but I think we could all see that coming a mile away.

I'm with the Volcano Witch!

 

[Apathia]

Fear the coming war between PepsiCo and Nestle. Civil is now capital.

War between the states? Some have to secede first.
But if Texas does, it will have an internal civil war.

If Florida secedes, that's not a pretty picture.

 

[Steve]

The many groups with the most potential for violence in the USA are too fractured to form a coherent army with common goals. There will likely be a marked increase in political violence but nothing that could be considered a civil war involving two opposing armies.

 

[acbytesla]

The range of the Fat Orange Turd's supporter base goes from dumb-**** moron who says a lot of stupid stuff but won't actually do anything, to real whack-jobs with guns who are quite capable of going out and killing people. They are the real scum end of American political society. The Fat Orange Turd called for these people to come out in support to protest at his court cases in New York, Florida, Georgia and DC, but very few responded.

However, now that all the chickens are coming home to roost, The Fat Orange Turd is panicking as he becomes more cornered, and he's winding up the violence-inciting rhetoric to a level not seen before. Imploring police to summarily and extra judicially execute shoplifters, suggesting that Gen Mark Milley should be put to death for treason. The angry little man is simply nothing more than a stochastic terrorist and his words are likely to influence that scum end of his political support, and jar them into action.

The most likely outcome is a significant uptick in lone wolf attacks on institutions and individual Democrats as well at their supporters at both national and state level - attacks such as those on shoppers the Buffalo Tops supermarket, the FBI Field Office in Cincinnati, Paul Pelosi.

As to an all out Civil War, no, I don't think so, but an increase in stochastic terrorism? Yes, definitely. Its already happening.

I pretty much agree with the OP and your post cooky.

I worry far more about an authoritarian figure destroying the checks and balances necessary to maintain a democracy.

 

[Ryan O'Dine]

On the one side, you have the gun toting fascist Maga crowd. But who's on the other side? So far it's been the police and the courts, and they haven't had much trouble counterbalancing the violence. So I don't get who the opposing army is supposed to be. Antifa? Random liberals? Are extremist Democrats suddenly going to rise up with their guns and take on the Maga army?

I don't get the scenario people are picturing.

 

[Thermal]

On the one side, you have the gun toting fascist Maga crowd. But who's on the other side? So far it's been the police and the courts, and they haven't had much trouble counterbalancing the violence. So I don't get who the opposing army is supposed to be. Antifa? Random liberals? Are extremist Democrats suddenly going to rise up with their guns and take on the Maga army?

I don't get the scenario people are picturing.

*Nancy Pelosi straps on leathers and feathers*

 

[Lurch]

Money runs the USA, and I'm pretty sure money would be lost in a Civil War. So it won't be allowed to happen. This is a nation of corporate interests, not principles. We'll be kept just fat and happy enough to be docile, and with just enough outrage to make us feel righteous without breaking much of a sweat or actually doing something. It's all theater at this point.

Keep the pupulace restive, but not agitated to the point of reaching for the pitchforks. However, America's toxic capitalism is in danger of continuing to ratchet up the ire, as wealth disparity resulting from the accelerating upward flow into the hands of the few becomes untenable. Corporate growth for growth's sake and the attendant greed, coupled with blinkered, criminally negligent short-sightedness, will be the catalyst for the next cataclysm.

 

[Thermal]

Keep the pupulace restive, but not agitated to the point of reaching for the pitchforks. However, America's toxic capitalism is in danger of continuing to ratchet up the ire, as wealth disparity resulting from the accelerating upward flow into the hands of the few becomes untenable. Corporate growth for growth's sake and the attendant greed, coupled with blinkered, criminally negligent short-sightedness, will be the catalyst for the next cataclysm.

Right, but as long as our poor have iPhone in one hand and a Starbucks in the other, they ain't uprising. Hunger pangs drive open revolt, and as long as we are juuuuust robust enough for the poor to be well-entertained and have ample snacks, I don't think we'll be hitting the critical mass needed to overturn the table.

 

[Orphia Nay]

The range of the Fat Orange Turd's supporter base goes from dumb-**** moron who says a lot of stupid stuff but won't actually do anything, to real whack-jobs with guns who are quite capable of going out and killing people. They are the real scum end of American political society. The Fat Orange Turd called for these people to come out in support to protest at his court cases in New York, Florida, Georgia and DC, but very few responded.

However, now that all the chickens are coming home to roost, The Fat Orange Turd is panicking as he becomes more cornered, and he's winding up the violence-inciting rhetoric to a level not seen before. Imploring police to summarily and extra judicially execute shoplifters, suggesting that Gen Mark Milley should be put to death for treason. The angry little man is simply nothing more than a stochastic terrorist and his words are likely to influence that scum end of his political support, and jar them into action.

The most likely outcome is a significant uptick in lone wolf attacks on institutions and individual Democrats as well at their supporters at both national and state level - attacks such as those on shoppers the Buffalo Tops supermarket, the FBI Field Office in Cincinnati, Paul Pelosi.

As to an all out Civil War, no, I don't think so, but an increase in stochastic terrorism? Yes, definitely. Its already happening.

This.

And this:

The fact that no matter which side wins in 2024, the other side will see it as the end of the world is problematic. However, the lines are nowhere near as clearly drawn as they were during the Civil War, and that is reason for hope.

I'm heartened by the rest of the replies too. As a non-American you can get a fairly decent perspective of things but there is the fear you don't see enough.