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Why Obama won

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davefoc

Philosopher
davefoc
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I expect over the next few weeks to see a variety of explanations offered as to why Obama won.

My unresearched list in order of my unresearched view of their relative importance:

1. Economic crisis that worked against all Republicans
2. Dissatisfaction with Iraq war and perception that McCain was less right than Obama
3. Obama's thoughtful charismatic style more appealing than McCain's bluster. Also included here are McCain's various verbal gaffes.
4. Abandonment of the Republican Party, perhaps temporarily, by many in the moderate libertarian wing.
5. Sarah Palin

It is easy to pick on a single cause because it fits your personal belief structure as the most important and in the weeks to come I expect various pundits to emphasize one over the other. The fact seems to be that Obama would have won without some of the above but his victory would have been smaller. But even with all of the above reasons and some additional ones that might be added to the list Obama's popular vote victory was still fairly small given that almost all recent events cut against McCain.

The situation that did work in McCain's favor was the use of Fox News as a near full time McCain infomercial. My own guess is that this was the single most important factor in keeping this election as close as it was. For many people in this country Fox News has become their primary source of news. And those people are probably scratching their heads today with disbelief as they can't quite imagine how a guy that hangs with terrorists and radical black preachers, and who tried to steal the election with voter fraud and who is going to savage the country with massive public giveaways could possibly have been elected.
 
I hate to be trite, but, change.

It's been a long 8 years. While I don't agree with the views of many that it has only been bad I do believe that Bush was a poor choice and made to many fundamental mistakes. Katrina was the turning point for me. McCain isn't Bush but he is iconic of the right and that, in the end, spelled his doom IMO. I don't think America liked the direction we were moving in and wanted a change.
 
You know, if you want to get to something specific, the most important thing I can point to is "The fundamentals of the economy are strong."

If there were no better indicator of how John McCain was out of touch, that was it. While Obama didn't advertise that as much as I would have, he hammered it home by comparing McCain to Bush in economic policy. Basically, he sent the message that, not only did McCain say the fundamentals were strong, he actually believed it.

So I think "It's the economy, stupid" is a pretty good summary, it is than that. It was "John McCain is the "stupid" one who doesn't get that it is the economy."
 
RandFan said:
McCain isn't Bush but he is iconic of the right and that, in the end, spelled his doom IMO.
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It was a mistake for McCain to say that he had voted with Bush 90% of the time during the primaries. I don't even know if that is actually true or not, but because McCain said it, he couldn't argue the point as an Obama lie during the general election. He was also stuck with the double edged sword of appeasing his base that loves Bush and everyone else.

This isn't necessarily why Obama won, but I think McCain lost because he ran as a Republican after the Bush Presidency.
 
One of the commentators last night, I think it was on CNN, said that Obama ran the perfect campaign and made no real mistakes the entire way.

I agree. His campaign will be discussed in Political Science curriculum for ages. He could not have done better. He focused on the right states and the right issues, he picked a good running mate that complimented his weaknesses, he picked a tremendous campaign staff, he laid off of Palin because attacking her glaring weaknesses would have hurt him, etc.

I think that the quality of his campaign should give us all hope that his administration will be run in the same way with the same quality of people.
 
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I would rate the Palin factor a little higher. She alienated a lot of swing voters. I an not sure the "moderate Libertarians" are a big enough voting bloc to make much of difference.
Fact of life: Libertarians in general are a very small percentage of the voting public. They make a lot of noise, particularly on the internet, but it does not very many people to do that.
 
RandFan said:
<snip>Katrina was the turning point for me.
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Boy, you gave him a long trial. Hanging chads, crying to baby brother, and stealing the first election did it for me.

Vic Vega said:
One of the commentators last night, I think it was on CNN, said that Obama ran the perfect campaign and made no real mistakes the entire way.

I agree. His campaign will be discussed in Political Science curriculum for ages. He could not have done better. He focused on the right states and the right issues, he picked a good running mate that complimented his weaknesses, he picked a tremendous campaign staff, he laid off of Palin because attacking her glaring weaknesses would have hurt him, etc.

I think that the quality of his campaign should give us all hope that his administration will be run in the same way with the same quality of people.
Click to expand...

I believe the quality of his campaign DID give people hope, and that's why he was elected. And I do hope the his campaign foreshadows the quality of his administration, governance, and ability to effect the change people are hoping for.

I do hope he runs a relatively bipartisan presidency, and that he's re-elected in a landslide four years from now, because his presidency has delivered on the promises (implicit and explicit) he made.
 
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Vic Vega said:
One of the commentators last night, I think it was on CNN, said that Obama ran the perfect campaign and made no real mistakes the entire way.

I agree. His campaign will be discussed in Political Science curriculum for ages. He could not have done better. He focused on the right states and the right issues, he picked a good running mate that complimented his weaknesses, he picked a tremendous campaign staff, he laid off of Palin because attacking her glaring weaknesses would have hurt him, etc.

I think that the quality of his campaign should give us all hope that his administration will be run in the same way with the same quality of people.
Click to expand...

I thought about amending my opening post to include this. Obama's campaign was skillful, entrepreneurial and courageous. It was the most creative campaign of my life. Despite the chances it seemed to take there was hardly ever even the appearance of a misstep.

Also included in this was Obama's skill at maneuvering his positions to appeal to the widest range of the electorate. It is reasonable to see this skill as a bit cynical. I see it as Obama being skillful at an essential area of politics that per force is cynical.

I think I would rank this reason for Obama's victory at around a tie for third in my list.
 
My message from Barack

Subject: How this happened
From: "Barack Obama" <info@barackobama.com>
Date: Wed, November 5, 2008 2:01 am
To: "Jim XXXXX" <jim@xxxxxxxx.net>
Priority: Normal
Options: View Full Header | View Printable Version

Jim --

I'm about to head to Grant Park to talk to everyone gathered there, but I wanted to write to you first.

We just made history.

And I don't want you to forget how we did it.

You made history every single day during this campaign -- every day you knocked on doors, made a donation, or talked to your family, friends, and neighbors about why you believe it's time for change.

I want to thank all of you who gave your time, talent, and passion to this campaign.

We have a lot of work to do to get our country back on track, and I'll be in touch soon about what comes next.

But I want to be very clear about one thing...

All of this happened because of you.

Thank you,

Barack

Obama is going to be successful because he has built a vast grassroots base and as long as he stays
1) honest-if he doesn't know the answer he won't just make crap up
2)open-he will not segregate himself from the media and will keep us informed
3)on message-he will continue to stay out of the gutter and keep his message positive but realistic

Someone on NPR this morning said that running a campaign and running the country are not comparable or compatible but I disagree. If he will run the country like he ran his campaign, and my belief that the way he ran his campaign is a direct reflection of his ethics and morals and integrity, then he should be able to govern more effectively than any president in my lifetime. If the NPR commentator is right, and Barack just did what it took to get elected and after he takes office it will just be business as usual, then an Obama presidency probably won't look much different than a McCain presidency.
 
Here is what I think are the primary reasons Obama won (unresearched):

1. He is black. Most black people voted for him simply because of the color of his skin. Many did not even know the issues involved.

2. It was "cool" or "hip" among young people to vote for him (And the older crowd for that matter). Again, many young people had no idea of the issues. They go off of what they see on the Daily Show and in the news.

3. Liberal media pushed Obama much more than McCain. (For young people especially, MTV and BET only advertised for Obama).

4. Obama actually did have a very effective campaign strategy.

5. A good amount of Americans are very ignorant.
 
dudalb said:
I would rate the Palin factor a little higher. She alienated a lot of swing voters. I an not sure the "moderate Libertarians" are a big enough voting bloc to make much of difference.
Fact of life: Libertarians in general are a very small percentage of the voting public. They make a lot of noise, particularly on the internet, but it does not very many people to do that.
Click to expand...

I thought a bit before I labeled that group as moderate libertarians, but probably the term wasn't quite right for what I meant.

Libertarians are a small group and I think they are significantly different ideologically than what I meant by moderate Libertarians. I was thinking about the group represented by the various prominent moderate Republicans that expressed support for Obama in this campaign. Many in that group have been very dissatisfied with the Bush governance and if they were going to be McCain voters needed to be assured that McCain wasn't Bush. The failure of McCain to successfully explain why he wasn't Bush and the selection of Palin was enough for McCain to guarantee the loss of a significant percentage of that group.

Many of these people have already left the Republican Party so calling them moderate Republicans wasn't quite right either Maybe I should have just called them moderates, but that's a bit ambiguous also.
 
Quad4_72 said:
Here is what I think are the primary reasons Obama won (unresearched):

1. He is black. Most black people voted for him simply because of the color of his skin. Many did not even know the issues involved.
Click to expand...

I thought about including this reason in my list. In the end I suspect it was close to a wash. The black vote has been around 90% Democratic for awhile. Being generous to your point one might assume that the black vote went from 90% to 96% Democratic because Obama was black. So that's a 6% pickup of 15% of the population. And that understates it a bit in that more blacks voted than normal. But even combining those effect the increased black vote because Obama was Black probably was only good for a 1% or so increase in h his overall total. After that the calculation is more difficult. The vast majority of liberals were going to vote for the Democratic candidate anyway so no upward bump in that group, but there was probably some loss as racist liberals voted for McCain. The effect on the swing voters was probably in net negative. The idea that Obama was a muslim, or some kind of radical resonated deeply with some people especially with the older voters and that went almost entirely to the fact that he was black. So in net I suspect that a white candidate with Obama's skills in the current circumstances would have gotten somewhat more votes than Obama.

2. It was "cool" or "hip" among young people to vote for him (And the older crowd for that matter). Again, many young people had no idea of the issues. They go off of what they see on the Daily Show and in the news.
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I agree with some of this anyway. This is a subset of what I meant by Obama's charisma. Youth was definitely a part of that over McCain who showed various signs of aging throughout the campaign.

3. Liberal media pushed Obama much more than McCain. (For young people especially, MTV and BET only advertised for Obama).
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True again, but in net much less effective than the combined effects of Fox News and the various right wing radio pundits. So in net not really an advantage to Obama.

4. Obama actually did have a very effective campaign strategy.
Click to expand...
I agree. I should have included it in my list.

5. A good amount of Americans are very ignorant.
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When Americans don't vote the way I think they should I think they're ignorant also. Right now it looks to me like something over 52% of the electorate was well informed and thoughtful, the other 44% not so much.
 
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Quad4_72 said:
1. He is black. Most black people voted for him simply because of the color of his skin. Many did not even know the issues involved.
Click to expand...

I have little doubt that some African-Americans voted for Barack Obama simply -- or mostly -- because of his race. However, most blacks already vote Democratic so I'm not sure his race bought him as many votes from the black community as you imply. I certainly think it is an unfair characterization to claim that most black people voted for him simply because of race.

Also, if we acknowledge that some blacks voted for Obama on the basis of race, we must also include that some whites voted for him on that same basis. Further, I have little doubt some whites voted against him for that very reason. No one can say at this point where the chips fell. As a function of population size along it's possible that race cost him more votes than it gained, but that is pure hypothetical musing on my part.

I'm sure we'll see some analysis in the upcoming days or weeks.
 
Two years ago, when the country voted the congress over to Democrat control, Obama wasn't even running yet. The country sent a message then. It wasn't heard. And so sent it again this year, with now turning over the presidency to the Democrats.

So I believe a large reason Obama won, was because the country was voting out the Republicans, like it did 2 years back.
 
I believe Obama won because he ran an excellent campaign, had a clear focus, stayed on message, and looked Presidential when he especially needed to. Sure, McCain made some serious tactical errors. But I believe McCain could've still won if Obama had not carried himself and his campaign in such a professional way.
 
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