Web Bot Project Scientific Curiosity or Predictive Phenomenon?

Nosi

Illuminator
Nosi
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Jun 14, 2009
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Do you think the Web Bots are capable of predicting future events or are they just a scientific curiosity?

According to the Wikki, and others, the Web Bots have made some 'hits' by predicting happenings before they have happened.

* September 11 attacks - In June 2001 Web Bot predicted that a catastrophic event would occur within the next 60–90 days.
* 2001 anthrax attacks
* American Airlines Flight 587
* Space Shuttle Columbia disaster - In January of 2003 the web bots were going on and on about a "maritime disaster"
* Northeast Blackout of 2003 -
* 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake
* Hurricane Katrina and its devastation
* Dick Cheney hunting incident
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Computers have no dog in the race for Prophetic glory. They simply crunch numbers. Humans do have a dog in the race, and they are the ones who read the information spit out by the computers, decipher it, and feed it to their human audience. So Skeptics, what is your opinion?
 
Vague generalized predictions plus creative retro-fitting equals foretelling the future? :(

I'll believe it all on November 11, 2010. Or then again, maybe not.
:th:
 
Please list all the predictions that have passed unfulfilled. You might have to use two or three posts.
 
Can someone explain to me how a space shuttle disintegrating over Texas during re-entry is a maritime disaster?

ETA: Dr.Sid posted whilst I was busy making sure I hadn't missed Columbia being shot down by a submarine or something. :(
 
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Well-known is the ability to retrofit generalized predictions to actual events. When it can spit out "September 11, WTC, planes" before the event, let me know.


Having said that, "predictive markets" can, in some cases, foretell things. Someone in the know cracks and tries to take advantage of some stock associated with it, and so on. (It's interesting to note, though, that this did not apply to Sept. 11, in spite of reports and actual coincidental big trades just before.) As for the predictive market, which has nothing to do with stock markets directly, that was bashed as morbid when the government was setting up a big public one for this exact reason.
 
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About the september 11 attacks. If you picked a random day in a random year, how many predictions for a major catastrophic event within the next 60-90 days are there. And how often did they actually come true?

In fact, *I* can do that. I predict there will be a major catastrohic event in the next year.
Given the vagueness, I'll be right too, since a quick look at a year review teaches us these things happen with a frequency of greater than once per year, especially since I get to choose what is a catastrophy.
 
I'd be very surprised if a WW3-type event would occur in late 2010, though I wouldn't be surprised if our economy implodes in that timeframe. On the bright side, once we are told what will happen, we can behave differently.
 
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Define "catastrophic event" ahead of time. Then I'll be impressed.

The predictions are not only uniformly negative, but they're very U.S.-centric. The great human collective unconscious would worry about Dick Cheney shooting someone?
 
Nosi said:
According to the Wikki, and others, the Web Bots have made some 'hits' by predicting happenings before they have happened.
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I don't know if it's been edited since you looked, but at the moment the relevant part of the Wiki article says this:
Claimed hits

The Web Bot is claimed to have predicted several events prior to them occurring, most notably the September 11 attacks and the 2003 Northeastern United States blackout.[4] However, many believe the predictions are vague and, at best, pseudoscientific[5].
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Seems reasonable to me. Some people claim something, others say it's a load of bollocks, along with references to both. And examining the references is even more revealing. For example, the claim about hurricane Katrina gives two references. One is to a perfectly reasonable article from the Telegraph (for some reason the actual link is to Ethiopian Review, but that's just a copy of the Telegraph article) which basically says that a bunch of conspiracy nuts have made some silly claims that no-one takes seriously. The other is to an opinion piece from the Toronto Star which makes no pretence at all and being "fair and balanced" and just flat out laughs at the claims.

So I'm not sure I really see anything to talk about. All the articles discussing it clearly say that claims have been made, but point out that they're anywhere from complete nonsense to merely "so vague as to be meaningless". Unless there's actually someone somewhere that takes it seriously it seems a bit of a non-issue.
 
rightbrain said:
Define "catastrophic event" ahead of time. Then I'll be impressed.

The predictions are not only uniformly negative, but they're very U.S.-centric. The great human collective unconscious would worry about Dick Cheney shooting someone?
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I don't know about worry, but they sure did gossip. If the Webbots are a yap meter, that would send it off the charts. Americans don't shut up. Look at how many bytes Nancy's Planet X eats up? And while that site's a shade less than credible, she gets as much a listen from Webbots as does the New York Times.
 
Sledge said:
Can someone explain to me how a space shuttle disintegrating over Texas during re-entry is a maritime disaster?

ETA: Dr.Sid posted whilst I was busy making sure I hadn't missed Columbia being shot down by a submarine or something. :(
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Shuttle-bits splashed into the ocean, as well as land. It was also flying over ocean.
 
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