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Was Operation Barbarossa a LIHOP conspiracy? I guess so! (long read)

CHF

Illuminator
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Oct 12, 2006
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We hear lots about the "9/11 warnings that were ignored" or the "NORAD stand down" and how it points to a LIHOP plot to give justification to expanding US power in the Middle East. Incompetence, arrogance and out-dated systems are explanations that truthers have no time for. After all, "how can the US spend billions on the military and intelligence and yet not intercept 19 hijackers?"

I'd like to pose a similar question regarding Operation Barbarossa – the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union.

Stalin's USSR was probably the most paranoid police state in history – a place saturated with spies and NKVD forces; a place where children denounced their parents; where an anti-government joke resulted in death or prison. So how is it then that Russia was caught so off-guard by one of the biggest military operations of all time?

Consider the obvious German hostility:

- Germany had invaded Russia in World War I, destabilizing the regime to the point where it was overthrown by the Bolsheviks.
- Nazis blamed the defeat of 1918 largely on "Jewish bolshevism" and openly vowed revenge.
- Nazis fought street battles with local communists in the 1920s and had them arrested and/or killed once in power.
- Jews were persecuted across the Reich and Hitler viewed the millions of Jews in the Russian Pale of Settlement as the center of Jewish power.
- Hitler’s Mien Kamph devoted an entire chapter to the need to conquer and destroy the "sub-human" Slavs in the east – areas that would then be resettled by Germans.

But rather than oppose Hitler, Stalin signed a non-aggression pact in 1939. The previous year, as part of the purges of the Great Terror, 30,000 military officers were executed on trumped-up charges of anti-revolutionary activity, severely weakening the Red Army.

Then came the warnings, some of which included....

- Agents reported in July 1940 that preparations were underway to shift German troops east. Stalin didn’t pass this info on to his generals.
- Soviet intel received numerous reports of a Nazi attack from sources planted in the German Economics, Air and Foreign ministries. Stalin dismissed them as "disinformers."
- British intelligence, having cracked the Enigma code, passed on info on German troop movements. Stalin received warnings from Roosevelt and Churchill starting in January 1941 that placed the invasion in spring.
- On April 17 an informant in Prague predicted an invasion "in the second half of June." Stalin scribbled "English provocation! Investigate!" on the bottom of the report.
- Spy Richard Sorge, based in Tokyo with contacts in the German embassy, sent a steady stream of intel beginning in November 1940. In March 1941 he provided a German telegraph indicating an attack would occur in mid-June; on May 15 he put the date as June 20 and later sent a copy of the German order of battle, as did the embassy in Berlin. Stalin dismissed Sorge as "a little ◊◊◊◊" and warned his generals against "Germanphobia."
- In June intel reported that German embassy staff in Moscow were leaving the country with their families and German ships were leaving Soviet harbours.
- On June 21, the Soviet ambassador in Berlin confirmed the attack would happen the next morning as did the German ambassador in Moscow; Stalin dismissed the latter warning as a blackmail plot.

Barbarossa should also have been pretty obvious from front-line reports.

- From March 28 to April 18, 1941 German aircraft made 80 recon flights over Soviet territory, one of which crashed and was found to contain a camera, film and maps. Soviet air defenses was banned from shooting at the planes.
- For months border units reported a build-up of German troops. A commander in Kiev proposed moving troops into defensive positions and was reprimanded by Stalin for "provoking" the Germans.
- In the weeks before the invasion, Soviet troops reported a steady roar of engines coming from the German lines.
- One of the last warnings came on June 21 when a German soldier crossed the border into Soviet occupied Poland and warned of the impending invasion. Stalin had him shot! :eek:

All together Stalin received no less than 84 warnings!

At 4am on June 22, 1941, German planes blasted Soviet airfields and cities while over 3 million troops poured across the border.

Amazingly, when first told that German planes were bombing the USSR, Stalin attributed it to rogue generals and insisted that it all must be a "provocation" that was happening without Hitler’s knowledge! "The Germans are well known masters of provocation," he said. "They might even begin to bomb their own cities." :faint:

When told that the German government had in fact declared war, Stalin continued to hold out hope that it was not a real attack, before retreating to his villa where he sank into depression and stared off into space for two weeks. By the time he returned to regroup his forces, over a million Russians were already dead.

Within a few short months, millions more had been killed and SS death squads were ramping across the Baltics, Ukraine and Belarus. It was the worst military disaster in Russian history.

So how do we explain all this?

Was Stalin:

A) a foolish and incompetent dictator who put far too much faith in appeasement and not enough energy in looking out for the safety of his nation, or

B) did he stand-down his army and ignore the German threat in order to lose 20 million lives and achieve justification for expanding westward and enlarging his empire?

Using truther logic I suppose we’d have to go with B.
 
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor!?

There are even more examples than you cited. Stalin actually had intelligence officers executed for spreading disinformation for reporting that Hitler was going to invade (kind of hard to hide an army of 3 million soldiers after all). At least one German soldier defected and informed the Soviets the exact invasion date, he was also executed.

I read an interesting book (although a bit of a conspiracy type book) when I was in Russia years ago called Ledokol (icebreaker) which proposed that Stalin ignored signs of Hitler invading, because he intended to invade himself, and couldn't imagine Hitler beating him to the punch. Ego is a powerful thing among dictators.
 
Well, after the humiliating defeat in Finland, Stalin decapitated his military, and it was a shambles. That explains a lot of this. Plus, he was a madman.

Stalin's worst purges actually preceeded his attack on Finland. I read somewhere that after the Red Army fiasco he actually released some of the generals he had jailed in 38.

Also, Stalin had been assured by the head of the Finnish communist party that Soviet troops would be greeted as liberators by the Finns and so he didn't bother to give his forces proper winter clothing since the invasion would be over in a few days.

Stalin's paranoia also resulted in not using Soviet troops from the local area since he feared they might have sympathies with the Finns. Instead he brought in troops from southern Russia who weren't used to the cold weather.

Even though the Soviets eventually got what they wanted from Finland (though weight of numbers), the Winter War goes into the record books as more of a defeat. Finns killed: 20,000. Soviets killed: 200,000+
 
Stalin was no madman. Unless we decide that mass murder is, technically, madness. I'm sorry to say that I don't think it's a useful criterion.

Another element in Stalin's failure to anticipate the invasion was his extreme suspicion of the western allies, particularly Churchill and England. He (Stalin) thought -- with some justification -- that the English hoped to set Nazi Germany and Communist Russia against one another. Which suspicion in turn goes back to the Russian Civil War of 1918-22 and the Allied occupations of slices of the old Russian empire in those years...
 
Deleted as duplicate. Too many Stalins.
 
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Constantinople was an inside job too, by troother logic. Someone left that gate open!
 
Constantinople was an inside job too, by troother logic. Someone left that gate open!

Damn... Byzantine history was one of my graduate fields... Now I'm going to have to go back and research it. There was actually something... The Italian mercenaries?

Where's that Runciman book?
 
I think LIHOP, in this case, stands for "Let It Happen (because) OF Paranoia."

There is a lot to be said for the power of inertial thinking.
 
Stalin was no madman. Unless we decide that mass murder is, technically, madness. I'm sorry to say that I don't think it's a useful criterion.

Stalins antics were madness both on a moral level and in a more practical sense as well.

I've read (can't remember where, please forgive the lack of sourcing) that the millions killed under Lenin and Stalin (and thousands killed under subsequent Soviet leaders) robbed the soviet union of manpower that could have enabled a soviet victory in the economic contest of the cold war. Or at the very least, drawn it out another decade or so.
 
I've read (can't remember where, please forgive the lack of sourcing) that the millions killed under Lenin and Stalin (and thousands killed under subsequent Soviet leaders) robbed the soviet union of manpower that could have enabled a soviet victory in the economic contest of the cold war. Or at the very least, drawn it out another decade or so.

I think that's unlikely. The economy of the USSR was such a wreck, so misconceived and mismanaged, that nothing would have helped.

And I'd argue that the cold war was, in fact, primarily a political contest, not economic. While marxism would argue that the economic basis determines the politics, I believe that the political ideologies determined the economic methods.

I remember reading a science fiction writer (really getting off topic here!) -- Rbt Sawyer? in Analog? -- arguing precisely that: the cold war was strictly an economic contest. (I have no idea why this has stuck in my mind.) If that had been the case, of course, the Sovs would have had no need for many of the wacky measures they undertook, including the incessant purges of their own leadership, and the false trappings of democracy.

I'd better shut up before I'm told to take it to the political section.
 
According to Truther Logic, it's obvious LIHOP. How could any Truther think otherwise? (unless they believe that Bush et al are 10 times more evil than Stalin)
 
Much of our perception of Soviet power in the Cold War was just that; Perception.

When our intelligence analysts would say things like "Russia has between one and 40 nuclear attack submarines." the message that went into planning was "Russia has at least 40 attack submarines."

And of course, that's always the safest way to estimate one's enemy unless your overestimates are so great as to demand capitulation.
 
According to Truther Logic, it's obvious LIHOP. How could any Truther think otherwise? (unless they believe that Bush et al are 10 times more evil than Stalin)

But they do:

"Cheney may be the worst mass murderer and traitor not just in US history, but in the history of the world."
-Kevin Barrett-
 
It must have been a conspiracy! How else can one explain why the Germans invaded Russia with an armoured force only 30% larger than that used to attack westwards in May of 1940 even though the battlefield area was over twenty times larger? They clearly were not invading Russia with a sufficiently sized military force! They must have known the Russian military was going to stand down!
 
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The overlooked LIHOP example I always think of is McArthur's defense of the Phillipines in WWII. It's funny how much people focus on the "ignored warnings" of Pearl Harbor when they have the Phillipines fiasco, in which they knew everything about the coming attack, including where the Japanese base of operations was, but still got caught with their pants down.

Of course, this would require cracking a history book, something a troofer would never do.
 
Constantinople was an inside job too, by troother logic. Someone left that gate open!

And I suppose with Octavian with regard to the assassination of Julius Caesar, he LIHOP too?

How clever was he? Only 19, and in Greece at the time. What a brilliant alibi.
 

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