UK - December 2019 General Election

The Don

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The Don
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Thought we should have a thread about this.

Seems that the Conservative Manifesto is being written by:

a lobbyist for Facebook, Amazon and fracking company Caudrilla
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According to the Grauniad.

If there was any doubt about what is likely to happen in the (IMO almost certain) event of a Conservative majority.
 
Shame 16 year olds and EU nationals will not be voting after all.
 
From the Brexit thread:

The Don said:
Which makes the Labour promise for free personal care for all so disappointing. Well off pensioners will get to keep their assets and pass them on to their children and grandchildren allowing them to buy houses in areas with good schools, subsidise their tertiary education, ease their progress into the job market and so on.

The again, even if there is reasonable social mobility, high levels of income and wealth inequality is still a bad thing. If only 10% of people earn a living wage then it really doesn't matter too much whether that 10% are chosen by merit, chance or birth, 90% of the population are still screwed.
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Never forget the disgust many had for how they had to get the NHS started, Bevan's "by stuffing the doctors’ mouths with gold". We can't let the perfect stand in the way of the good. We need to help hundreds of thousands of people without assets to pass onto their children receive fantastic care. Yes it might be that we have to also pay for those that could well afford their own care. But which would you have it, the poor continuing to receive care - if at all - of a very low quality just so the rich don't get anything?
 
Darat said:
Never forget the disgust many had for how they had to get the NHS started, Bevan's "by stuffing the doctors’ mouths with gold". We can't let the perfect stand in the way of the good. We need to help hundreds of thousands of people without assets to pass onto their children receive fantastic care. Yes it might be that we have to also pay for those that could well afford their own care. But which would you have it, the poor continuing to receive care - if at all - of a very low quality just so the rich don't get anything?
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Given life expectancies and whatnot, it'll be the middle classes who benefit disproportionately. There's no clear indication to me that the care received will necessarily be better than today's, just that the cost will be borne by the state, not the individual.

If the intention is to provide the best care to those who need it most but who can afford it least, there are better ways to do that than by providing free care to all.
 
The Don said:
Thought we should have a thread about this.

Seems that the Conservative Manifesto is being written by:

According to the Grauniad.

If there was any doubt about what is likely to happen in the (IMO almost certain) event of a Conservative majority.
Click to expand...

Largest party for sure, but I wouldn't bet heavily on their getting an overall majority. Current bookies' odds are 1.83 overall Con majority, 2.0 no overall majority.

And if the Brexit party go hard at it while Lab and Lib voters vote tactically heavily (as I believe they will - we Bs certainly intend to) there could be quite an upset, with Lab at least being in the theoretical position to form a coalition government.
 
The Don said:
Given life expectancies and whatnot, it'll be the middle classes who benefit disproportionately. There's no clear indication to me that the care received will necessarily be better than today's, just that the cost will be borne by the state, not the individual.

If the intention is to provide the best care to those who need it most but who can afford it least, there are better ways to do that than by providing free care to all.
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And get into government so you can enact these better ways?
 
GlennB said:
Largest party for sure, but I wouldn't bet heavily on their getting an overall majority. Current bookies' odds are 1.83 overall Con majority, 2.0 no overall majority.

And if the Brexit party go hard at it while Lab and Lib voters vote tactically heavily (as I believe they will - we Bs certainly intend to) there could be quite an upset, with Lab at least being in the theoretical position to form a coalition government.
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I don't think that the Brexit Party will go hard at it.

Successful tactical voting could be a possibility - though IMO a remote one.

OTOH there are people like me who cannot vote Labour until Labour change their Brexit policy.
 
I will get to waste my vote by voting Green again. Will never vote Tory or Brexit, and won't vote Lib Dem because they branded me the same as Farage, not voting Labour either as they want to end FoM. So whoopdedoo for FPTP I might as well not bother.
 
The Don said:
Given life expectancies and whatnot, it'll be the middle classes who benefit disproportionately. There's no clear indication to me that the care received will necessarily be better than today's, just that the cost will be borne by the state, not the individual.

If the intention is to provide the best care to those who need it most but who can afford it least, there are better ways to do that than by providing free care to all.
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I'm sure there are plenty of lessons that could be learned from Scotland, where Free Personal Care has been in place for a number of years. I'm no longer directly involved, and I haven't read any analysis on the situation for a while, but my recollection from when I was working there was that it was a fine principle, and had a very direct impact on a lot of people, but that the long-term future was unsustainable with an aging population and raised expectations. Some sort of means-tested process is, I think, almost inevitable, though it can be something of a nightmare to administrate.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
I will get to waste my vote by voting Green again. Will never vote Tory or Brexit, and won't vote Lib Dem because they branded me the same as Farage, not voting Labour either as they want to end FoM. So whoopdedoo for FPTP I might as well not bother.
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How so ?
 
The Labour guy in our constituency is very nice, and he beat the Lib-Dem last time around, so he might get my (largely tactical) vote. And my Tory MP lost the whip a while back for using the phrase, 'n- in a woodpile' during a public meeting.
 
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The usual polling pattern in recent elections has been to gradually narrow the margin of whichever party starts out in the lead, until approaching election day it is "too close to call." I wonder if this one will be different?

There's an argument that opinion polls should be banned during any election campaign, so that those polls can't influence voters. The idea is that people would then have to vote based on their own personal opinion. Banning opinion polls would reduce the scope for tactical voting and the "negative feedback loop" of voters not bothering to vote because they think their chosen candidate is already winning easily.
 
My vote never makes any difference (except in referendums) - I live in one of the safest seats in the country. None of the parties ever put any effort into campaigning in this constituency - they all know the result is a foregone conclusion.
 
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Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Jo Swinson thinks that the people who support Scottish Independence are just the same as the narrow minded bigots who support UKIP and Brexit Party.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...age-both-obsessed-with-independence-lzzcpmmvg

That being the case she can do one.

ETA Not that it will matter it's a safe Tory seat anyway. Incumbent took over 60% of the vote last time.
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Fair enough.

It's almost certain that my MP will be reelected, he got over 50% of the vote last time. Labour held the seat from 1997-2005 but I cannot see a Corbynite Labour Party tempting moderate Remain-supporting Conservatives to vote for them and the LibDems, Plaid and Greens are all in low single figures percent.

The constituency was 50/50 in the Brexit referendum but that reflects quite a lot of Remain supporting Conservatives who might just possibly have voted for New Labour but wouldn't consider voting for 1970s Labour under Corbyn.

I honestly think that the pundits have got it completely wrong. The Brexit Party will keep their heads down, Labour will lose a lot of support because of Corbyn and their Brexit stance, the LibDems and Greens may pick up a lot of votes, but few if any seats and the result could easily be a Conservative majority of 100+.
 
Which, if any, of the MPs that have changed parties (or left their original party to become independent) are likely to be re-elected? I know that some of them are not standing or are retiring. Are those that are standing, all standing in their existing constituencies?

I would be happy to see the lot of them lose their jobs. I don't think it should be legal to be elected on one party's manifesto and then abandon that party to become independent, or worse, change to a different party, without holding a mandatory by election.
 
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