The Roadmap to Peace

[a_unique_person]

The roadmap to peace for Israel and Palestine has been released.

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/05/01/1051382046068.html

Directions to peace
May 2 2003
Source: Guardian





The road map peace plan, devised by the so-called Quartet of the EU, the UN, Russia and the US, has three phases. The process is meant to be finished by 2005-06, but each phase is conditional on the completion of the previous one.

PHASE 1

Ending terror and violence, normalising Palestinian life and building Palestinian institutions. Palestinians to end all violence and incitement to violence against Israel. Israel will take all necessary steps to help normalise life for Palestinians, including withdrawing from areas occupied since September 2000 and cease punitive actions against Palestinians. Israel will also dismantle outposts built since March 2001 and freeze settlement growth. Palestinians will undertake political reform. Both sides will issue unequivocal statements guaranteeing the other's right to statehood.

Now, I can see the whole thing falling over at the very first step, with the call for an end to terror and violence. As the Northern Ireland issue has show, terrorism is something that a very few, dedicated people can carry on. Making an end to terror a precondtion for the rest of the process essentially terminates it right there.

NI has shown that the process must go on, despite the knowledge that terror will continue. NI has made huge advances in a very bitter struggle. It is still not there in terms of peace and acceptance, but the changes it has made are a huge improvement on the situation of 20 years ago, when bombs were going off in central London.

 

[a_unique_person]

This is supposed to be a major event, but no interest. That says a lot.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2903499.stm

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair has made it clear that commitment to getting rid of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein should be accompanied by a commitment to ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Mr Sharon cannot be forced into an agreement
In the case of the second, Mr Blair is betting on the so-called "road map" - a staged peace plan drawn up by international mediators.

It is expected to be published once the new Palestinian Prime Minister, Mahmoud Abbas, presents his cabinet.

The Israeli Government is watching closely.

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon - normally keen to play the centurion - has been asked to take on the role of mute spear-carrier in the Iraq war. That gives him plenty of time to work on his diplomatic strategy.

That means fending off international pressure to swallow whole the road map - which is basically a collection of recent unsuccessful peace plans bolted together along with a timetable for a Palestinian state.

Didn't realise that was part of the deal, Britain backs Bush in the war, but Bush has to bring peace to Israel and Palestine. Now that's a big ask.

As this article notes, Sharon and friends want nothing more for Palestine than a 'mini-state'. I think that means they get to organise the schools and garbage collection.

 

[Tony]

To bad there isnt a jerk-off icon, that would be fitting for this "road map to peace".

 

[svero]

Making an end to violence by terrorists a precondition can always be a convenient out for the Israeli govt. should it not want to abide by it's side of the roadmap. The roadmap of course doesn't say anything about it being a precondition. Pro Israeli lobby groups in the US are undermining the roadmap, and the Israeli govt has also started to oppose parallel action demanding that an end to terrorist violence occur first before Israel takes any action, but refusing even to say for how long before they would move forward. That's not a promising start.

With regards to curbing violence. Well what exactly is meant by that. How effective was the US in stopping the O. Bombing, or the Anthrax mail attacks? How is it reasonable for the PA to prevent terrorist violence if there are fringe groups the occupied territories bent on taking the violent route? It's so easy to do something violent. Any radical idiot can attack someone. It seems short of locking up the entire population, if there's someone out there who really wants to attack there's little the PA can do. That's not to say they can't do anything at all, but rather that it's not unreasonable to assume that some attacks can still take place even with the PA doing their best to curb them. Look at the media mess that went on when the DC snipers attacked. A fraction of that would serve as an excuse for not moving forward in the middle east and there are hundreds of people who've recently lost loved ones who are prime candidates looking for some kind of revenge.

There is one promising bit in the roadmap though. There's talk of a monitoring system to determine if the parties have kept their side of the bargain.

"Relying on existing mechanisms and on-the ground resources, Quartet representatives begin informal monitoring and consult with the parties on establishment of a formal monitoring mechanism and its implementation."

If such a monitoring system was fair and put in place with an eye to measuring objective goals then it may be possible to determine whether the PA is doing all it can to curb violence. Merely stating vaguely that they need to end violence seems... well unreastic as a plan for anything.

Another point. Under "security" in phase 1 the roadmap says...

"Arab states cut off public and private funding and all other forms of support for groups supporting and engaging in violence and terror. "

That also strikes me as a little odd. By Arab states I suppose we could take that to mean Syria or Iran. Now supposing Syria wanted to support anti Israeli terrorist groups. What can the PA do to stop that exactly? It seems entirely out of the Palestinian's hands. Am I missing something? I mean they could prevent people from entering from Syria to stir up trouble or ask the govt to renounce funding or something like that but I can't see them actually determining Syria's policies. Who exactly is responsible for making sure this happens? and if the answer is that the Arab states are responsible themselves then it seems like the Palestinians are no longer in a position to keep up their side of the bargain.

 

[Jon_in_london]

Deja Vu!

Havent we been here before?

 

[a_unique_person]

Deja Vu!

Havent we been here before?

Yes, as the link says, much of it is the previous negiotiations recycled.

 

[svero]

Yes, as the link says, much of it is the previous negiotiations recycled.

It is and it isn't. A lot depends on whether the US and Britain are really serious about pressuring Israel to commit to the roadmap in parallel. If they aren't nothing will happen. Israel has the military advantage so without pressure from the outside I don't see why they'd do anything but on their own terms.

 

[Mike B.]

What about the Israeli electorate?

The Labor Party took a huge beating at the last election. They would be the ones in favor of the road map more than Likud. You would probably have to convince the Israelis that they would be safe under this agreement.