Hutch
A broken man on a Halifax pier, the last of Barret
....regarding withdrawal of all Israeli settlements from Gaza and several minor(?) settlements in the West Bank. As I understand it, the vote is by the members of the Likud Party and they can either accept or reject Sharon's proposal. I haven't seen any polls on this, but I get the impression that this may be close.
Reason I bring this up is a back-and-forth on another thread between AUP and Mycroft with Mycroft asking AUP what he thinks will be the result of this vote and what he wants it to be. If those two don't mind me butting in, I'll add my two dirhams worth and lets' see where we go with it then.
Note, these are moderately educated guesses, and I am not in the market for the Randi Prize.
PREDICTIONS IF SHARON WINS VOTE:
1. Israel re-locates 7,500 from Gaza and a few hundred from W. Bank in 2005. Many leave before the date, a few have to be dragged out by Israeli Army.
2. US gives Israel $1B Grant to finance re-location efforts.
3. Hamas steps up attacks to try and make withdrawal occur sooner, so it can appear that they were responsible for 'driving Israel out'. Israel retaliates.
4. Pro-settlement Fanatic attempts to asassinate Sharon. Fails, several bystanders killed.
5. No appreciable movement on negotiated settlement by either Palestine or Israel.
6. Gaza falls into anarchy, is finally brought under control by Palestinian leadership beholden to Egypt. (this is my longshot)
PREDICTION IF SHARON LOSES VOTE:
1. Sharon forced to resign. Replaced by Benjamin Not-yet-you-yahoo (sorry, I cannot recall his correct spelling and if this was good enough for the Car Talk brothers, it's good enough for me). 2. Israel reinforces Gaza settlement, riots and violence in Gaza as Hamas drums up support.
3. Europe condemns Israeli stance; US/GB support 'will of the people'
4. Israel strongly represses infatada, things quiet down for next several years, until next 'incident' and uprising.
As for my choice in the vote? Better the devil you know, in this particular case, so I would hope Sharon wins his vote. Just expect more instead of less violence afterwards as the radical Palestinians try to take the initiative back from Israel.
And your views?
Reason I bring this up is a back-and-forth on another thread between AUP and Mycroft with Mycroft asking AUP what he thinks will be the result of this vote and what he wants it to be. If those two don't mind me butting in, I'll add my two dirhams worth and lets' see where we go with it then.
Note, these are moderately educated guesses, and I am not in the market for the Randi Prize.
PREDICTIONS IF SHARON WINS VOTE:
1. Israel re-locates 7,500 from Gaza and a few hundred from W. Bank in 2005. Many leave before the date, a few have to be dragged out by Israeli Army.
2. US gives Israel $1B Grant to finance re-location efforts.
3. Hamas steps up attacks to try and make withdrawal occur sooner, so it can appear that they were responsible for 'driving Israel out'. Israel retaliates.
4. Pro-settlement Fanatic attempts to asassinate Sharon. Fails, several bystanders killed.
5. No appreciable movement on negotiated settlement by either Palestine or Israel.
6. Gaza falls into anarchy, is finally brought under control by Palestinian leadership beholden to Egypt. (this is my longshot)
PREDICTION IF SHARON LOSES VOTE:
1. Sharon forced to resign. Replaced by Benjamin Not-yet-you-yahoo (sorry, I cannot recall his correct spelling and if this was good enough for the Car Talk brothers, it's good enough for me). 2. Israel reinforces Gaza settlement, riots and violence in Gaza as Hamas drums up support.
3. Europe condemns Israeli stance; US/GB support 'will of the people'
4. Israel strongly represses infatada, things quiet down for next several years, until next 'incident' and uprising.
As for my choice in the vote? Better the devil you know, in this particular case, so I would hope Sharon wins his vote. Just expect more instead of less violence afterwards as the radical Palestinians try to take the initiative back from Israel.
And your views?