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The Boris Johnson ousting prediction thread

GlennB

Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
GlennB
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The date of 'ousting' includes plain resignation or the announcement of the start of Tory voting for his successor. Maybe keep your predictions to a half of a single month, though it's more a bit of fun (if anything in his administration can be described as 'fun') than an actual competition*

'Not this year' is a valid entry.

I'll kick off with first half of March '22

*The worst predictor will switch their avatar to 'Mr Blobby' for 2 weeks. I will provide a very nice .jpeg of Blobby :D
 
angrysoba said:
Early Feb of this year. :) Then we can welcome PM Patel! :eek:
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In which case I shall re-emigrate. Also, I hate you for putting the idea in my head just before bedtime. I need more Scotch!
 
After Covid has fizzled out or become endemic and everyone is fine with it.

After the next set of negative Brexit consequences have played out.

After another couple of rounds of sleaze.

About a year before the next general election UNLESS local elections go fine in which case he'll lead the Tories to victory in the next general election with a slightly reduced majority.
 
The Don said:
After Covid has fizzled out or become endemic and everyone is fine with it.

After the next set of negative Brexit consequences have played out.

After another couple of rounds of sleaze.

About a year before the next general election UNLESS local elections go fine in which case he'll lead the Tories to victory in the next general election with a slightly reduced majority.
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Depends.

I can see him being removed if, and only if, there is sufficient anger in Conservative constituencies and they write to their MPs demanding something is done.

There do at least appear to be a number of people expressing anger that while their elderly relatives died alone at home because it would be against the rules to meet, even in their gardens, Boris Johnson and his staff were having a booze-up that anyone else would be fined for.

The fact that they are wheeling out MPs who are even more ridiculous than Boris Johnson, like Michael Fabricant, almost itself looks like an insult to the public.
 
angrysoba said:
Depends.

I can see him being removed if, and only if, there is sufficient anger in Conservative constituencies and they write to their MPs demanding something is done.
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Truu, but this would require a seismic shift in the Tory rank and file. In the same way that the GOP is absolutely President Trump's party, Boris Johnson is consistently popular within the party.

Getting rid of Boris Johnson as leader raises the prospect of a person of colour (Sunak, Patel, Javid) leading the party - something that wouldn't go down well with the blue-rinses in the shires - or Liz Truss. That alone may be sufficient to stop a campaign to oust Boris Johnson.

angrysoba said:
There do at least appear to be a number of people expressing anger that while their elderly relatives died alone at home because it would be against the rules to meet, even in their gardens, Boris Johnson and his staff were having a booze-up that anyone else would be fined for.
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As long as Boris Johnson can pass the blame onto subordinates (as has been the case so far) then he can continue to claim that he personally has behaved properly and legally and he's very, very sorry for the liberties that other people have taken.

angrysoba said:
The fact that they are wheeling out MPs who are even more ridiculous than Boris Johnson, like Michael Fabricant, almost itself looks like an insult to the public.
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In the current parliamentary Conservative Party there are plenty who make Boris Johnson look comparatively normal so I wouldn't read too much into that. ;)

Sunak aside, ministers have backed Boris Johnson 100%, and a number of senior backbenchers have also given him the thumbs-up.

There are a very few senior backbenchers who have gone public with their criticisms (and allegedly more who are willing to do so off the record) but that itself may provide encouragement for Boris Johnson. The 1922 Committee is in effect trying to rehabilitate the Tories in the eyes of the public. If they actually wanted him gone, he'd be gone already with no warning and no opportunity to attempt a rear-guard action.
 
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Don’t get me wrong, Johnson is, like our Scott Morrison, an idiot looking for a village.

But both will go to the next election and both may win because the alternative is equally if not more ridiculous.

I will be very happy to be proven wrong.
 
lionking said:
Don’t get me wrong, Johnson is, like our Scott Morrison, an idiot looking for a village.

But both will go to the next election and both may win because the alternative is equally if not more ridiculous.
I will be very happy to be proven wrong.
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It is ?

Keir Starmer is almost the anti-Johnson, a thoughtful, analytical and trustworthy man with a well defined moral compass.

The Labour Party's policies are, individually, very popular with the UK electorate. It's only when they've been distorted through the lens of the right wing press and subjected to a dose of OMFG Communism !!11!1!!!1 that the public shies away from voting from them.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that it's very likely that the Conservatives will be in government for a very long time - perhaps the rest of my life - but that's not down to the quality of the opposition. The English have been, and are, in the mood for some right wing populism. I don't see that changing any time soon, especially as we'll have the economic effects of Brexit for the foreseeable future providing pantomime villains in the form of the EU and immigrants. :(
 
The Don said:
It is ?

Keir Starmer is almost the anti-Johnson, a thoughtful, analytical and trustworthy man with a well defined moral compass.

The Labour Party's policies are, individually, very popular with the UK electorate. It's only when they've been distorted through the lens of the right wing press and subjected to a dose of OMFG Communism !!11!1!!!1 that the public shies away from voting from them.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that it's very likely that the Conservatives will be in government for a very long time - perhaps the rest of my life - but that's not down to the quality of the opposition. The English have been, and are, in the mood for some right wing populism. I don't see that changing any time soon, especially as we'll have the economic effects of Brexit for the foreseeable future providing pantomime villains in the form of the EU and immigrants. :(
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Okay fair enough. I haven’t seen any charisma in Starmer, but you would know better
 
Dave Rogers said:
That's rather the problem. Starmer has no charisma, but a host of other fine qualities. Johnson has no fine qualities whatsoever, but gets round it with a bucketload of charisn'tma.

Dave
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It's not that long ago that we'd want someone exceptionally competent albeit a little dull as our leader as opposed to someone who appears to be a reality TV contestant. :mad:

That ship seems to have sailed. :(
 
The Don said:
It is ?

Keir Starmer is almost the anti-Johnson, a thoughtful, analytical and trustworthy man with a well defined moral compass.

The Labour Party's policies are, individually, very popular with the UK electorate. It's only when they've been distorted through the lens of the right wing press and subjected to a dose of OMFG Communism !!11!1!!!1 that the public shies away from voting from them.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that it's very likely that the Conservatives will be in government for a very long time - perhaps the rest of my life - but that's not down to the quality of the opposition. The English have been, and are, in the mood for some right wing populism. I don't see that changing any time soon, especially as we'll have the economic effects of Brexit for the foreseeable future providing pantomime villains in the form of the EU and immigrants. :(
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Disturbingly the highlighted seems to count against him with a lot of people on both sides...

I have a great concern that with reduced EU immigration being, necessarily, replaced by higher immigration from other nations it's going to lead to a shift even further right for the significant number of people for whom this is an issue.

So far as the question goes I'm torn, I think he'll either go very quickly because he doesn't think it's worth it for him anymore (stuff his backers, but that's his attitude) or because his party oust him, or if he survives this scandal he'll cling on for months, possibly to the next election or beyond. I'm going to tentatively go for very early February but I wouldn't be surprised to be too late or really, really early.
 
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